Receiving corps(e)

[bobblehead]

Don't hold your breath.

They absolutely have to lean on motion and scheming receivers open. Watson is the only one with the tools to beat single coverage, but he's raw. The only way he gets those numbers is for the Packers to reduce his playbook to a few deep routes that he really does well, and scheme him to isolate him 1 on 1 with a slower our shorter back.

WR routes are similar to pitchers arm slots. If Watson can run a go, a comeback and a backshoulder without tipping them off he can be very effective. He has shown the ability to do all 3 in college. There is no reason he can't have a 1k season with Rodgers throwing him the ball. That doesn't mean he will, it just means that its not far fetched. Don't expect elaborate crossing routes, or subtle sit downs in the soft part of the zone. Those will take time.

[bobblehead]

It

Upvoted. I couldn't find anything to disagree with.

[bobblehead]

Derek Carr threw for 4800 yards last year, and has been over 4000 yards for 4 years straight with a QB rating averaging in the high 90's during that time. I think this year's version LVR's receivers are better than this year's version of GB's if you include the TEs, and it's not that close.
I also think if you are counting on a rookie WR to get more than 600 yards -- even across 17 games -- you are being very very optimistic, and APRH if you think any will outplay Davante Adams this year you are delusional. There is a modest dropoff from Rodgers to Carr, and Adams will compete with Waller, Renfrow, etc. for targets but he's the clear #1 and will get plenty of throws his way... certainly more than a rookie WR. Also consider the AFCW is going to have a lot of shootouts with the QBs in that division, whereas GB will probably run the ball a lot more since RB is more of a known strength for them with Jones/Dillon.

I think statistically we'll see Rodgers will be fine but won't be as gaudy as the last two years -- his overall yards and completion rate will likely drop and the TDs slightly. I think we'll see more close games like in MLF's first year (2019), less blowouts. I don't think the OP's 3900 yard number is that far off - Rodgers threw for 4002 in 2019.

Rookie WRs come into the league better prepared than before, but Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase are the exception and not the rule. They were very polished coming out and were part of a historic CFB offense. Watson and Doubs are nowhere close to that. MVS topped 60 yards four times in his rookie season and had 2 TDs, maybe Watson beats that but he also has to beat Lazard, Watkins, Cobb for snaps and targets. Not saying Watson won't be good, I just think a sanity check and realistic expectations are in order.

Mostly a very good breakdown. I do think you are under estimating Watson just a tad based on the simple fact that someone has to step up and he has the most talent. I also think the gap between Rodgers and Carr is significant not "modest"

That being said, the goal is to win games, not pass for the most yards. The offense will be different. There was almost nowhere to go but down after some record breaking efficiency years. The defense will be pretty damn good. Can they get the ball back in Rodgers hands fast/often enough that he doesn't feel the need to press things. If so, he will work 7 catchers a game with a solid running attack and we will be right in the thick of it at the end of the season.

[texaspackerbacker]

Derek Carr threw for 4800 yards last year, and has been over 4000 yards for 4 years straight with a QB rating averaging in the high 90's during that time. I think this year's version LVR's receivers are better than this year's version of GB's if you include the TEs, and it's not that close.
I also think if you are counting on a rookie WR to get more than 600 yards -- even across 17 games -- you are being very very optimistic, and APRH if you think any will outplay Davante Adams this year you are delusional. There is a modest dropoff from Rodgers to Carr, and Adams will compete with Waller, Renfrow, etc. for targets but he's the clear #1 and will get plenty of throws his way... certainly more than a rookie WR. Also consider the AFCW is going to have a lot of shootouts with the QBs in that division, whereas GB will probably run the ball a lot more since RB is more of a known strength for them with Jones/Dillon.

I think statistically we'll see Rodgers will be fine but won't be as gaudy as the last two years -- his overall yards and completion rate will likely drop and the TDs slightly. I think we'll see more close games like in MLF's first year (2019), less blowouts. I don't think the OP's 3900 yard number is that far off - Rodgers threw for 4002 in 2019.

Rookie WRs come into the league better prepared than before, but Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase are the exception and not the rule. They were very polished coming out and were part of a historic CFB offense. Watson and Doubs are nowhere close to that. MVS topped 60 yards four times in his rookie season and had 2 TDs, maybe Watson beats that but he also has to beat Lazard, Watkins, Cobb for snaps and targets. Not saying Watson won't be good, I just think a sanity check and realistic expectations are in order.

I said what I said, and I stand by it. Watson over a thousand yards, Adams up there too, but very possibly less than Watson.

[run pMc]

Mostly a very good breakdown. I do think you are under estimating Watson just a tad based on the simple fact that someone has to step up and he has the most talent. I also think the gap between Rodgers and Carr is significant not "modest"

That being said, the goal is to win games, not pass for the most yards. The offense will be different. There was almost nowhere to go but down after some record breaking efficiency years. The defense will be pretty damn good. Can they get the ball back in Rodgers hands fast/often enough that he doesn't feel the need to press things. If so, he will work 7 catchers a game with a solid running attack and we will be right in the thick of it at the end of the season.

Statistically, the dropoff is modest. Rodgers is a more talented and efficient QB -- he's definitely a better QB, perhaps "significant" is a better term performance-wise. Agree it will be tough for the offense to be better; also agree Rodgers should be inclined to ad-lib less and stick to MLF's scheme while spreading the ball around more. Maybe Watson lights it on fire, but I have a hard time seeing him cracking 1000 yards. We'll know more once we see him in games. I do think he can match MVS' production -- at a minimum, he should be able to fit into the same deep threat role.

Tex: I respect you stating your opinion and standing by it. I disagree and that's ok.

[Upnorth]

7 of the last 10 super bowl winners have had average wr at best.
6 of the last 10 super bowl losers have had average wr at best.

Last couple of years have made the whole we equation go stupid....

I bet the correlation between wr quality and wins is lower than almost every other posotion group, including sexual teams.

[Joemailman]

Packers are elite at QB and RB. If OL approaches 2020 levels (Pre-Bakh injury) offense will be hard to stop.

[RashanGary]

Packers are elite at QB and RB. If OL approaches 2020 levels (Pre-Bakh injury) offense will be hard to stop.

I agree with this. 2015 we had a hobbled Adams, Randall Cobb and a 31 year old James Jones. Jordy missed the year with injury.

But the OL was Bakh, Sitton, Lindsley, Lang and Bulaga. We made the playoffs with a crappy defense and crappy special teams on the strength of QB and Fat Eddie.

[RashanGary]

Ive been down on Lazard having a big year because I just dont think hes talented enough. But if 31 year old James Jones can get 890 yards as the only outside receiver, Lazard could get 900 too.

If the OL holds up, Rodgers will be able to put it right on the spot and our guys will produce. If Rodgers is harassed early, he wont be able to throw perfect balls, and the offense will struggle.

Im with Joe on the OL being the difference.

[texaspackerbacker]

https://www.tmz.com/2022/07/02/brett-favre-expecting-drop-off-for-davante-adams-after-leaving-aaron-rodgers/?adid=social-fb&fbclid=IwAR2fPO0U7szqwQ9W09u-bZ2G-xhB2d53SCueAtTf6zg39dxJz3Y9AgdrL

Nice to see Brett Favre agrees with what I've been saying.

[bobblehead]

https://www.tmz.com/2022/07/02/brett...39dxJz3Y9AgdrL

Nice to see Brett Favre agrees with what I've been saying.

We all expect a drop off. I'm even on record saying it'll be sizeable. But we don't go so far as saying a rookie 2nd rounder will outproduce him....and neither did Brent. And saying a hill billy agrees with you as some sort of salvo to your intellect...well....

[MadScientist]

https://www.tmz.com/2022/07/02/brett...39dxJz3Y9AgdrL

Nice to see Brett Favre agrees with what I've been saying.

Favre must have blocked out his performance in 2005 when he had no receiving talent around him.

[wthigoot]

I am thinking JAGuara (Deguara) could break out and have a pretty good year. If he can get lost in coverage and catch passes in the mid-range, he can be effective.

Doesn't have to be Gronk, just move the chains.

[RashanGary]

There are very few TEs who make it at 6-2. Deguara probably isnt gonna be much.

[bobblehead]

There are very few TEs who make it at 6-2. Deguara probably isnt gonna be much.

He is more of an H back and there are many fullback types who have been effective in that role over the years. They don't put up gaudy stats, just move the chains and make an offense better. Keith Jackson was 6'2" but he also ran a high 4.4