2020 Wide Receivers

[Radagast]

A year of experience with HC LaFleur's Offense System will translate into better play, especially for the O-Line that does the primary blocking. Many offensive starters are also playing out contracts or looking for contract extensions. Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari lead the group. Additionally, rookie RB A.J. Dillon will supply fresh legs to reduce the wear and tear on the RB corp. WRs Adams, Funchess, and Lazard / MVS will all need to perform better in 2020. The word is consistency ! The real difference maker, IMO, will need to come from TE pass completions and blocking.

We all know what Rodgers can do with a football. The question this season as last season is weather receivers can get open for him to pass to. He does not want to hold the ball waiting for someone to pass to as he runs for his life. More timing patterns and better execution could see large gains.

[ThunderDan]

So if you need to make 4 first downs to kick a FG here are you chances based on 2nd down distance percentages above:
2nd and 10 - roughly 9%
2nd and 8 - roughly 13%
2nd and 5 - roughly 32%

[Radagast]

So if you need to make 4 first downs to kick a FG here are you chances based on 2nd down distance percentages above:
2nd and 10 - roughly 9%
2nd and 8 - roughly 13%
2nd and 5 - roughly 32%

Great post TD !

The trend that the NFL has supported with rules changes over multiple decades has been toward the pass over the run. It's more exciting to watch footballs in the air over hard to follow running plays. Running the ball may not be sexy, but it can still offer a more safe offensive course. Wearing down defenses with good blocking/running can result in out of gas defenders as fresher RBs are platooned in/out.

Grind it out smash mouth football is not as popular as aerial displays, but if done right can be very effective.

[texaspackerbacker]

Of course as usual you are wrong.

From PhD Football, on 2 and 10 you roughly make a first down 55% of the time.
On 2nd and 8 the chances are 60% or 5% greater.
On 2nd and 5 the chances jump to roughly 75%.

If the chance on 2 and 10 you roughly make a first down 55% of the time, then presumably, it is significantly greater if you pass on first down. The chance for a bigger gain is much greater too.

As far as the reality of what we're actually gonna do is concerned, I suppose RG's 46/54 run/pass thing is about right. However, that as well as the 42/58 from last season are skewed by game situations - protecting a lead or whatever. I'm just saying what I wish - virtually no first down running, pass first, etc. - a helluva lot closer to Bill Walsh or Air Coryell than to Woody Hayes. "Grind it out smash mouth football" is definitely not the way to go. The best hope we have is that LaFleur again has the good sense to subordinate his ego and go with what works best given the personnel he has.

[ThunderDan]

If the chance on 2 and 10 you roughly make a first down 55% of the time, then presumably, it is significantly greater if you pass on first down. The chance for a bigger gain is much greater too.

As far as the reality of what we're actually gonna do is concerned, I suppose RG's 46/54 run/pass thing is about right. However, that as well as the 42/58 from last season are skewed by game situations - protecting a lead or whatever. I'm just saying what I wish - virtually no first down running, pass first, etc. - a helluva lot closer to Bill Walsh or Air Coryell than to Woody Hayes. "Grind it out smash mouth football" is definitely not the way to go. The best hope we have is that LaFleur again has the good sense to subordinate his ego and go with what works best given the personnel he has.

The stats have nothing to do with what plays you are running. You could either run or pass. It has nothing to do with smash mouth football.

A completed pass for 5 yards or a run for 5 yards on 1st down makes it 20% more likely to get a 1st down than if you throw an incompletion or get your run stuffed for no gain.

[RashanGary]

2nd and 5 is a great down to take a shot down the field too. So that run sets up a really favorable defense for the passing game to attack

[texaspackerbacker]

The stats have nothing to do with what plays you are running. You could either run or pass. It has nothing to do with smash mouth football.

A completed pass for 5 yards or a run for 5 yards on 1st down makes it 20% more likely to get a 1st down than if you throw an incompletion or get your run stuffed for no gain.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that 42/58 or 51/49 or 36/54 represented total run plays/total pass plays in games. Thus, it has everything to do with what kind of plays you are running. And as I said, in all those cases, some of the running comes in circumstances like protecting leads, running clock, the end of the half, whatever.

Of course 2nd and 5 is better than 2nd and 10, but IMO, that 20% if accurate is not as big a deal as the prospect of throwing for 15 or 20 or 30 or 40 on first down - and completing it a decent percentage of times - rather than wasting downs by running on first down and then sometimes second too.

And no, RG, with the Packer O Line, 2nd and 5 is not a great time to take a deep shot. Even 2nd and 2 or 3 is not, as if you fail on the deep shot, you are set up to run when the D expects it. And the Packers O Line is at its worst in that situation. That also kinda describes why I hate the idea of getting into a funk of running on first down.

And some like to talk about run run run then do play action. Our O Line is porous enough that teams don't need to blitz. Consequently, they tend to have plenty of coverage even on play action.

[pbmax]

While that's funny, there's probably some truth to it, but from the opposite angle: If you show you can run on first down, you strengthen play action significantly, so you pass more and run less.

The numbers show that running better has little effect on play action success.

Defenses are built from the ground up to worry about the run first.

[pbmax]

yep. Exactly how SF owned us twice.

I could call an offense that scores 30 if you give me 8 yards per carry.

[Radagast]

Many of you are forgetting an important factor for winning many games, Time of Possession. A running team burns more clock and runs more plays. This or any other advantage is always a good thing.

[pbmax]

Many of you are forgetting an important factor for winning many games, Time of Possession. A running team burns more clock and runs more plays. This or any other advantage is always a good thing.

One of the most overrated statistics in football.

If your point held, running teams would win more. But they don't. Passing is much more efficient.

Most of the argumentative noise about running the football is that teams with a lead in the second half want to burn clock to shorten the game. So they run more late in the game.

If you want to see a classic example of how coaches (and the press) mistake cause for effect, just rewatch the 2014 NFC Championship game. Then listen to McCarthy explain that he wanted to get to 20 runs in the second half.

[Radagast]

One of the most overrated statistics in football.

If your point held, running teams would win more. But they don't. Passing is much more efficient.

Most of the argumentative noise about running the football is that teams with a lead in the second half want to burn clock to shorten the game. So they run more late in the game.

If you want to see a classic example of how coaches (and the press) mistake cause for effect, just rewatch the 2014 NFC Championship game. Then listen to McCarthy explain that he wanted to get to 20 runs in the second half.

Naturally you want all to support your logic, NOT.

[RashanGary]

Naturally you want all to support your logic, NOT.

I'm with ya rada

[pbmax]

Naturally you want all to support your logic, NOT.

What I would like is a rebuttal; an argument backed up with some evidence, not a simple assertion that time of possession favors running and winning.

[RashanGary]

Advantages of running the ball well
(and I don't care to prove it or intellectualize a physical sport)

Offensive lineman like to run block (improved moral, empowerment and ownership)
Defenses can't t off on the QB opening up the pass game
Time off the clock takes away the other teams offensive opportunities
More 2nd and 5 or 2nd and 4 opportunities (better defenses to take shots against)
Defenders get tired trying to beat a lot of run blocks
QB sees more favorable pass looks


Anyone has every right to disagree. But I will gladly disagree right back. Wins are more important than efficiency in my mind. Period.