Packers Offseason/Free Agency Thread

[RashanGary]

This guy's impressive on paper, and in the SEC, same as Carlson - not like he's doing it against crap opponents

Does the opponent matter when you’re kicking field goals? I would think your snapper and holder are more impactful than whoever is lined up on the other side. I suppose the one block a year could factor in, but barely.

[Joemailman]

There's just so much more pressure on a kicker in the NFL than there is on kickers in college. Every kick is magnified because the games are closer. Packers had 8 games this year decided by 4 points or less. You don't really know what you have in a kicker going from college to the NFL until the pressure is on.

[run pMc]

There's just so much more pressure on a kicker in the NFL than there is on kickers in college. Every kick is magnified because the games are closer. Packers had 8 games this year decided by 4 points or less. You don't really know what you have in a kicker going from college to the NFL until the pressure is on.

Agree. there's a lot of scrutiny and pressure.
Also the hashes are different in pros, the size and speed of the players too (obvs).

Does the opponent matter when you’re kicking field goals? I would think your snapper and holder are more impactful than whoever is lined up on the other side. I suppose the one block a year could factor in, but barely.

I don't think so, unless you are facing a really clever ST coach who schemes up wacky block or return calls.
I would think things like weather conditions, field conditions, and even altitude would be more important.
The kicking "operation" - snapper & holder - are most important. We learned that from Bojorquez and Hunter Bradley.

[texaspackerbacker]

Yeah, that pressure was what I was talking about. Georgia against some other high level SEC team is about the nearest you can get to the way it is in the NFL.

Bringing in this guy is a start, but I hope they bring in several more and start the competition out even, no advantage for Carlson.

[bobblehead]

https://overthecap.com/player/kenny-clark/4739
They pushed a big chunk of it into a void year, so some of that money won't hit until the year after his contract expires.
He does have a big cap hit, but not 40M. It's what happens when you play well enough to make it to your last year of your contract. Ask Aaron Jones about that.

I could see them doing an extension and play some games with the money, but I'd be leery of it. We've seen 3rd contracts not work out so well in the past (see: Bakhtiari, David). Outside of QB, I'm not sure a 3rd contract is a good idea (unless it's a series of 1 year deals), usually the player is too expensive and too old to make it worthwhile.

Outside of QB the only guys who generally play well into their 30s are the big men. I think Clark has another contract in him to be honest. Not a "top dollar" deal, but a pretty good one regardless. Plus I think he was drafted about as young as you can be. Don't feel like googling his age. Big talented DL and OL who take care of themselves often play to 33/34.

[ThunderDan]

Yeah, that pressure was what I was talking about. Georgia against some other high level SEC team is about the nearest you can get to the way it is in the NFL.

Bringing in this guy is a start, but I hope they bring in several more and start the competition out even, no advantage for Carlson.

The NFL is a completely results driven institution. Whomever can kick the best will get the job.

High drafted players may get preferential treatment the first year and a half but after that if he can't get it done, the coach isn't going to put someone out there who is going to lose games and possible cost the coach his career.

[Joemailman]

Outside of QB the only guys who generally play well into their 30s are the big men. I think Clark has another contract in him to be honest. Not a "top dollar" deal, but a pretty good one regardless. Plus I think he was drafted about as young as you can be. Don't feel like googling his age. Big talented DL and OL who take care of themselves often play to 33/34.

Clark is only 28. He was something like 20 years, 6 months when drafted. Had his career high in sacks, TFL and QB hits this year. He definitely has another contract in him. They'll probably get his 15.5M 2024 base salary down and add 3 years.

[RashanGary]

Clark is signed through next year. He’ll be 29 during his last season. There are still 40M dollars left to absorb in cap hit.

I’m with Joe that he’s probably due for a 3 year extension. Which is a 4 year deal including the last year of his current deal.

22M is the going rate for a top tier DL not named Aaron Donald.

He’s due 15M in base this year, so the up-front money will have to be a good chunk more for his agent to want to sign. We’ll say 40 of the 60 new is guaranteed and/or up front.

3 years, 60M in new money
1 year, 40M existing
4 year, 100M total cap hit

His current cap hit is 27M with dead cap next year of 13M


Cap hits on the new deal would look like this
Age 29 17.5M
Age 30 22.5M
Age 31 27.5M
Age 32 32.5M

At his age it’s a risk. Similar to the way Bakh was. It’s always risky to sign non QBs over the age of 30. But like bobble said, really good big guy DL play well into their early 30s.

[texaspackerbacker]

The NFL is a completely results driven institution. Whomever can kick the best will get the job.

High drafted players may get preferential treatment the first year and a half but after that if he can't get it done, the coach isn't going to put someone out there who is going to lose games and possible cost the coach his career.

For once, I agree with you. Also, I agree with RG who agreed with bobblehead about Kenny Clark. It must be my day to be agreeable hahahaha.

[Patler]

There's just so much more pressure on a kicker in the NFL than there is on kickers in college. Every kick is magnified because the games are closer. Packers had 8 games this year decided by 4 points or less. You don't really know what you have in a kicker going from college to the NFL until the pressure is on.

That, and the NFL use of the k-ball for kicking plays. Some college kickers have difficulty adapting to it mentally and/or physically.

[QBME]

Packers Strength and conditioning coordinator Chris Gizzi has been fired.

Hopefully they will get someone who knows about preventative hamstring injuries.

[run pMc]

MLF firing two of his four coordinators (DC, S&CC) is certainly putting a thumbprint on your operation. Here's hoping he makes the right hires.

[Joemailman]

Gino BetOpenly.com
@Gino_BetOpenly

Gotta love seeing this as a #Packers fan[/B]

[Fosco33]

Good article

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lists/evaluating-packers-roster-entering-2024-offseason/

[Bretsky]

GREAT ARTICLE; DIDN"T KNOW ABOUT ALL OF THIS

That leaves the ugly David Bakhtiari contract situation. He is set to earn $21.5 million cash in the final year of his contract, but his initial signing bonus and three straight years of cap restructuring have now piled up into 2024 creating a whopping $40 million cap hit -- by far the largest on the roster, $12.5 million ahead of second place.

Important to note: Bakhtiari has intentionally not allowed the Packers to use void years in his restructures the past three seasons in to have full leverage of his future in the final year of his deal as the Packers now cannot lower his 2024 cap hit (outside of cutting, trading, or retirement) without David's cooperation. There is zero chance Bakhtiari will play in Green Bay on his current contract as written and the Packers have a big decision to make with their former All-Pro left tackle. No doubt, when healthy and available, Bakhtiari is still one of the best in the business, but of course his health and availability have been wildly unpredictable the past three years. If Bakhtiari himself doesn't want to stay in Green Bay or doesn't like the Packers' offer he can just refuse a restructure and force the Packers to either risk paying him $21.5 million to play and stay healthy at a $40 million cap hit, be outright released for no compensation, or risk carrying his contract into 2024 in a complex trade landscape -- none of these are great options.


Let's start with what cannot change -- there is $19.1 million of dead cap which 100% will count on the 2024 Green Bay salary cap before Bakhtiari gets a penny of contract cash in 2024. This hit cannot move out of 2024 for any reason and is comprised of past seasons' cap-kicking now coming due. It's safe to predict that once all the team's offseason moves are complete David Bakhtiari will still own the highest 2024 cap hit for the Packers -- even if he is no longer on the roster. If the Packers want to keep Bakhtiari it would have to be at a significant pay cut and restructure from his current $21.5 million cash due, but how much is Bakhtiari willing to agree to play for, in Green Bay? If Bakhtiari is willing to take a deep ten-figure pay cut and add more into at-risk incentives and per-game bonuses, then maybe he returns for 2024.


Technically an extension could happen, but I don't see a world where the Packers commit any more money unless they are 5000% certain his medical issues are behind him. If the Packers release Bakhtiari before the start of the 2024 season in March, they would gain $20.9 million of cap savings from his contract as a starting point. If he does not pass a physical before getting released, the Packers would have to pay him at least $2.05 million of his 2024 salary, of which $1.23 million would count on the 2024 salary cap as injury protection benefit. There is a fringe legal case where Bakhtiari could file an injury grievance over his entire 2024 salary, but I won't dive into that here. However, if Bakhtiari is on the Packers roster after the start of the 2024 league year and later released this grievance scenario becomes much more possible and poses a significant cap risk for the Packers. In other words,

I strongly feel the Packers need decide on David Bakhtiari before March 13th and not allow his "as-is" contract to hit the books for 2024. The Packers could seek to trade Bakhtiari but comes with complications. The new team would have to clear him medically after his multiple 2023 knee surgeries and be willing to give up draft picks for his $21.5 million contract. Also, trades cannot happen until after March 13th so the Packers would have to carry his contract into the 2024 season which is risky (see above) all while being cap compliant with his $40 million deal still on the books. I doubt Bakhtiari would agree to lower his salary to aid a trade unless he controls where he will go. The worst case would be agreeing to a trade, having the new team fail his medicals, then landing back with the Packers scrambling for a way forward. I tend to believe the Packers can no longer afford to take a "wait and see" approach and a hard decision needs to be made here before March 13th resulting in an outright release.