Off-season 2023 Banjo

[run pMc]

Rodgers was 11th in the league in passing yards, 7th in TDs, 7th in INTs, and 17th passer rating for QBs with at least 100 attempts.

20th in completion percentage, 20th in ANY/A, and 24th in Y/A, 27th in ESPN's stupid QBR.
Jared Goff had a better year than Rodgers, and not by some small margin.

He's still got talent and can make throws, but he can't make them as often (or consistently) as he used to. He's got to change his play style from the gunslinger to the facilitator (not a game manager). Gute has to give him some weapons and just let them do the work. Rodgers' best game this year was vs. Dallas, he only needed to throw 20 passes. I don't believe that was a coincidence.

[sharpe1027]

Giving Rodgers more weapons is made harder by his salary.

[Joemailman]

20th in completion percentage, 20th in ANY/A, and 24th in Y/A, 27th in ESPN's stupid QBR.
Jared Goff had a better year than Rodgers, and not by some small margin.

He's still got talent and can make throws, but he can't make them as often (or consistently) as he used to. He's got to change his play style from the gunslinger to the facilitator (not a game manager). Gute has to give him some weapons and just let them do the work. Rodgers' best game this year was vs. Dallas, he only needed to throw 20 passes. I don't believe that was a coincidence.

So Packers are paying 50 million a year to a game manager. That's the problem. A great quarterback will elevate the performance of his receivers. The Packers need receivers to elevate the quarterback.

[texaspackerbacker]

He might improve some, but I believe he's lost the chip on his shoulder that really made him great. No matter how poorly he plays, I suspect you'll say it's not that bad, not his fault, or both.

Let me put it this way so it's more objective. I don't think he'll be top ten in passer rating or similar metrics. I think top ten is his realistic ceiling and the floor is much lower.

I hope I'm wrong. I am not against Rodgers doing well, I just call it like I see it.

hahahahahaha If he ever read the shit in here, that chip would come back in a hurry.

A generally good post, runpMc - at least in comparison to most of the hater crap from some in here.

I guess it doesn't occur to any of those dumbasses that a large part of the reason for Rodgers' worse stats was a better run game? or lower quality and/or less experienced receivers? I bet some of ya'all haters were the same shitheads who used to whine that Rodgers was a "stat whore" when he was consistently throwing for 300 yards a game and 40+ TDs a season.

[run pMc]

I guess it doesn't occur to you that Rodgers is clearly showing signs of decline. It happens to everyone: Manning, Brady, Favre, Marino, and yes even Aaron Rodgers.
You can point to receivers, line, etc., but he's transcended that in the past; why can't he now?

****
3rd and goal at the 3.5 yard line against the Lions. Rodgers runs out of the pocket to his right and towards the line of scrimmage. In past years he'd have run for it or given a pump fake and tried to run it in. If he'd done that he'd have gotten it close the goal line and made it an easier 4th and goal. Instead he throws an off target pass in Dillon's direction.

There are tons of examples like this. His skills have diminished.

Lower quality receivers? You called Watson & Doubs a

net positive in the short term

and

Watson should end up with at least as good a year as Adams had last year and much better than Adams will have this year with the Raiders.

OL was a little shaky, but his pressured rate was actually lower this year than last by quite a bit (and below league average).
Having Bahk & Jenkins hit their groove in the second half of the season helped that.

I would love to see Rodgers throw 24-28 times a game for 280-320 yards and 2-3TDs. I just don't know that he can anymore. Blaming the stats on the run game is a little questionable; there were games where MLF seemed to ignore Aaron Jones and give him 8 carries. Rodgers had 542 attempts this year, or ~31.9 per game compared to 33.2 and 32.9 in 2022 and 2021 respectively, so he's not throwing much less on average. And yet his yards/game is way down. So you have a QB who is throwing for less yardage on almost the same # of attempts despite getting less pressure.

[MadScientist]

hahahahahaha If he ever read the shit in here, that chip would come back in a hurry.

A generally good post, runpMc - at least in comparison to most of the hater crap from some in here.

I guess it doesn't occur to any of those dumbasses that a large part of the reason for Rodgers' worse stats was a better run game? or lower quality and/or less experienced receivers? I bet some of ya'all haters were the same shitheads who used to whine that Rodgers was a "stat whore" when he was consistently throwing for 300 yards a game and 40+ TDs a season.

Rodgers' stats were down because he wasn't good this season. His rating was the worst of his career, and his QBR was an anemic 39.4. Having a good running game should have helped those numbers. The lack of sustained drives and poor red-zone performance doomed this season and Rodgers was a big part of those failings. Can he bounce back? Maybe. He's had seasons bad enough for me to start the "Is Arron Rodgers good anymore" thread, and bounced back to playing great.

Why Rodgers will rebound:
1) Injuries - The broken thumb was causing him problems for a large part of the season. Not just in bad passes, but in lack of practice time.
2) Receivers - Doubs and Watson are clearly talented and another year should get them on the same page with Rodgers and just better prepared to play a full NFL season
3) OLine - Jenkins will be healthy and in his more natural position. Bach might finally be healthy for the start of the season, and Tom will have a year under his belt.

Why Rodgers won't rebound:
1) Age - Rodgers turns 40 this year. Age is not going to help his mobility or ability to heal.
2) No chip on his shoulder - His contract makes Love no threat to him, and he plays better when he has something to prove.
3) Cold - Even if the Packers are better next year, Rodgers has looked bad in the cold for several years.

Best guess - He'll rebound enough to be good, but not great. They'll make the playoffs and be bounced in the first round.

[Deputy Nutz]

I just saw a tweet that said the Packers could trade Rodgers this off-season and take a 40 million dollar hit, or they can keep him on the roster and take a 65 million hit in 2024. I think if you wait till 2024 to move on from Rodgers you are going to lose Love. Maybe you can trade Love and start over on the QB of the future.

[RashanGary]

I just saw a tweet that said the Packers could trade Rodgers this off-season and take a 40 million dollar hit, or they can keep him on the roster and take a 65 million hit in 2024. I think if you wait till 2024 to move on from Rodgers you are going to lose Love. Maybe you can trade Love and start over on the QB of the future.

This year is a really good time for a trade. It gets stickier every year of the contract. But I don’t think they like Love. The Rodgers contract shows they don’t have much confidence in the young guy.

[Joemailman]

They clearly didn't feel Love was ready last March or they wouldn't have given Rodgers the contract they did. The question is whether that's changed with Love's improved play this past year. If so, it's hard to see them wanting to trade Love after developing him for 3 years. The problem is Rodgers doesn't really want to be traded. He wants to finish his career with Green Bay. The Packers may either have to play Rodgers or convince him to retire.

[Fritz]

Woody Johnson, the Jets owner reportedly willing to pay for a veteran QB. https://twitter.com/i/status/1613617243396444160

I'm not sayin'. I'm just sayin'.

Woody gave me a woody.

A first rounder for Rodgers.

But would he?

And Rodgers - playing in New York following the same sorry career path of his predecessor?

Would he?

[call_me_ishmael]

The question ultimately boils down to this I guess:

Do you think Love is good enough over the next 5 years to risk burning a bridge and moving on from Rodgers?

If he's going to be middle of the road, it honestly probably isn't worth it.
If he's going to be top 5-10, then yeah it probably is.

I believe the Packers think they know the answer to this.

[Joemailman]

The question ultimately boils down to this I guess:

Do you think Love is good enough over the next 5 years to risk burning a bridge and moving on from Rodgers?

If he's going to be middle of the road, it honestly probably isn't worth it.
If he's going to be top 5-10, then yeah it probably is.

I believe the Packers think they know the answer to this.

Gute said as much last month when asked if they need to see Jordan Love in the late season games.

“No,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said on Monday. “We’re really pleased with his progression and what he’s been able to do. I think that it would be really good for him, the growth that you need to go through, seeing things for the first time, making those mistakes that you need to make. But I think from our end of it, we’ve seen what we need to see.”

[Teamcheez1]

So we have a middle of the road old QB and a middle of the road young QB.

[Joemailman]

Gute just said in his PC he can envision both Love and Rodgers on the Packers in 2023. Acknowledged that Love is ready to play and chomping at the bit (his words). Also said he'd like to see all players here in the offseason while acknowledging much of it is voluntary. Acknowledged that older players need workouts less, but said it's good for younger players for everyone to be here.

[texaspackerbacker]

I guess it doesn't occur to you that Rodgers is clearly showing signs of decline. It happens to everyone: Manning, Brady, Favre, Marino, and yes even Aaron Rodgers.
You can point to receivers, line, etc., but he's transcended that in the past; why can't he now?

****
3rd and goal at the 3.5 yard line against the Lions. Rodgers runs out of the pocket to his right and towards the line of scrimmage. In past years he'd have run for it or given a pump fake and tried to run it in. If he'd done that he'd have gotten it close the goal line and made it an easier 4th and goal. Instead he throws an off target pass in Dillon's direction.

There are tons of examples like this. His skills have diminished.

Lower quality receivers? You called Watson & Doubs a and

OL was a little shaky, but his pressured rate was actually lower this year than last by quite a bit (and below league average).
Having Bahk & Jenkins hit their groove in the second half of the season helped that.

I would love to see Rodgers throw 24-28 times a game for 280-320 yards and 2-3TDs. I just don't know that he can anymore. Blaming the stats on the run game is a little questionable; there were games where MLF seemed to ignore Aaron Jones and give him 8 carries. Rodgers had 542 attempts this year, or ~31.9 per game compared to 33.2 and 32.9 in 2022 and 2021 respectively, so he's not throwing much less on average. And yet his yards/game is way down. So you have a QB who is throwing for less yardage on almost the same # of attempts despite getting less pressure.

There of course were signs of decline last year. What did you see, though, that wasn't directly attributable to the thumb injury? Did his mobility decline? No, not much. His stats declined, as I said, and as would be expected with the team running more. Comparison to others? Manning played until 40. He had a clearly debilitating injury - which Rodgers does not. Favre played well into his 40s with some decline toward the end - all I can say there is he may not have taken as good care of his body as Rodgers. Marino I don't really remember, but I think there was some kind of injury factor there too. Brees, who you didn't mention, declined some, but he was at least serviceable until 42 or so. Brady may have declined some this season, but he's 45 or so, and prior to this year, he was damn near as good as ever.

Regarding receivers, I did say "lower quality and/or less experienced" - you know I have as high an opinion of Watson and Doubs as anybody, but they did lack experience, not to mention each missing major chunks of the season with injury.

Screwed up plays: there have always been those, and it's hard to tell whose fault they are - Rodgers, LaFleur, other players not executing, etc. In an overall bad season, those things stand out more long term, but they're hardly a sign of decline.

I've said, the O Line actually seemed better this year (better without the sacred cow than with him hahahaha). Part of the reason for less pressures, total numbers as well as the rate, was more use of the running game.

"I would love to see Rodgers throw 24-28 times a game for 280-320 yards and 2-3TDs" - what you'd love to see: That IMO is extremely doable going forward with a healthy Rodgers, even with the team relying as umch on the running game. I also thoroughly expect his interception rate - which rose all the way to almost as bad as most QBs - to drop back down to Rodgers-normal, which means practically zero.

CMI brought up QBs playing into their 40s, other than Brady: Obviously Favre and Brees just in recent years, and you could go back to Blanda, admittedly a bad example because he was primarily a kicker. It's a different NFL now with rule changes, better conditioning, etc. Most of the QBs who quit younger in recent times were never close to Rodgers or Brady level to begin with - literally nobody has been other than P. Manning.