Deputy Nutz - Jeremiah Wright connection

[red]

here, i'm looking at some numbers

lets say best case senario for clinton. the votes from the primary night holds up in those states. clinton wins 50-33 in florida, and 55-40 in michigan

michigan had 128 delegates attached to that vote, florida, i think the number is 185 tied to that vote

so rough counts

florida

clinton-92.5
obama-61

clinton nets 32 delegates in florida

michigan

clinton-70.4
obama-51.2

clinton nets about 19 delegates

so she gains around 51 delegates

obama is up by 161 according to cnn. so if you count those two states the way they happened obama is still up by 110

now if you do a revote, the magins will at least be smaller in michigan because obama wasn't even on the ballot and most obama folks didn't even bother to vote at that point.

oh and btw, the clinton party has rejected the latest offer out of michigan on how to count votes. so if you want to play the blame game, at this point, she is the one not letting the people of michigan's vote count. just like when obama's lawyer raised concerns about how a revote would be done, the obama camp was labeled as trying to stop the votes from counting
still a huge lead that would be hard to overcome with whats left

i think, correct me if i'm wrong, there is 217 delegates left that are based on primaries. she would have to win those states 75-25 or so to pull even. without super delegates counted, thogh obama does seem to have the momentum there

[Harlan Huckleby]

red, MI & FL are about more than the delegates, it also about psychology and timing. We've known for a long time that SuperDelegates were going to have the final say. Obama had a lot of reasons for blocking revotes when he did.

Clinton vrs Obama aside, having a nomination where MI & FL votes didn't count is illegitimate. The seating of the delegates is not the whole picture. And there were so many details of the process that are open to interpretation. For instance, why should the Super Delegates be counted before the convention? They are free to switch before then, and have been doing so regularly.

It was a very dirty campaign. NEver seen such a name-calling ordeal before ever. Obama supporters attacked Clinton, as if character assinations against her didn't fall into the "dirty politics" category. Clinton supporters attacked Obama supports.

[red]

i completely agree you have to include fl and mi somehow

one big reason is the democrats in those states could decide to turn their back on the party if they aren't represented, and vote for the other side in the fall.

who ever wins the nomination needs both those states in the fall

the super delegate is a very interesting matter. we'll say for arguments sake, things ended right now, no more primaries. the people would have voted for obama, by like 600,00o more votes. but then lets say the super delegates go the exact opposite way and give clinton the overall win

is that right? what was the point of having the whole primary process if you're just going to throw out the results? talk about your average americans votes not counting for anything. on the otherside, if they split up the SD's at the same propotion as the rest of the delegates, then why even have sd's?

i think the dems need to throw out everything after this election and start over. they're really dropping the ball on this one. they had a golden opportunity to take over after 8 horrible years with bush, and the party is just fucking it up

[red]

oh, and obama never blocked a revote. thats a dirty myth.

michigan legislation shot it down, we have no money for a revote. even one of hillaries supporters in the government here was against it, stating it wouldn't change things enough.

if it won't change things then why spend all the money?

the only thing that i can find is that his lawyer sent a letter to michigan with concerns about a revote, like cost, and the ability to have a fair vote on short notice. the clinton campaign then wrote their own letter claiming that the obama latter was an attempt to block a revote. thats all i can find that comes close to obama blocking it. that and a bunch of people claiming he did, but none that can offer any form of proof

[red]

the plain bottom line fact of the matter is, these two states screwed up by trying to move up. the DNP told them not to, or they'll lose all their delegates. they had 30 days to change dates, and the states held firm trying to call the DNC's bluff.

didn't happen

i wish they would have punished them the same way the republicans did and just take away half the delegates, not all. at least that way the states are still represented, but still punished but not being as important

[Harlan Huckleby]

michigan legislation shot it down, we have no money for a revote.

I followed this story very closely, this is another situation about which there is massive misinformation, and some details open to interpretation.

Money was not the issue. Donors were already lined up to pay for a primary (Clinton supporters from Pennsylvania.)

Damn, I got to go watch letterman. here's a cvople old links to entertain yourself with

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080318/NEWS15/80318042

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/03/michigan-do-ove.html

[red]

heres the letter sent in by obamas camp. this is the so called letter that blocked the revote

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Robert F. Bauer

RE: Michigan Primary

DA: March 19, 2008

In the short time available, I have reviewed the proposed legislation to establish the June 3, 2008 primary, considering primarily those issues that bear on the central question of whether this election can be conducted successfully without undue risk of legal challenges, including those challenges arising out of errors or other breakdown induced by the schedule the State has proposed.

No one disputes that the election will have to be hurriedly prepared; and it is further accepted that it is, in material respects, unprecedented in conception and proposed structure. Michigan will be, for example, the first to state to have re-run an election in circumstances like these, to redress violations of party rules, and it will be the first to do so with the state supplying the legislative and administrative support but with private parties underwriting the costs with "soft money". Whether the state can achieve its goals here depends on the nature and seriousness of the legal and administrative questions presented by this initiative—questions that, raised after the election, could put at risk the running of the election, undermine acceptance of the results if the election is held, and in both cases effectively deny Michigan voters, a second consecutive time, meaningful participation in the nominating process.

For the reasons discussed briefly below, there are such questions and they are serious both in nature and in their potential, if not likely, impact on the June election. . . . proposal.

[red]

you know, in all honesty the state doesn't need to wait for obama's support

if they want their states to be taken seriously and have their votes count, then they need to just do it. they don't need both their blessings

just do it. if the DNC says to do it, then it should happen. but the dnc needs to be there looking over everything like a hawk to make sure things are legit

and i say let clintons supporters pay for it if they want, as long as its donations to the dnc, so that the party has control over how the money is used.

let her and her followers waste some more of their money

[texaspackerbacker]

I heard that they both have state level elections in August, so it would be entirely feasible to have a re-vote. Supposedly, Hillary was for it, and Obama against it.

I doubt the Dems win Florida regardless, but if disenfranchising the state in the primary costs them Michigan, that would be big. My best projection, though, is that the Dems take Michigan even if the voters are dissed and pissed. However, McCain has enough states that he can afford to lose Michigan.

[red]

I heard that they both have state level elections in August, so it would be entirely feasible to have a re-vote. Supposedly, Hillary was for it, and Obama against it.

I doubt the Dems win Florida regardless, but if disenfranchising the state in the primary costs them Michigan, that would be big. My best projection, though, is that the Dems take Michigan even if the voters are dissed and pissed. However, McCain has enough states that he can afford to lose Michigan.

i do know that michigan has a vote in august

of course they won't win FL, its pretty clear the folks in florida will do anything to make sure the republicans win. watch the documentry hijacking democracy. they people are definately on the left, and some of their motives and tones get tiresome at times. but the meat and potatoes is very interesting, if you can weed through the rest to get to it

and i do find it amazing that in florida, in every single small market county. if they had a high number of registered democrats living there, they somehow all managed to vote the other way in the last 2 election. for instance i remember one county that was around 90% registered democrats, yrt the offical results said that bush won 90% of the vote. or how in the 2000 election one county actually posted a negative number of votes for al gore. i'm pretty sure thats impossible

[texaspackerbacker]

You'll have to look long and hard to find southerners, most of whom are good normal America-loving Americans, who are dumb enough to vote for that all-world IDIOT, Algore--regardless of what party they are registered as.

Rather than try to counter the lame conspiracy theory you apparently are gullible enough to buy into, red, I'll just say: We're damn lucky we didn't get saddled with that loon, Gore, in the White House. With him, America would have degenerated into a third world country after the economic hit of 9/11. The dipshit would have RAISED taxes instead of cutting them as Bush did--thus, ruining the economy, even on the off chance we could have survived without repeats of 9/11 under Gore.

[red]

look at the fucking numbers tex, they don't add up

if you can even add. how can you explain one county have negative votes for one guy. how can you explain multiple counties that have more votes for president then they had ballots cast?

these are not just some claims made up by quacks, these are cold hard facts, and most of the irregularities seem to favor bush. all in a state run by his little brother, imagine that

this is what cracks me up about people like you. you wave the american flag around and call others un american. but you don't give a flying fuck about democracy, you don't want everyone to be able to vote, only people like you. there is absolute hard proof that something went very wrong in florida and ohio last election, but because your guy won, all is well and those that disagree are just loons

how you can sit there and say you love this country and all it stands for where there is absolute proof that peoples votes were not counted correctly, or thrown out, or deemed irrelevent is very sad. you are the people the piss on the graves of every solder who has died to this country and for our right to vote, not the other way around

[Harlan Huckleby]

heres the letter sent in by obamas camp. this is the so called letter that blocked the revote

Obama's attorney raised many objections, He issued several long memos, I've tried to make sense of them. I don't know where you came up with this "so called letter", as if you've unmasked some phony or weak smoking gun. Lame.

Some of Obama's objections on eligibility had substance, but the Clinton camp was willing to compromise, they needed the revote on any terms.

All Obama had to do to block the revote was to withhold support. The MI State Senate Leader said directly the day that the legislation died that it would not be pursued because it did not have the support of both campaigns.

If Clinton had stood against a revote as Obama did, the media firestorm would have been deafening. Some columnist made brief mention of Obama's hardball maneuvering, but for the most part, the press turned a blind eye.

[texaspackerbacker]

I doubt the validity of those "facts". Conspiracy theories are like that--based on a foundation of lies.

Nevertheless, if it DID happen the way you and the other true believers of your little conspiracy think, the country is damn fortunate that the whole thing was perpetrated, as the total idiot, Gore, really would have ruined the country--instead of preventing repeats of 9/11 and bringing the country and the economy back so resoundingly, as Bush has done.

[Harlan Huckleby]

you know, in all honesty the state doesn't need to wait for obama's support

if they want their states to be taken seriously and have their votes count, then they need to just do it. they don't need both their blessings

Manufacturing a revote in the middle of an election is a dubious undertaking. The local politicians in both FL & MI made clear they were only going to proceed with a process if it was sanctioned as fair by both campaigns. That is understandable.

It is asking a lot for the candidates to negotiate the terms of their own contest. Obviously every rule is going to favor one side or another a little bit.

I was disappointed that Obama didn't show a little more character. I understand why he did what he did, I know Clinton would have done the same, I have mixed feelings about the ordeal.