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**Cheesehead Craig** · 07-20-2007, 02:50 PM

It certainly will be interesting to see how the Colts and Manning do when Marvin Harrison decides to hang it up. That guy is one of the most phenominal receivers ever. There's not a better route runner in the league and that is a huge plus for Manning. He's impossible to replace.

I feel Manning will break some of Marino's records, definately the TD one. There's simply too much talent on the Colts in the forseeable future for him to not get it. If there's been one thing he's done well, it's throwing TD's.

**The Leaper** · 07-20-2007, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Cheesehead Craig

If there's been one thing he's done well, it's throwing TD's.

Actually, you are entirely incorrect. Sure, he had one ridiculous season where he broke Marino's record. Outside of that one, he has struggled to reach 30 TDs a year with an all-star cast. There is little reason to believe he can continue at his current pace as Harrison ages and the Colts take a future downturn.

Favre routinely tossed 30+ TDs a year throughout his career...and has proven to be far more consistent in that regard than Manning, despite a lesser supporting cast on average.

Manning has a better chance to catch the total yardage number...as he routinely puts up well over 4000 yards a year in passing, a number Favre rarely has achieved...mostly due to the inferior weather conditions in Green Bay during Nov/Dec.

When Manning gets knocked out of the game with a concussion...only to run back on the field on 4th down to throw a 30 yard laser strike for a TD...then not remember any of it afterward...then I might THINK about putting him on the same level as Favre.

Otherwise, Manning is just another whining softie.

**Cheesehead Craig** · 07-20-2007, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by The Leaper

Originally posted by Cheesehead Craig

If there's been one thing he's done well, it's throwing TD's.

Actually, you are entirely incorrect. Sure, he had one ridiculous season where he broke Marino's record. Outside of that one, he has struggled to reach 30 TDs a year with an all-star cast. There is little reason to believe he can continue at his current pace as Harrison ages and the Colts take a future downturn.

Favre routinely tossed 30+ TDs a year throughout his career...and has proven to be far more consistent in that regard than Manning, despite a lesser supporting cast on average.

Manning has a better chance to catch the total yardage number...as he routinely puts up well over 4000 yards a year in passing, a number Favre rarely has achieved...mostly due to the inferior weather conditions in Green Bay during Nov/Dec.

When Manning gets knocked out of the game with a concussion...only to run back on the field on 4th down to throw a 30 yard laser strike for a TD...then not remember any of it afterward...then I might THINK about putting him on the same level as Favre.

Otherwise, Manning is just another whining softie.

Manning has never had a season where he threw for under 26 TDs, I'd call that consistency. So I daresay I am nowhere near "entirely incorrect".

Manning goes for 6 more years at his avg of 28 TDs/yr and he'll be knocking at the door at whatever record Favre has. I don't think this is all that outrageous of a belief. It certainly will depend on Manning's health and if he just decides to hang it up before then.

I certainly am not slamming or dismissing any of Favre's accomplishments. Just voicing my opinion on a QB while not wearing green and gold glasses.

**The Leaper** · 07-20-2007, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Cheesehead Craig

Manning goes for 6 more years at his avg of 28 TDs/yr and he'll be knocking at the door at whatever record Favre has. I don't think this is all that outrageous of a belief. It certainly will depend on Manning's health and if he just decides to hang it up before then.

I certainly am not slamming or dismissing any of Favre's accomplishments. Just voicing my opinion on a QB while not wearing green and gold glasses.

I probably didn't utilize the quote correctly to get across my point. I did not mean you were wrong in saying that Manning throws a lot of TDs. I meant you were wrong in saying he is more likely to break the TD mark (or "definately") than anything else.

I'm not biased to Favre...I'm looking at stats AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN and not merely just projecting numbers out as if Manning is going to keep playing as he currently is for another 6 years into his late 30s.

Manning will likely break 60,000 yards passing easily in 100 more career games (~6 seasons) which is why he is MORE LIKELY to break the yardage mark than the TD mark.

To me, Manning and Marino compare very favorably as passers. Marino's TD numbers dropped DRAMATICALLY after 10 years in the league.

Marino first 10 years: 1.95 TDs per start
Marino last 7 years: 1.43 TDs per start (26.6% decrease)

Marino's yardage numbers did not decline as dramatically.

Marino first 10 years: 265 yards per start
Marino last 7 years: 240 yards per start (9.4% decrease)

The same is likely to happen to Manning, who is in a similar position of seeing his elite WR group start to fade in the years ahead. His TD numbers are much more likely to decline based on what is likely to happen in the next 4-6 years than his yardage numbers.

That is why it is MORE LIKELY for Manning to break the yardage record of either Favre or Marino. He has a ridiculous head start...and isn't as likely to fade in that category as he could in others, as evidenced by Marino.

**Cheesehead Craig** · 07-20-2007, 05:21 PM

So Manning will keep up his yardage average for 6 yrs but not his TD avg?

You say you are using stats as they are likely to happen, but you are projecting his current yardage output for this yardage record claim in 6 years. You then state that his current TD production cannot be used for a projection as it's not "likely to happen". You cannot use the current yardage projection but not the TD projection, you can't have it both ways.

I would say that if he is going to have 4000+ yds/season as you are projecting in your argument, it's safe to say that he'll have 28 TD/season as well, which would make the TD record very much in jeapordy. I seriously doubt that he can have that many yards without the TDs to go with them.

See we're both happy.

**4and12to12and4** · 07-20-2007, 06:27 PM

Manning is gonna get injured, and be without Marvin Harrison within three years. He will NEVER catch up to Favre OR Marino, IMO. The odds of age and how most QB's eventually fade considerably once they hit 34 or 35 years old. Brett is the EXCEPTION to the rule. Manning will never do it. Too many odds against him.

Especially since, if he comes close, there are probably a few here willing to assassinate him.

**Rastak** · 07-20-2007, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by 4and12to12and4

Manning is gonna get injured, and be without Marvin Harrison within three years. He will NEVER catch up to Favre OR Marino, IMO. The odds of age and how most QB's eventually fade considerably once they hit 34 or 35 years old. Brett is the EXCEPTION to the rule. Manning will never do it. Too many odds against him.

Especially since, if he comes close, there are probably a few here willing to assassinate him.

I would guess there are zero willing to do that....well, maybe you....I'll be the first to call the FBI...

**the_idle_threat** · 07-20-2007, 07:23 PM

I'm too busy right now sighting in Bonds ...

**Rastak** · 07-20-2007, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by the_idle_threat

I'm too busy right now sighting in Bonds ...

Henry Aaron was the man!

Great guy, great player.....I'm not advocating going Sopranos on Barry either mind you.....

**Scott Campbell** · 07-20-2007, 08:53 PM

If Manning breaks any of Brett's records, I don't think it will diminish anything that Favre accomplished.

**Rastak** · 07-20-2007, 09:16 PM