Official Packers vs. Bucs NFC Title Game Discussion Thread

[Jaire]

According to PFF:

Who does Gary compare to?

He is like the Smith bros: not quick twitch, not much bend. But he's stronger, faster, and more agile. And starting to pass them by. I can't think of a good comp for Gary.

[George Cumby]

I think so too. Aaron just remarked that Tramon looked "amazing" in practice and could go 70 snaps (which might be smoke).

But there is this: last year the Packers were very good on D in the red zone and Tramon talked about it all year. This year they are better on D overall but much worse in the red zone -- opposite of bend but don't break. In fact they gave up 2 TDs and one FG on three drives to the Rams. On the Rams other 5 drives they only had twenty-eight yards total. Seems like that was the case in all the games down the stretch.

Hoping Tramon can at least be a huge help in the end zone. I don't know what else explains such a drop off.

good post

[Fritz]

Win it for Ted!

Also: that they signed Tramon would seem be quite an indictment of Josh Jackson and Kadar Hollman.

Good post on both counts. Holloman, okay, he was a sixth-rounder, and the expectations are much lower - maybe a good special teamer who can fill in for short bursts. But likely not an ascending player.

Jackson's just been a bad second round pick. Like Ted's third round picks. He was snake bit in that round.

Ky's post also hit the nail on the head for that TB defense - it's the quickness of those two inside linebackers that poses the biggest problem for that Pakcker O line. If the linemen can't get out there and cut them off, it's going to be a long day. Reminds me of the 2016 NFC Championship game - it was clear that the Packers just were not quick enough to match Atlanta.

So I would imagine that The Flower is working overtime trying to figure out how to neutralize that speed/quickness at ILB. I don't know enough about football to know what that would look like, but that's the challenge.

[Jaire]

You neutralize them by running right at them. It's why they are trying to bring back Vita. And we had some success with this the first go. Start Williams and Dillon, down their throat. That will open it all up.

This game (as most championship games) is all about winning the trenches. Packers have the edge here. Best O line in football and on D an ascending pass rush that can stop the run when they choose to. Just gotta play the game.

[bobblehead]

Antonio Brown is out for Sunday. Not a huge loss, but Brady spent some juice trying to put him in the mix. Vita Vea, the big NT is active for the game. This is mainly smoke, he won't be that effective coming off a broken ankle. The big worry attacking this D is their ILB's David and White are like that pair SF had a few years ago. They are first rate. I know 12 would love to put in these two young backers in a trick bag. Especially after White shot his mouth off after the debacle in Tampa in October. A problem is, the kid is so good, he can spout off. TB has some really active DB's. But they are young ones. I know 12 and Devonte have some nice shake and go's and other tricks up their sleeves to reward them for their aggressive play in Fla.

Defensively, the game plan is stop Jones and knock Brady off his spot. That is hardly news, but it is true. Old Tom is great, but we may just have the GOAT in green and gold.

As far as the game, I don't want to talk about whether we should have drafted Joe Blow 3 years ago. Let's fold back ears and knock the shit out of these guys. Their mouths were flapping pretty hard in October, let's clock them in the mouth and shut 'em up in January.

I got a feeling, Packers going to the Super Bowl.

Last year when we faced Dallas they had a similar D with similar ILB talent. We ran it right up the gut and did it well. I said it then. When a team uses speed ILB who are slightly undersized you can run between the tackles and negate their strength. Jones happens to be best between the tackles. This game is where losing Bak hurts because Turner as a guard is really good at latching onto guys like this at the second level. You are going to see Jones up the gut about 18-20 times in this game. And if we do it right the play action off that is going to be Tonyan up the seam for 25 yard gains.

[bobblehead]

Since week 10, Gary has the leagues highest pressure percentage in the league. Second is Aaron Donald

Considering he has been setting a mean edge the entire time this is incredible. I don't think anyone but the most optimistic of us saw this coming, but Gary is becoming a pro bowl talent right before our eyes. I'll be honest, I didn't think he had the instincts to honor the run and be able to shift into rush mode. He is proving a lot of us wrong and I think us doubters are loving the taste of crow.

[bobblehead]

RE: Bend but don't break

Is it even a smart defensive strategy? I guess it works against worse offenses, where they might make a mistake somewhere within a long drive.

But you're tiring your defense out (so they'll become increasingly less effective), keeping your offense off the field (messing up their rhythm), and allowing the opposition to rest their defense. If we then allow a TD, it is catastrophic; the worst possible outcome.

Against good offenses, I'd probably rather be aggressive and take more risks, especially early. If you blow it, maybe you give up a quick TD, but at least you didn't wear down your defense doing so (which should keep them fresher later). And you allow your offense to wear down their defense, which will pay off later.

I think the MM days were the worst of both worlds. Quick strike offense, allowing opposing defenses to stay fresh; BBDB defense - tired and useless at the end of games, which likely led to their terrible metrics.

This is likely why the Patriots were so good in the clutch; they were facing an exhausted defense down the stretch. This is also a part of why the Packers are better under Lafleur. They'll likely be even better when they rid themselves of Pettine's philosophy.

I have never agreed with a single post you have made in FYI. This however I am 100% on board with. Its similar to what I have said for the last decade here. I could have written it myself. Well done.

[bobblehead]

Who does Gary compare to?

He is like the Smith bros: not quick twitch, not much bend. But he's stronger, faster, and more agile. And starting to pass them by. I can't think of a good comp for Gary.

There is no real comp. He is elite size/strength/speed combination. Everyone I try to compare his style to is smaller than him, everyone I try to compare his size to plays undersized DE and isn't as athletic. Clowney is probably the closest thing we got. Clowney has never reached his potential, but has been a solid to very good pro. I would say Gary comps pretty close to him right now. If he takes another step forward look out.

Z has one and only one edge on him. Z has ridiculous twitch. His inside rush moves are insane. Gary is already near his equal on edge rushing and better vs. the run. If Gary can get even close to Z as an inside rusher we have a matchup nightmare on our hands.

[bobblehead]

You neutralize them by running right at them. It's why they are trying to bring back Vita. And we had some success with this the first go. Start Williams and Dillon, down their throat. That will open it all up.

This game (as most championship games) is all about winning the trenches. Packers have the edge here. Best O line in football and on D an ascending pass rush that can stop the run when they choose to. Just gotta play the game.

You're close. Williams actually is a better outside zbs runner than Jones though and Jones is better inside zbs. Its counter intuitive, but its the way it is. Jones has that Peterson vision to weave through traffic, but he doesn't seem to see the opening to cut back into on outside runs. This is actually not as bad a matchup for our run game as we might think, but honestly if Jones ever is going to get 25 carries, this is the game.

[Fritz]

You're close. Williams actually is a better outside zbs runner than Jones though and Jones is better inside zbs. Its counter intuitive, but its the way it is. Jones has that Peterson vision to weave through traffic, but he doesn't seem to see the opening to cut back into on outside runs. This is actually not as bad a matchup for our run game as we might think, but honestly if Jones ever is going to get 25 carries, this is the game.

Back in the 90's when Holmgren used the run as a change of pace, I would get furious as I watched. I grew up in the late 60's and the 70's, so it was ingrained in me that you HAD to run the ball to be successful. I'd channel my inner Bo Schembecler and scream at the television, "run the ball, goddammit!" Spittle flying out of my mouth and everything.

Then PB and others taught me that the game had changed, the rules had changed, and running the ball was archaic. I was trying for years to get on board, though MM's penchant for ignoring the run for long stretches drove me nuts. But I tried.

But the game seems to have evolved again. So I am fully on board with running the ball down their damn throats. And there's no need to "save" Jones at this point, so feed him the ball. Feed them all the ball. Use Dillon and Jones like they did in the last game, and after giving Dillon the ball a few times, throw it to Jones after he motions outside.

Tex, I know you don't agree, but I think you put Rodgers in a position to play his best football if he doesn't feel it's all on him. And if the defense has to key on the run, you give Rodgers more time to do his thing without having to scramble around like a chicken with its head cut off.

[bobblehead]

Back in the 90's when Holmgren used the run as a change of pace, I would get furious as I watched. I grew up in the late 60's and the 70's, so it was ingrained in me that you HAD to run the ball to be successful. I'd channel my inner Bo Schembecler and scream at the television, "run the ball, goddammit!" Spittle flying out of my mouth and everything.

Then PB and others taught me that the game had changed, the rules had changed, and running the ball was archaic. I was trying for years to get on board, though MM's penchant for ignoring the run for long stretches drove me nuts. But I tried.

But the game seems to have evolved again. So I am fully on board with running the ball down their damn throats. And there's no need to "save" Jones at this point, so feed him the ball. Feed them all the ball. Use Dillon and Jones like they did in the last game, and after giving Dillon the ball a few times, throw it to Jones after he motions outside.

Tex, I know you don't agree, but I think you put Rodgers in a position to play his best football if he doesn't feel it's all on him. And if the defense has to key on the run, you give Rodgers more time to do his thing without having to scramble around like a chicken with its head cut off.

But the game never truly changed. People thought it did. Look at your Owl winners. Brady audibles into run plays more than anyone I have ever seen. You have always needed to run effectively to win. Peyton Manning proved that. Fat mike as well. Regular season all world offenses built running the ball 20% of the time fail epically in the post season all the time.

Its is now, and has been for a long time about balance. No one wins the owl without both running and passing the ball well...with very few exceptions.

[Jaire]

.....

Tex, I know you don't agree, but I think you put Rodgers in a position to play his best football if he doesn't feel it's all on him. And if the defense has to key on the run, you give Rodgers more time to do his thing without having to scramble around like a chicken with its head cut off.

Plus

Play Action

It slows the blitz pressure AND opens up play action (as well as RPO) which has been deadly this year.

[Cheesehead Craig]

St. Brown was a limited participant but it had nothing to do with injury.

[sharpe1027]

Run the ball and keep doing it while it's working. But if they are keying on stopping the run, you put it in Rodger's hands early and often.

[Fosco33]

Feels like the Packers have started fast in nearly every game and most opening possessions.

In this type of game - you want to set the tone early.

Offensive keys seem pretty basic: protect Arodg, play a clean game and win ToP. Be prepared for heavy zone and have a quick insert adjustment if they play contrarian.

Defensively: TB’s red zone has dried up in last 3 weeks (38%) - so we’ll see if Packers can keep that going, pressure Brady (he was only sacked once vs the Saints and Zero times in our first matchup).

Championship games also have that weird X factor play. Stuff happens you just don’t see in other playoff or reg season games. Coaches need to have the team ready to get over weird plays, weird calls and just focus the Offense on hanging 30+. If our Defense can’t keep Brady/Jones and co to under 30, they don’t deserve the chance for the trophy anyway.

I think GB will lead by 3 at the half and enter the 4th Q behind but will pull ahead mid 4th Q and lean on Jones/Dillon to take it home.

Let’s fucking go!

Pack 30
Bucs 24