Why Obama is a lock to win the election

[Patler]

I think McCain's biggest hurdle will be fighting the Bush hangover. The Dems should easily take the White House this year, though they probably should have beaten GB in the two previous elections, but ended up choking.

In January I thought the Dems would win the Presidency, and it wouldn't matter who their candidate was. Of course, sixteen years ago, I didn't see how Bush-the 1st could possibly lose, especially as the leading Democrats self destructed through the primaries.

I've quit predicting!

[mraynrand]

Obama will lose the election if
1) He opens his Democratic Convention speech with "I'm Reporting for Duty!"
2) He calls Lambeau Field "Lambert Field," obviously confusing it with Lambert airfield in St. Louis, except to all football fans with two licks of sense.
3) He chooses Edwards as his running mate. The Nation might elect the King, but it won't elect the King AND the Duke.

[Patler]

3) He chooses Edwards as his running mate. The Nation might elect the King, but it won't elect the King AND the Duke.

How about if he chooses the Queen? Is a monarchy possible???

[mraynrand]

3) He chooses Edwards as his running mate. The Nation might elect the King, but it won't elect the King AND the Duke.

How about if he chooses the Queen? Is a monarchy possible???

Think Huck Finn.

[Patler]

3) He chooses Edwards as his running mate. The Nation might elect the King, but it won't elect the King AND the Duke.

How about if he chooses the Queen? Is a monarchy possible???

Think Huck Finn.

I think you probably are right.

[Freak Out]

With Oprah as his running "mate" he will be unstoppable.

[Scott Campbell]

With Oprah as his running "mate" he will be unstoppable.

Will Dr. Phil be our Secretary of Defense?

[bobblehead]

I've had good success predicting elections, so here is my take. McCain is getting karma for spending all that time in a vietnam war camp. No way possible he could have beaten Hillary, or nearly any democrat. He not only doesn't inspire the republican base, he turns it off. He only had one chance in hell.

He prayed one night "please God, let the democrats nominate an extreme lefty with almost no experience whatsoever. Make it someone who espouses issues so far left that he makes me look right wing." And as makeup for those prisoner years God granted his prayer.

People are indeed sick of bush, they get sick of anyone after 8 years. The republican congress turned its base off as badly as mccain did. Nancy Pelosi took over the house and hasn't looked radical compared to the republicans in it before.

No frickin way a moderate republican should have a chance in this election. But as usual I underestimate the left. After putting up a massachusets liberal and handing bush a second term while the war was going badly they managed to go even further left while the war is going well.

Result....McCain by a better margin than bush won either election. Popular vote will be closer because of the heavy population centers, but the US map will be blood red when broken down by county. Dems will still gain a few seats in the senate and a few in the house, that is much less predictable because mccain definately has no coattails.

[Harlan Huckleby]

the passion for Obama is immense and intense. Can't compare him to John Kerry.

Obama's negatives with the Rev, etc. would have squashed an ordinary mortal by now.

[bobblehead]

the passion for Obama is immense and intense. Can't compare him to John Kerry.

Obama's negatives with the Rev, etc. would have squashed an ordinary mortal by now.

That passion is called fed up with current situation, it can be quashed in a hurry when his true colors show. It is also passion of young americans who historically are not a reliable voting block.

how many people who say they support obama really know his positions on taxes...crime....regulatory burden? They know he is smooth and says hope and change a lot.

[texaspackerbacker]

2) is just crap

So you have failed to notice the positive spin and protection Obama gets in the media?

Oh that's right, you are exclusively a Fox News , Rush Limbaugh, and "Cracker Today" guy.

I keep forgetting, Harlan, you and I are on the same side--with regard to the election.

You presented a good well thought out case. Permit me to state several reasons why I'm not so sure you are correct:

1. Even though Obama has "all that money", what is he gonna say? The key to his success is having LESS known about him, not MORE. Face it, the guy is an all out left wing extremist. Democrat voters--actually around half of them were receptive to that --or just didn't care in the primaries. Swing voters and undecideds--if they are thinking people at all--and many are, will be turned off in greater and greater numbers when the truth comes out about Obama's position on the issues.

2. You are totally correct about the media doing everything it can for Obama and for the left in general. This is something our side will have to fix in the future. For this election, we just have to live with it and survive. That's where McCain comes in. I am completely turned off by about 25% of what he stands for and lukewarm about 50% or so more. But in an electorate that has been poisoned by the media against the "Republican brand", he has the best chance to overcome the reality of media bias.

3, Look at the electoral vote map. About 3/4 or more of the states are what they are, and neither candidate is going to make a dent in the other guy's territory. The states that are "in play", however, tend to favor McCain greatly IMO. Florida, for example, is an absolute must for McCain, and he WILL win--for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the Dem primary debacle. Michigan, IMO, is a must for Obama, and McCain has a good chance there--also not the least reason being the Dem primary debacle. They are talking about Obama cutting into Republican territory in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada--fat chance of that. McCain, on the other hand, could take West Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and maybe even Minnesota, not to mention Michigan. It may all come down to Ohio--which McCain wouldn't even need if he holds those Republican states and takes 2 or 3 of the usually Dem states. And he should win Ohio.


This far out from the last two elections, it looked strongly in favor of Gore and Kerry. Even royal losers like Dukakis had leads in the early summer.

That is not just accident or coincidence. The media--the horribly leftirt media rules the day early on. However, the closer you get to the election, the more ads, debates, etc. reduce the effect of media bias and give the electorate an unfiltered picture of what the candidates are for and against. That hurt Gore; That killed Kerry; And I really think it will absolutely annihilate Obama--because the bottom line here is:

Obama is an all out extremist--completely out of tune with the views and values of the American people.

[Harlan Huckleby]

how many people who say they support obama really know his positions on taxes...crime....regulatory burden? They know he is smooth and says hope and change a lot.

most people will not vote based on these issues. The undecided voters will vote on the economy, if they vote on any issue at all. Most undecideds will vote on who they like the best.

[sheepshead]

the passion for Obama is immense and intense. Can't compare him to John Kerry.

Obama's negatives with the Rev, etc. would have squashed an ordinary mortal by now.

I wont compare the two men, I will reiterate my belief in the system after the 2004 election. I was so concerned that I went to Wisconsin(a swing state) for several nights and worked on GWB's campaign. The turnout for Bush restored my faith in the system and this country really. This guy is a more glaring example. The battle hasnt even begun because Hillary could only go so far in policy criticism and lack of resume because she's the same type of candidate. Also, there are major voting blocks that will not under any circumstances, no matter how much money he spends, vote for him. 45-46 state McCain landslide.

p.s. I was surprised Bush lost. He was 10-1 ahead in calls I made. Lots of "lost ballets" up there for that one as it turned out. McCain should win Wisconsin this time around.

[Harlan Huckleby]

will be turned off in greater and greater numbers when the truth comes out about Obama's position on the issues.

No truths are going to come out about issues. His voting record is very short. And his positions are vague, carefully calibrated.

The election will turn on the character of BO. I think the Repubs will be able to rough him up some, but not enough.

[texaspackerbacker]

will be turned off in greater and greater numbers when the truth comes out about Obama's position on the issues.

No truths are going to come out about issues. His voting record is very short. And his positions are vague, carefully calibrated.

The election will turn on the character of BO. I think the Repubs will be able to rough him up some, but not enough.

Harlan, he can't hide forever. McCain in debates, as well as in ads will spell out Obama's horrendous tax and spend agenda; Obama himself, will probably expose his healthcare takeover plan--which amounts to warmed over Hillary-care; His commitment to cutting and running in the face of victory in Iraq will be pointed out more and more; His voting record on security, his statements about unconditional negotiating with lunatic enemies, and his is following of the dangerous Kerry approach to preventing terrorism at home. Exposure of Obama's positions on ALL of those things and a good deal more will erode his support significantly.

And even if your estimate that Obama's "character" or lack of it will be a major factor, he loses there too. If all that is known is his associates--and maybe his wife, then those assocaites--and wife--serve inordinately to define Obama himself. That might be unfair to some people, but in Obama's case, I think he really IS very similar to Wright, Ayres, Pflaggert, Michelle, etc.