Official 2021 NFL Draft Thread

[Upnorth]

Finally found something I can contribute to the draft conversation

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Slightly dated but still enough information to throw a bucket of cold water on our up coming excitement

[RashanGary]

Finally found something I can contribute to the draft conversation

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Slightly dated but still enough information to throw a bucket of cold water on our up coming excitement

That should be an annual bump. That’s one of my favorite all time draft articles.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Finally found something I can contribute to the draft conversation

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Slightly dated but still enough information to throw a bucket of cold water on our up coming excitement

Interesting article. The crib notes:

1) QB - Draft in the 1st round. Anybody drafted after the 3rd round rarely becomes a starter.
2) RB - High bust rate
3) OL - High success rate in the first 2 rounds. Not bad in round 3 & 4.
4) TE - Draft in the 3rd or 4th round.
5) WR - Success rate in 2nd round is almost as high as 1st round.
6) DL - High bust rate in the 1st round. Success rate in 4th round is higher than 2nd and 3rd round.
7) LB - Low bust rate in the 1st round
8) DB - Solid success rate in the 1st two rounds, but after that there's little difference between the later rounds.
9) OL, LB, and TE have the lowest bust rates.
10) Never take a QB, RB, TE in the 7th round. There's almost no hope they will be a starter.

So, we should take OL/LB in round 1, WR/CB in round 2, whatever value fits a top need that we didn't draft in the first 2 rounds. DL and TE in round 4.

So, something like OT, CB, LB or WR, DL and TE

[RashanGary]

Interesting article. The crib notes:

1) QB - Draft in the 1st round. Anybody drafted after the 3rd round rarely becomes a starter.
2) RB - High bust rate
3) OL - High success rate in the first 2 rounds. Not bad in round 3 & 4.
4) TE - Draft in the 3rd or 4th round.
5) WR - Success rate in 2nd round is almost as high as 1st round.
6) DL - High bust rate in the 1st round. Success rate in 4th round is higher than 2nd and 3rd round.
7) LB - Low bust rate in the 1st round
8) DB - Solid success rate in the 1st two rounds, but after that there's little difference between the later rounds.
9) OL, LB, and TE have the lowest bust rates.
10) Never take a QB, RB, TE in the 7th round. There's almost no hope they will be a starter.

So, we should take OL/LB in round 1, WR/CB in round 2, whatever value fits a top need that we didn't draft in the first 2 rounds. DL and TE in round 4.

So, something like OT, CB, LB or WR, DL and TE

OT is probably more like 65% and interior guys close to 100% in the first.
DTs are hard to find in any round. I always say take DTs if you think they’re good cuz there are very few good ones. Low hit rate in any round but the rarest find in football.
WR and corner are round 2 all day

[run pMc]

This is kinda cool.

It's amazing how Bill O'Brien left the Texans without a R1 and R2. He should've been fired sooner -- for his GM moves if not his coaching.
Vikings without their R2 because of Ngakue.

Packers with a lot of late round picks, so not a lot of ammo to really move up in R1 but could move around in R3-7. I think Gute will keep a lot of the picks and use them for cheap roster building in a year where they are facing cap hell.

[run pMc]

Finally found something I can contribute to the draft conversation

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Slightly dated but still enough information to throw a bucket of cold water on our up coming excitement

This was an interesting read -- thanks for sharing.

Worth remembering this when looking back at previous drafts:

The reality is that if you can start in this league for at least half of your playing career, you are better than most.

[sharpe1027]

Interesting article. The crib notes:

1) QB - Draft in the 1st round. Anybody drafted after the 3rd round rarely becomes a starter.
2) RB - High bust rate
3) OL - High success rate in the first 2 rounds. Not bad in round 3 & 4.
4) TE - Draft in the 3rd or 4th round.
5) WR - Success rate in 2nd round is almost as high as 1st round.
6) DL - High bust rate in the 1st round. Success rate in 4th round is higher than 2nd and 3rd round.
7) LB - Low bust rate in the 1st round
8) DB - Solid success rate in the 1st two rounds, but after that there's little difference between the later rounds.
9) OL, LB, and TE have the lowest bust rates.
10) Never take a QB, RB, TE in the 7th round. There's almost no hope they will be a starter.

So, we should take OL/LB in round 1, WR/CB in round 2, whatever value fits a top need that we didn't draft in the first 2 rounds. DL and TE in round 4.

So, something like OT, CB, LB or WR, DL and TE

The high bust rates, if based in whether they become starters suggests that the NFL drafts too many players at that position.

[sharpe1027]

I think the numbers are suspect because they are based on a limited view of what is considered a bust.

A seventh round QB that plays 10 years in the league, fills in admirably during several times the starting QB is injured is not a bust, IMO. Neither is a player that plays for 10 years with lots of snaps and production but doesn't get the official start every game.

[RashanGary]

I think the numbers are suspect because they are based on a limited view of what is considered a bust.

A seventh round QB that plays 10 years in the league, fills in admirably during several times the starting QB is injured is not a bust, IMO. Neither is a player that plays for 10 years with lots of snaps and production but doesn't get the official start every game.

True... and some who start aren’t as good as others who don’t. See Kevin King vs Desmond King, who’s a career nickel. But it washes out. It’s a decent compilation.

[Upnorth]

His words on what constitutes success
"This post has a simple criteria: How many players were drafted by position and round over the last decade and how many went on to become a starter.

I did not distinguish superstars from regular starters. The determination of a starter comes from whether the player started at least half of their career. Obviously, this will run the gambit from below average to high performing starters. The reality is that if you can start in this league for at least half of your playing career, you are better than most"

While day 3 picks aren't expected to start day 1 and day 2 are (except in GB 2020 draft....) And so much focus is the first round so bust = not starting is a fair compromise. This is simple analysis for the average fan not high level analytics and I appreciate it.

[sharpe1027]

His words on what constitutes success
"This post has a simple criteria: How many players were drafted by position and round over the last decade and how many went on to become a starter.

I did not distinguish superstars from regular starters. The determination of a starter comes from whether the player started at least half of their career. Obviously, this will run the gambit from below average to high performing starters. The reality is that if you can start in this league for at least half of your playing career, you are better than most"

While day 3 picks aren't expected to start day 1 and day 2 are (except in GB 2020 draft....) And so much focus is the first round so bust = not starting is a fair compromise. This is simple analysis for the average fan not high level analytics and I appreciate it.

I did zero work, so this work is appreciated by comparison to my effort. I still think it is worth pointing out the issue I mentioned because it may skew a comparison by position quite a bit.

For example, DL tend to use heavy rotations, making the official starting lineups less relevant than OL or QB, which basically never rotate other than for injury or gadget plays.

[Upnorth]

So our dl is Clark (not bust) keel and lowery (not busts but some argue they basically suck). Then you ave I believe lancaster and no one (I think unless we resigned harrison and I missed it). I am comfortable saying Lancaster is a 'bust' at this level of analysis because he is a jag. As is Lowry at this point. Some teams are deep at dl so it balances out.
I see your point but feel like arguing it I guess.
My take away is our dl is depresding as f.

[bobblehead]

All of these guys aren't going to be gone when we pick. Toney is solid. I think he's projected right around where I have (late 1st). I like Marshall as much as Toney. Not sure if we would be looking more for a slot guy, but with most of our guys unsigned after this year we probably need to take a look at outside receivers too. One guy that doesn't generate a lot of buzz, but I think we would fit for us is Dyami Brown of North Carolina. He's a great deep ball guy and one of the better blockers in this draft class.

Dyami Brown Highlights

Marshall came in at 6'2" and played the slot most of his limited 2020 season.

I in no way want any part of Toney. I pray he is long gone when we pick.

[run pMc]

Good point on the DL vs QB. As a general measure this article's not bad.

Lancaster was a UDFA; I don't consider him a bust but I don't think you want him starting either.
Lowry and Keke are borderline starters at best. Clark needs a better running mate to help on the DL.

[run pMc]

Marshall came in at 6'2" and played the slot most of his limited 2020 season.

I in no way want any part of Toney. I pray he is long gone when we pick.

I don't want Toney at 29 either, which probably means they take him. I forget where, but some scout said he didn't run the routes from the playbook, or know how, which is worrisome. He's an unbelievable athlete with some of the best balance I've seen but he's a gadget guy. He's a bigger & slightly slower Rondale Moore. I could see MLF use him on jet sweeps, those stupid bubble screens, and out of the slot... but I wonder if Rodgers will trust him enough to throw him the ball. Also, given the depth of the WR class I think they can find someone who does 85% of that on Day 3.

I'm half expecting Gute to draft a pair of WRs Day 3 and park them on the PS for development. When the current crop hit FA at end of season they'll have a full year in the system to take over for MVS/Lazard/Funchess. Except for Adams... they need to keep him.

Gute has shown he drafts for the future (often) more than what they need now, so looking at what the roster holes will likely be this at time next year should provide some clues to what he'll do. Preston Smith and some of the WRs are likely gone. Billy Turner will have a year left. Two of Kevin King, Sullivan and Redmond will likely be gone. Burks, Josh Jackson. Lotta guys who haven't panned out, but a few who have they can't/won't keep... and either way, they are positions that need to be filled, and the draft is cheaper than FA.