You Know, Maybe Woodbuck Is Right

[Deputy Nutz]

I am a tier guy. I like to break down position by placing guys in tiers. That way you don't have to make a blanket statement that one guy is better than this guy and pull hairs. I think Ward was in a tier by himself as a cover corner. Chubb was in a tier by himself as a pass rusher. I think those were the two most coveted guys on the Packers wish list and when they didn't drop or they didn't want to move up to get them they decided to get value with other tiers by moving down.

Alexander was for sure a tier 2 guy, and I think I had Jackson in tier 2 was well. That is pretty good value on both of them. The Problem with a pro draft is everything is based on expected value. Jackson could end up being much better than Alexander or Ward. Mike Hughes could end up being the best out of the lot. So you can debate the picks all you want but in the end it is not exactly predictable.

Derwin James and Edmunds weren't a big enough need for the Packers. I think that was pretty simple in the way that they choose to handle the first round.

[mraynrand]

Deputy, you need to increase your precision and convert to the value point system.

[Zool]

So you can debate the picks all you want but in the end it is not exactly predictable.

Preach

[Deputy Nutz]

Deputy, you need to increase your precision and convert to the value point system.

I will go to the thousandths!!!!

[mraynrand]

I will go to the thousandths!!!!

This reminds me of the hot Junior I tried to pick up in my Freshman Chemistry class. I told her that she had more significant figures - or something like that. I can still feel the slap on my face.

[ZachMN]

The American sports fan is obsessed with breaking the game down to mathematical precision using some sort of black magic voodoo statistical evidence. That is nice however humans are irrational and most communication is non verbal. Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine. What I take from the comments about Rosen are correct; he may have a nice career and be an above average player but sometimes there are negative attributes to one's personality that end up being more of a bane than blessing especially in a team setting. The most poignant scene from Miracle was when Brooks brought in Tim Harrer and Eruzione and some other players confronted Brooks about it and said they were a team now and you can't be bringing in someone at the last minute. When they left Brooks told Craig Patrick 'I got 'em'. Same thing when he was building the team. He had a list of guys he wanted and the Olympic committee was shocked that some of the 'best' players were being sent home. Brooks knew that all that glitters is not gold. I'll say Tom Brady over Peyton I'm a whiny stats obsessed bitch Manning in here for reinforcement.

[mraynrand]

Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine.

Great reference. How great was Herb Brooks - he died too young...

[hoosier]

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

Translation: Even a blind pig....

[pbmax]

Except that Edmunds was available at 14.

So was Davenport, and that probably tells us what they thought of his grade versus the need.

But Edmunds is a project outside and I don't think anyone saw him as an Edge rush solution. He might be able to play outside, he might be able to rush the passer, but if I recall the scouting reports, he was an effective blitzer basically because of speed and not any technique. He is as much, if not more, of a projection for edge pass rush as Davenport was.

[pbmax]

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

I think you are reading this backward. Highsmith is saying he already saw it, the volleyball coach helped confirm it.

Paraphrase: You hear all this talk, this or that -- meaning AH has heard it already. People talk -- AH expects the UCLA coach to have some knowledge of the scuttlebutt. When he doesn't answer, that speaks volumes to Alonzo.

Odd that it doesn't occur to AH to speak to the girlfriend. He wants the coaches scuttlebutt, not a personal reference. Mora Jr., had some unkind things to say at one point about Rosen before backtracking when he realized it was playing poorly. It doesn't sound like the most positive place.

What if the volleyball coach knew nothing about Rosen except that he was dating a player and felt the question was odd? The reaction means one thing to the coach and another thing to Highsmith, who already has an opinion on what he has heard.

Scouts need tidbits, something no one else has. Coaching rumors play nicely with them. This is where anonymous scout sources create endless clickbait content and help Bob McGinn sell subscriptions. If the rumor proves wrong, its scuttlebutt. If its predates disappointment, its iron clad investigation.

[pbmax]

The American sports fan is obsessed with breaking the game down to mathematical precision using some sort of black magic voodoo statistical evidence. That is nice however humans are irrational and most communication is non verbal. Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine. What I take from the comments about Rosen are correct; he may have a nice career and be an above average player but sometimes there are negative attributes to one's personality that end up being more of a bane than blessing especially in a team setting. The most poignant scene from Miracle was when Brooks brought in Tim Harrer and Eruzione and some other players confronted Brooks about it and said they were a team now and you can't be bringing in someone at the last minute. When they left Brooks told Craig Patrick 'I got 'em'. Same thing when he was building the team. He had a list of guys he wanted and the Olympic committee was shocked that some of the 'best' players were being sent home. Brooks knew that all that glitters is not gold. I'll say Tom Brady over Peyton I'm a whiny stats obsessed bitch Manning in here for reinforcement.

I completely disagree that the American sports fan is big into mathematical precision or statistical analysis unless it involves a playoff spot or a batting crown.

Miracle, as in the movie?

I also have enough trouble parsing what Alonzo Highsmith finds valuable in players without introducing an analysis of hagiography as well.

[ZachMN]

A lot of people on this board seem to be obsessed with something they can measure, and there is nothing 'wrong' or 'bad' about that just an observation. I use the movie Miracle as that would be the only way most people would be aware of Brooks' psychology. My father was very close to members of that team both players and staff so I know of a lot of intimate tactics he used. My point is to agree with Highsmiths 'gut' call on the guy by using Herb Brooks methods as an example of that type of thinking working. There are many roads to Rome.
And mraynrand, Brooks was awesome.....hardass as all hell but he knew what he was doing.....I skate with a guy who played under him at the U so I hear a lot of cool anecdotes LOL

[QBME]

The American sports fan is obsessed with breaking the game down to mathematical precision using some sort of black magic voodoo statistical evidence. That is nice however humans are irrational and most communication is non verbal. Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine. What I take from the comments about Rosen are correct; he may have a nice career and be an above average player but sometimes there are negative attributes to one's personality that end up being more of a bane than blessing especially in a team setting. The most poignant scene from Miracle was when Brooks brought in Tim Harrer and Eruzione and some other players confronted Brooks about it and said they were a team now and you can't be bringing in someone at the last minute. When they left Brooks told Craig Patrick 'I got 'em'. Same thing when he was building the team. He had a list of guys he wanted and the Olympic committee was shocked that some of the 'best' players were being sent home. Brooks knew that all that glitters is not gold. I'll say Tom Brady over Peyton I'm a whiny stats obsessed bitch Manning in here for reinforcement.

Love the analogy and am on board with one exception - the odds were not 100:1, more like 1,000,000:1.

The greatest story, and upset, in my book.

Best Brooks story I heard was when they played Finland for the Gold. At the end of the second break he looked at the team and told them "if you lose, you'll take it to your grave". He took a couple of steps to the door, spun around for one last look and stated "your fucking grave".

Greatest sports story ever.

[mraynrand]

And mraynrand, Brooks was awesome.....hardass as all hell but he knew what he was doing.....I skate with a guy who played under him at the U so I hear a lot of cool anecdotes LOL

He was a winner in the NHL, but never a champion. Some guys just coach younger, more impressionable men better. When I was at the U, he was a legend and the current NorthStars coach. I never met him, but I was a student athlete tutor (before the scandal) and a lot of the players knew him. One guy, Lance Pitlick always used his phrase "You look like you have a five pound fart on your head" talking to his buddy (name escapes me). Lance was no bright light in the classroom, but he was a hell of a defenseman.

[woodbuck27]

I am a tier guy. I like to break down position by placing guys in tiers. That way you don't have to make a blanket statement that one guy is better than this guy and pull hairs. I think Ward was in a tier by himself as a cover corner. Chubb was in a tier by himself as a pass rusher. I think those were the two most coveted guys on the Packers wish list and when they didn't drop or they didn't want to move up to get them they decided to get value with other tiers by moving down.

Alexander was for sure a tier 2 guy, and I think I had Jackson in tier 2 was well. That is pretty good value on both of them. The Problem with a pro draft is everything is based on expected value. Jackson could end up being much better than Alexander or Ward. Mike Hughes could end up being the best out of the lot. So you can debate the picks all you want but in the end it is not exactly predictable.

Derwin James and Edmunds weren't a big enough need for the Packers. I think that was pretty simple in the way that they choose to handle the first round.

It's too obvious that when OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds (I had him at NO. 9 Overall). comes off the Board at NO. 16 to the Bills; followed by Safety Derwin James (I had him at NO. 12 Overall) being picked by the Chargers; that the Packers were quick to respond and move back up to Seattle at No. 18, to select CB Jaire Alexander (I had him at NO. 34 Overall).


Other Picks:

PICK NO. 19 Overall to the BOYS - ILB - LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH, BOISE ST. and GRADE = 6.25, I had him NO. 30 Overall. By all reports Pre Draft he was rising on Mock Draft Boards

PICK NO. 20 Overall to the LIONS ... C Frank Ragnow - Grade = 5.78. I had him at NO. 60 Overall.

PICK NO. 21 Overall to the BENGALS ... C Billy Price - Grade = 5.90. I had him at NO. 71 Overall.

PICK No. 22 Overall to the TITANS - Safety Rashaan Evans - Grade = 6.10. I had him at NO. 16 Overall

PICK NO 23 Overall to the PATRIOTS - OT Isaiah Wynn - Grade - Grade = 6.11. I had at NO. 33 Overall.

PICK NO. 24 Overall to the Panthers - WR D.J. Moore - Grade = 5.86. I had at NO. NO. 29 Overall.and by all reports Pre Draft he was rising on Mock Draft Boards.

PICK NO. 25 Overall to the RAVENS - TE Hayden Hurst - Grade = 5.90. I had him at NO. 31 Overall

PICK NO 26 to the FALCONS - WR Calvin Ridley - Grade = 6.40. I had him at NO. 15 and by all reports Pre Draft and late, he was sliding down Mock Draft Boards

PICK NO. 27 to the SEAHAWKS - RB - Rashaad Penny - Grade = 5.85. I had him at NO. 92 Overall but by the Reports Pre Draft he was rising rapidly on Mock Draft Boards.

Comment woodbuck27:

I observed over the course of the last two weeks leading up to April 26, 2018 or the Opening Day of the DRAFT that Draft Analysts were remarking on certain Players and those remarks positive or negative influenced their drafted position. ie looking above we see Prospects like Leighton Vander Esch, D.J. Moore, Frank Ragnow, Billy Price and moving way up RB Rashaad Penny.

WR Calvin Ridley slide down the Boards of Mocks and that corresponded with him being drafted lower than he certainly was hoping for. That young Man looked like a bit of a train wreck when his name was suddenly announced and I look for him to have a chip on his shoulder this Season. I'm glad the Packers didn't target him in Round One.

I saw a lot of shock on QB Sam Darnold's face when QB Baker Mayfield went NO. 1 Overall. Life is difficult so 'suck it up buttercup'.

Up until the last week Darnold was more than less the consensus NO. 1 Overall Pick. Suddenly the buzz began and could it actually be RB Saquon Barkley; but the right pick was a QB and the BUZZ it could 'in fact' be QB Baker Mayfield became more than a whisper and it stuck.

I had Baker Mayfield as my NO. 11 Overall, but that competitive swagger and play action skills worked. This Guy works darn hard to make it happen and evidently he has that 'Star Power' whenever he walks into a room.

Again, Sam Darnold has something to prove and he actually ended up in a sold Market in New York, as did RB Saquon Barkley. They'll both make huge money in endorsements.