The Next Few Years - Rebuild Mode

[SudsMcBucky]

I still have high hopes that ESB is the WR we're looking for opposite Davante. He's a 6'5" dude who ran 4.48 at the combine. Just a shame he was hurt all last year, but I really think he can be that guy.

[Upnorth]

I hate asking this but why is Rodgers gone 2021? How is this any different than 2005?

[Fritz]

No... my 4 year old is a Frozen junkie. If she thought she had relatives named Elsa and Anna?? There'd be no living with her, lol...

Your four-year-old is a frozen junkie? Man, that's harsh, Wist. Harsh.

[GB-Brandon]

I hate asking this but why is Rodgers gone 2021? How is this any different than 2005?

Many Many differences and this has caused IMO a lot of confusion among the fan base.

First of all NFL contracts and the salary cap are different then in 2005 and how it is all set up. The rookie QB deal is a way many teams now try to compete in the modern day NFL. By drafting Jordan Love the Packers have a value budget QB for up too 5 years. It has been widely used by teams so they can allocate assets to other areas of the roster and making it more manageable to re-sign there other players they want to keep so it relieves the overall cap situation.

Secondly while the Packers groomed Rodgers for 3 years on the bench this just isn’t practiced anymore. In fact, most rookie 1st round QB’s today are almost immediately put into the fire day 1, if not during sometime their rookie season. Pat Mahommes was even an outlier to this but was still inserted as the starter after his rookie season. This was after Alex Smith led them to a division championship and playoff berth with Smith then being traded during the offseason.

Lastly, the dynamics of the situation are completely different. Ted Thompson had Rodgers fall too him and many had Rodgers as the No.1 overall pick in the draft. It was a weird year where nobody was looking for QB’s. This is a situation where the Packers traded up to draft a QB which some believe was the 5th or 6th best QB in the draft. The number 1 player in the draft simply didn’t just fall to us. This willingness to move up after a 13-3 season has to point to there already being some decay somewhere in the organization with Rodgers.

So overall the value is just too high to keep JL on the bench for 3 or 4 years with his rookie contract . On top of this the “daily distraction” would be too much. I mean can you imagaine what’s gonna be the narrative every time Rodgers has a bad game? This will become cancerous to the locker room and the organization and the pressure building with “Social Media” etc etc will not allow for JL to simply just sit on the bench for 3-4 years. This simply isn’t 2004-2005. LaFluer/Gute are gonna get asked way more by the media every day about Jordan Love then Belichick was asked about Antonio Brown last season. It’s never gonna work.

[RashanGary]

3 years learning would make sense. I wouldnt be disappointed if we move on from Rodgers when he's 39/40. Great timing gute!

[GB-Brandon]

3 years learning would make sense. I wouldnt be disappointed if we move on from Rodgers when he's 39/40. Great timing gute!

Not Really. I question how much you can really learn from basically sitting on the bench for 3 years holding a clipboard. You need live rounds at some point against top NFL competition.

Hundley obviously “Didn’t learn from the Bench”

Nobody in the league is practicing this with a 1st round pick.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Many Many differences and this has caused IMO a lot of confusion among the fan base.

First of all NFL contracts and the salary cap are different then in 2005 and how it is all set up. The rookie QB deal is a way many teams now try to compete in the modern day NFL. By drafting Jordan Love the Packers have a value budget QB for up too 5 years. It has been widely used by teams so they can allocate assets to other areas of the roster and making it more manageable to re-sign there other players they want to keep so it relieves the overall cap situation.

Secondly while the Packers groomed Rodgers for 3 years on the bench this just isn’t practiced anymore. In fact, most rookie 1st round QB’s today are almost immediately put into the fire day 1, if not during sometime their rookie season. Pat Mahommes was even an outlier to this but was still inserted as the starter after his rookie season. This was after Alex Smith led them to a division championship and playoff berth with Smith then being traded during the offseason.

Lastly, the dynamics of the situation are completely different. Ted Thompson had Rodgers fall too him and many had Rodgers as the No.1 overall pick in the draft. It was a weird year where nobody was looking for QB’s. This is a situation where the Packers traded up to draft a QB which some believe was the 5th or 6th best QB in the draft. The number 1 player in the draft simply didn’t just fall to us. This willingness to move up after a 13-3 season has to point to there already being some decay somewhere in the organization with Rodgers.

So overall the value is just too high to keep JL on the bench for 3 or 4 years with his rookie contract . On top of this the “daily distraction” would be too much. I mean can you imagaine what’s gonna be the narrative every time Rodgers has a bad game? This will become cancerous to the locker room and the organization and the pressure building with “Social Media” etc etc will not allow for JL to simply just sit on the bench for 3-4 years. This simply isn’t 2004-2005. LaFluer/Gute are gonna get asked way more by the media every day about Jordan Love then Belichick was asked about Antonio Brown last season. It’s never gonna work.

Most of these are really good takes, but I think the part about what happened to Rodgers isn't reality. I think a lot of people thought there were no QBs were drafting high that year. If Rodgers was truly that highly regarded, he wouldn't have dropped to the #24 pick. There was a lot of skepticism about Rodgers because all Tedford QBs had failed up to that point (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, and many others). The revisionist thinking about no team needing a QB is nonsense. If Rodgers was an elite QB prospect, several teams would have drafted him:

#2 Miami started a terrible A.J. Feeley (12 TDs, 15 ints) in 2004. They replaced him with 34-year-old Gus Frerotte in 2005.
#3 Cleveland started 34 year-old Jeff Garcia (10 TDs, 9 ints) in 2004. They replaced him with 33-year-old Trent Dilfer in 2005.
#5 Tampa Bay started an average Brian Griese (20 TDs, 12 ints) in 2004. They replaced him with a 3rd round pick from 2003, Chris Simms, in 2005.
#8 Arizona started a terrible Josh McCown (11 TDs, 10 ints) in 2004. They replaced him with Kurt Warner in 2005, but Warner was coming off three miserable years (with St. Louis and NY Giants).
#9 Washington started 34 year-old Mark Brunett (7 TDs, 6 ints) in 2004. Brunell was coming off a couple of down years and was at the end of his career.
#10 Detroit started Joey Harrington in 2004. After three years in the league Harrington had shown he wasn't going to amount to much in the league.
#11 & #20 Dallas started 41 year-old Vinny Testaverde (17 TDs, 20 ints) in 2004. They replaced him with 34-year-old Drew Bledsoe in 2005, but Bledsoe was coming off three average years in Buffalo.
#13 New Orleans started an average Aaron Brooks (21 TDs, 16 ints) in 2004 and 2005 with no prospect waiting in the wings.
#20 Oakland started 32-year-old Kerry Collins (21 TDs, 20 ints) in 2004 and 2005 with no prospect waiting in the wings.

If Rodgers had truly been that highly regarded around league circles, there's no way these teams would have passed on him.

Somebody previously posted the quotes from scouts around the league regarding Rodgers.

[mraynrand]

Not Really. I question how much you can really learn from basically sitting on the bench for 3 years holding a clipboard. You need live rounds at some point against top NFL competition.

Hundley obviously “Didn’t learn from the Bench”

But Rodgers 'did.' No, I don't believe that for a second. Rodgers - and probably Love - just have a higher ceiling. Rodgers looked fantastic in 2007 throwing the route tree to Jennings in pre-game practices (saw him twice) and was fine versus Dallas. did those years help him dump the Tedford programming for a better form, etc. Maybe. Maybe he didn't;'t need two years. Love (hopefully) will be the same - unless you believe he has a low ceiling. Eventually we will find out.

[mraynrand]

If Rodgers had truly been that highly regarded around league circles, there's no way these teams would have passed on him.

The most critical point, and certainly was true. Cleveland talk shows were laughing at GB for drafting him. "Terrible Tedford QB* - will be as bad as Joey" is the gist of what I recall.




*edit: Not that Rodgers was himself particularly terrible (he wasn't) but that the talking heads (and others) were saying Tedford QBs were terrible in the NFL...

[pbmax]

Many Many differences and this has caused IMO a lot of confusion among the fan base.

First of all NFL contracts and the salary cap are different then in 2005 and how it is all set up. The rookie QB deal is a way many teams now try to compete in the modern day NFL. By drafting Jordan Love the Packers have a value budget QB for up too 5 years. It has been widely used by teams so they can allocate assets to other areas of the roster and making it more manageable to re-sign there other players they want to keep so it relieves the overall cap situation.

Two things changed. One, even top of the first round QB draft picks are now slotted. They no longer get Stafford sized bonuses. So all first round QBs are cheaper. but this applies less so to back end of first round picks. The length of contact hasn't changed, most big bonus deals ran 5 years.

Coaches have adapted to the found cap money by being more open to QBs coming in and running offenses that aren't duplicates of the 500 page playbooks of the past.

So former early first round picks almost HAD to start because you couldn't afford a good backup. Not true so much anymore.

Packers offense could qualify. But Rodgers cannot be comfortably cut this year and debate rages how easy it would be to do it after 2020.

Secondly while the Packers groomed Rodgers for 3 years on the bench this just isn’t practiced anymore. In fact, most rookie 1st round QB’s today are almost immediately put into the fire day 1, if not during sometime their rookie season. Pat Mahommes was even an outlier to this but was still inserted as the starter after his rookie season. This was after Alex Smith led them to a division championship and playoff berth with Smith then being traded during the offseason.

It wasn't practice before Rodgers. Even Marino only sat a year. Elway was going to sit but he started his rookie year 10 times. Learning on the bench was over in the 80s. Rodgers was an anomaly. The only recent comparison is Mahomes who sat for one year.

Lastly, the dynamics of the situation are completely different. Ted Thompson had Rodgers fall too him and many had Rodgers as the No.1 overall pick in the draft. It was a weird year where nobody was looking for QB’s. This is a situation where the Packers traded up to draft a QB which some believe was the 5th or 6th best QB in the draft. The number 1 player in the draft simply didn’t just fall to us. This willingness to move up after a 13-3 season has to point to there already being some decay somewhere in the organization with Rodgers.

Possibly, but its just speculation. Just as possible things continue as they were.

So overall the value is just too high to keep JL on the bench for 3 or 4 years with his rookie contract . On top of this the “daily distraction” would be too much. I mean can you imagaine what’s gonna be the narrative every time Rodgers has a bad game? This will become cancerous to the locker room and the organization and the pressure building with “Social Media” etc etc will not allow for JL to simply just sit on the bench for 3-4 years. This simply isn’t 2004-2005. LaFluer/Gute are gonna get asked way more by the media every day about Jordan Love then Belichick was asked about Antonio Brown last season. It’s never gonna work.

He is going to sit for at least a year and likely two. 3 or 4 doesn't make that much of a difference. They would extend him after he starts and doesn't fall apart just as they did Rodgers. More importantly is how Rodgers reacts and plays. Plus his health.

[pbmax]

I agree with Harv about the draft needs of teams in 2005, but Schneider and Thompson both have said if he got past the top 10 (don't remember which team they thought was the last high pick looking for a first round QB) he was likely going to fall to the last 1/3 of the round.

That list of their QBs is pathetic and fun, but you also need to know what a QB in the Top 8 was expensive AND some of these teams were already sending good money on vet replacements.

John Schneider, now the Seattle Seahawks GM but one of Thompson’s top personnel lieutenants at the time: I think it was the Thursday before the draft started, Ted and I were sitting there watching film and we had a TV on, and (then-NFL Network draft analyst) Mike Mayock was going through his mock draft. And he had Aaron (falling to the Packers), because if you got past 12 or 14, right in there, all those teams had quarterbacks already. So we looked at each other like, ‘That could happen.’

They thought 12 or 14.

https://theathletic.com/1760221/2020/04/22/i-do-not-look-happy-an-oral-history-of-aaron-rodgers-draft-day-free-fall/

[falco]

No one is going to know whether this was a good decision or a bad one for a few years at least. All we can do now is debate, like we did in 2005 on JSO.

Adding a high-potential backup QB gives the team plenty of optionality moving into the back end of Rodgers career. I don't see this as pushing Rodgers out the door; it gives the team flexibility and creates a succession plan so they are protected against catastrophic scenarios.

Could we have picked an future HoF inductee who brought us over the top? Probably unlikely at where we were drafting.

There's a good chance Love will be a bust, but you do homework and hope that doesn't happen. It's a gamble no matter what.

I have a hard time faulting the team for their decision. I'm not a draft expert so can't say if any of their picks were reaches.

[texaspackerbacker]

Certainly he has the tools not to be a bust. With a lot of teams, however, Love's propensity to throw interceptions would undoubtedly doom his career and make him a bust. With the Packers, though, and presumably adopting Aaron Rodgers' magnificent propensity not to throw interceptions, I'd say there is a good chance - better in Green Bay than anywhere else - of his developing as our next great QB.

The other pertinent fact is that coming off a 13-3 season, our "needs" apparently weren't quite as obvious as the panicky portion of the Packer fans seem to think. We could afford to gamble - I guess. I'm not saying it's what I woulda done, but I ain't the GM; Neither are any of us in here.

[GB-Brandon]

Wow, you guys collectively should start a band.

You can call it, “The Spin Doctors”.

[GB-Brandon]

All these “Fairy Tales” come to an end as soon Rodgers decides to take his ball and go home which I completely expect sooner then later with this bullshit situation the organization has put him in.

It’s really interesting how we haven’t heard anything yet from Rodgers about this as he carefully calculates his plan to get the fuck out of this dysfunction.