You Know, Maybe Woodbuck Is Right

[woodbuck27]

I do not agree with your second point at all. Most important positions to acquire talent are QB, pass rush and CB. Neither James nor Edmunds play those positions. Judged by position, you draft from outside in. If inside out or front to back worked magic, Andy Reid would have 5 Super Bowls by now. He has none.

I have NO idea what a grade of 7.17 means. I don't know what 6.06 means. It the difference statistically significant? Has anyone ever run a regression on NFL.com grades versus Average Value to see if they pan out? If they pan out, are they accurate to within a point? They are literally meaningless to me. I don't even know who creates them. What is their track record? Do the interns do the film work at NFL.com? Why on earth are they graded on an eight point scale?

Packer scouts have a track record. I can judge relative to their other results. I distrust them on defense more than offense. But somehow, despite 2 decades of struggling to find D lineman, they Packers have a very effective D line. They failed spectacularly in identifying and filling CB holes and in decisions about whom to retain.

But even in the wreckage, I can see the germ of an ability to find corners. Two of the guys they brought back were Packer draft picks who have played well before. Randall is still playing and just had his option picked up. Rollins looked uncannily like Hayward until he was injured and fell way off. If neither young player work out, its a poor result. But its wholly consistent with hitting on 50% of draft picks.

So who do I trust? No one 100%. Teams make terrible decision over time. Maybe this trade down will look terrible (or glorious) in 3 years time. Some of Thompson's worst high draft picks seemed to be about need (Harrell, Worthy) but some of his best were as well (Bulaga, Clark). But I trust scouts with a track record over fans who insist there is one answer (maybe two) and its name is Edmunds (or James).

There are limits to everything. I don't trust Alonzo Highsmith divined any wisdom from a volleyball coach. But the son of a gun found Sam Shields. I didn't.

My position is centered on why did Brian Gootekunst elect to move all the way back to Pick NO. 27 (14 slots) and NOT see the opportunity to select OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds or Safety Derwin James?!

At Packerrats the RECORD is clear that we didn't reasonably expect that either would be available when the Packers NO. 14 was on the clock. Personally, I gave it some chance that 'in fact' , Safety Derwin James, might be available. Who would have imagined that Tremaine Edmunds would actually fall to Pick NO. 14? Any indication of that being a realistic possibility, was certainly lacking at Packerrats.

The RECORD is clear that GOOT had Tremaine Edmunds and Derwin James in his high Priority Group of possibilities at Pick NO. 14 (that he lumped CB Jaire Alexander there as well. Yet he moves way back to Pick NO. 27 and thus aborts any reasonable opportunity to select either Edmunds or James.
The first NFL Draft in 1936 featured nine NFL teams and 81 overall selections. The 80th NFL Draft in 2018 featured 32 NFL teams and selections.

Some Trivia:

The NFL DRAFT ( Established in 1936) and held in Chicago in 1964, had an NFL-record 10 Pro Football HOFers selected in that draft. The number actually rises to 11 if you include Bill Parcells, who was selected as an OLman by the Lions in the 7th round and later went on to make the HOF as a coach.

Offensive linemen have accounted for approx. 18.5 percent of all first-round picks in the last eight drafts (2011-18), the highest percentage by any position. That's about the same percentage as all quarterbacks (nine percent), safeties (seven percent), and running backs (four percent) combined. CB's have been selected at a rate of 13 % in that same time frame.

The Green Bay Packers have been heavily invested at Defensive Back over the Past Five Years and Rounds ONE and TWO and using 70% of their Picks at Defensive Back or 7 of 10 Picks and where has that gotten them and defending at the back end, but as of 2017 (arguably at best) the worst Team in the NFL :

The Packers selected in Round ONE: Haha Clinton Dix (2014) ... will he get it back under our New DC !?; *** Damarious Randall (2015) 'just very recently Extended NOT in Green Bay but Cleveland*** and Jaire Alexander (2018) @018 Rookie. In Round TWO they selected: *** Quinten Rollins (2015) and his what? 19 Pass defensed (Career); *** Safety - Josh Jones (2016) ***; Kevin King (2017) and Joshua Jackson (2018) and another 2018 Rookie.

pbmax: You brought up GRADE and realistic Value. If I interpreted you correctly, that Grade means little to you pbmax and how any Prospect may be realistically evaluated that in all reality takes three Seasons. I look at GRADE as the same as a Mark in a individuals state of progress or ability to achieve a ultimate ceiling of evaluation.

If all Prospects are evaluated fairly, obviously you have to place a value of RISK- LESS for the 7.00 Graded Prospect than the 6.00 Prospect and a Mathematical Basic methods of evaluation and comparison of that RISK Factor is therefore arrived at. A whole lot goes into that NFL.COM GRADE. Other sites use some other method of Grading.

[pbmax]

A lot of people on this board seem to be obsessed with something they can measure, and there is nothing 'wrong' or 'bad' about that just an observation. I use the movie Miracle as that would be the only way most people would be aware of Brooks' psychology. My father was very close to members of that team both players and staff so I know of a lot of intimate tactics he used. My point is to agree with Highsmiths 'gut' call on the guy by using Herb Brooks methods as an example of that type of thinking working. There are many roads to Rome.
And mraynrand, Brooks was awesome.....hardass as all hell but he knew what he was doing.....I skate with a guy who played under him at the U so I hear a lot of cool anecdotes LOL

My question for Brooks would be how different was his process for a select team versus a college or pro team. Not just talent and tryouts, but knowing that the team would be together for less than 2 years and would need to gel quickly in the face of a monstrous challenge.

I have no doubt that Alonzo and other scouts are trying to predict how a player will fit into the locker room, or answer leadership questions. I just sense that a LOT of inanities enter into the discussion because the methods of information gathering are not well thought out. Like hiring a wacky private detective. You'll get to know some interesting stuff, but will it be useful?

Also, Herb Brooks gut is one thing. Former players as scouts wondering about personalty rumors of the QB is another.

[denverYooper]

I blame the American school system. Kids just spend too much time on things like critical thinking and context at the expense of a much more pure contemplation of numbers qua numbers.

[pbmax]

Woody,

BG answered your question on draft night. The Saints offer was too good to pass up. That is why.

Very few players are such can't miss prospects you won't move. Thompson wouldn't have moved off drafting AJ Hawk if you threatened to level a building, but in retrospect, moving down would have been fine.

So BG trades down when Jackson, Alexander, James, Edmunds, Davenport and Landry were all still on the board at 14. They probably had one or two others they like. He also may have called Seattle and other teams in the late teens to see if he could trade up. If they did, they knew that trading back to 27 for next year's #1 Saints pick was a steal compared to getting back into the 18th pick. One of your guys will be there, and you have an extra #1.

Imagine this: you think those PackerRats are quite right, need to seriously consider taking Davenport or Landry to add pass rush. But your coaches are telling you a CB under 25 and fast would be nice as well. So how do you prep for the draft? Do you call a bunch of teams in the latter half of the first round to talk about if they want to move down and how much it would cost?

If you are BG and did that, then the moment you get offered next year's #1, you know you are making out like a bandit AND get a player you want.

Good drafting teams do not fall in love with A player. They fall in love with value. Even more important than best player available.

[pbmax]

I blame the American school system. Kids just spend too much time on things like critical thinking and context at the expense of a much more pure contemplation of numbers qua numbers.

My gut was sure that 3rd run into a 10 man box was going to get us a first!

[red]

So was Davenport, and that probably tells us what they thought of his grade versus the need.

But Edmunds is a project outside and I don't think anyone saw him as an Edge rush solution. He might be able to play outside, he might be able to rush the passer, but if I recall the scouting reports, he was an effective blitzer basically because of speed and not any technique. He is as much, if not more, of a projection for edge pass rush as Davenport was.

Kids 19, he should be able how to learn anything yet

[hoosier]

I blame the American school system. Kids just spend too much time on things like critical thinking and context at the expense of a much more pure contemplation of numbers qua numbers.

7

[woodbuck27]

Woody,

BG answered your question on draft night. The Saints offer was too good to pass up. That is why.

Very few players are such can't miss prospects you won't move. Thompson wouldn't have moved off drafting AJ Hawk if you threatened to level a building, but in retrospect, moving down would have been fine.

So BG trades down when Jackson, Alexander, James, Edmunds, Davenport and Landry were all still on the board at 14. They probably had one or two others they like. He also may have called Seattle and other teams in the late teens to see if he could trade up. If they did, they knew that trading back to 27 for next year's #1 Saints pick was a steal compared to getting back into the 18th pick. One of your guys will be there, and you have an extra #1.

Imagine this: you think those PackerRats are quite right, need to seriously consider taking Davenport or Landry to add pass rush. But your coaches are telling you a CB under 25 and fast would be nice as well. So how do you prep for the draft? Do you call a bunch of teams in the latter half of the first round to talk about if they want to move down and how much it would cost?

If you are BG and did that, then the moment you get offered next year's #1, you know you are making out like a bandit AND get a player you want.

Good drafting teams do not fall in love with A player. They fall in love with value. Even more important than best player available.

pbmax:

Value is a Grade of 7.17 or Tremaine Edmunds that trumps a Grade of 6.03 and Jaire Alexander in any Math Class I ever attended and taught.

The Extra Pick next Year in Rd. 1 and acquired in Packer GM Brian Gutekunst's 'Razzle Dazzle', is already bought and paid for.

and thus .......... I conclude my stance.

[ZachMN]

My question for Brooks would be how different was his process for a select team versus a college or pro team. Not just talent and tryouts, but knowing that the team would be together for less than 2 years and would need to gel quickly in the face of a monstrous challenge.

I have no doubt that Alonzo and other scouts are trying to predict how a player will fit into the locker room, or answer leadership questions. I just sense that a LOT of inanities enter into the discussion because the methods of information gathering are not well thought out. Like hiring a wacky private detective. You'll get to know some interesting stuff, but will it be useful?

Also, Herb Brooks gut is one thing. Former players as scouts wondering about personalty rumors of the QB is another.

I would say when you're picking a select team you're not competing with anyone else and have the pick of the litter so to speak. And the age of the players is critical between the amateur who is still idealistic vs the cynical adult professional. But yeah that would be an interesting question for someone like him. I remember seeing his Rangers once. They did totally different warmups- Doing 'Russian Circles' and other more 'European' type of drills rather than typical half ass half speed stuff NHL teams of the time did.

Another thing Brooks did before one of the Olympic games which wasn't in the movie was he gave every player a notepad and pencil and said 'up till now everyone else has been writing about you, now it's your turn to write your own story' and then he left the locker room.

mraynrand did you ever eat at Campus Pizza when you were at the U?

[woodbuck27]

mmmm

[Bossman641]

pbmax:

Value is a Grade of 7.17 or Tremaine Edmunds that trumps a Grade of 6.03 and Jaire Alexander in any Math Class I ever attended and taught.

The Extra Pick next Year in Rd. 1 and acquired in Packer GM Brian Gutekunst's 'Razzle Dazzle', is already bought and paid for.

and thus .......... I conclude my stance.

Your grades mean nothing. These players aren't known quantities. It's not like the packers traded $5 for $4. It's more like trading variable x for variable y. The Packers and all other teams don't care how mel kiper or todd mcshay or nfl.com graded a player.

[mraynrand]

The Packers and all other teams don't care how mel kiper or todd mcshay or nfl.com graded a player.

[pbmax]

In another thread, I posted an Albert Breer quote from an NFL source about Josh Rosen. The source said when the discussion on draft day got to Rosen, someone in the room quoted a famous Princetonian not named Albert Einstein:

"You know the former Princeton [basketball] coach Pete Carril?" one NFL source told Breer. "The saying he had was, 'Don't ever recruit a kid with a three-car garage and a long driveway.'"

Which, to put it bluntly, is ridiculous. Andrew Luck's father Oliver is a former NFL player and current executive with the NCAA. Peyton and Eli Manning's father Archie was a longtime NFL player, and the younger Mannings never wanted for anything. Tom Brady's father was an insurance executive. And on and on. Per a report by SI.com's Robert Klemko in 2016, 13 of the 15 quarterbacks drafted that year grew up in homes valued near or above the median value in their respective states, and seven of those quarterbacks (including Wentz and Jared Goff, the top two players) grew up in homes valued at more than double the median rate.

Why Josh Rosen will win Rookie of the Year: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ie-of-the-year