Running game - Is it really the guys up front?

[pbmax]

Raw yardage doesn't tell you anything if you can't put it in context. Offense needs first downs and scores. If a 1 yard carry gets a first, its a success.

If you get 7 yards on 3rd and 8, its a failure.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

DuJuan Haris 31.4
James Starks -4.1
Cedric Benson -6.1
John Kuhn -7.9
Alex Green -16.7

[sharpe1027]

Raw yardage doesn't tell you anything if you can't put it in context. Offense needs first downs and scores. If a 1 yard carry gets a first, its a success.

If you get 7 yards on 3rd and 8, its a failure.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

DuJuan Haris 31.4
James Starks -4.1
Cedric Benson -6.1
John Kuhn -7.9
Alex Green -16.7

Bensons success rate was better than green and Starks. No stats for Harris on that.

[denverYooper]

Raw yardage doesn't tell you anything if you can't put it in context. Offense needs first downs and scores. If a 1 yard carry gets a first, its a success.

If you get 7 yards on 3rd and 8, its a failure.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

DuJuan Haris 31.4
James Starks -4.1
Cedric Benson -6.1
John Kuhn -7.9
Alex Green -16.7

Like a rolling ball of butcher knives.

[Guiness]

Raw yardage doesn't tell you anything if you can't put it in context. Offense needs first downs and scores. If a 1 yard carry gets a first, its a success.

If you get 7 yards on 3rd and 8, its a failure.

Hmmm. Ain't that the truth.

A 27yd pass on 4th and 26...that's a success too, right?

[Harlan Huckleby]

Raw yardage doesn't tell you anything if you can't put it in context.

This argument could apply to every stat. Yes, stats have their limits.

[Harlan Huckleby]

But in a league where the very best (LT) are only average, who cares?

It's true that the yardage distributions are similar for all backs, but the takeaway is not the very best are average. Those distributions still tell a lot. The lesson is that the differences don't pop out at you, you have to look closely to see the subtle differences that mean everything.

[Guiness]

It's true that the yardage distributions are similar for all backs, but the takeaway is not the very best are average. Those distributions still tell a lot. The lesson is that the differences don't pop out at you, you have to look closely to see the subtle differences that mean everything.

The other comment in the article was about durability. The cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-average level over the course of an above-average number of plays. Having an 'average' player means he's better than half the league, and if you have him all the time that's an exceptional thing.

[pbmax]

This argument could apply to every stat. Yes, stats have their limits.

That is why looking at more than one while evaluating is good. I would prefer a RB who can break big runs and be a threat for a home run.

But there is only so much other success in the middle of a drive that I am willing to sacrifice to have that chance.

[pbmax]

Chalk one up for RB being the difference: http://jerseyal.com/GBP/2013/08/20/p...ffensive-line/

In this first video, Lacy breaks off an 8 yard run, but no thanks to Evan Dietrich-Smith (EDS), who can not handle the speed of the gap-shooting DL. Lacy. Matthew Mulligan is also beat badly, and Lacy is confronted with two ST. Louis DL in his path, two yards deep in the backfield. For another running back, this is a loss of a few yards. But thanks to his much-renowned spin move, Lacy gets away from that trouble, breaks a tackle past the line of scrimmage and then plows through a few more defenders for some extra yards. It’s good to have a real running back, isn’t it?

[pbmax]

This is a reach block by EDS. It is the kind of thing Wells learned to excel at. Its a tough block because the DT has a head start to play side.

This is also the reason we should hope for JC Tretter's return to form.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=0MxN3n5tPXo

I would recommend all the video at the kink above as it also shows Bach and DJ Williams collectively deciding not to block the DE. I think Williams is at fault here because Sitton runs at the weakside backer and Bach would naturally have the playside backer.

http://jerseyal.com/GBP/2013/08/20/packers-rams-video-second-look-offensive-line/

[Harlan Huckleby]

This is a reach block by EDS. It is the kind of thing Wells learned to excel at. Its a tough block because the DT has a head start to play side.

It also looks close to being illegal by the new rules.

Some packer O-lineman got flagged for it in last game. Essentially you can't clip near the line of scrimmage when the defender is ...... hell, I don't remember how it works. But what got flagged looks a bit like that reach block.

[run pMc]

The difference with benson was that he was getting enough yards to keep drives alive when teams were daring the pack to run with cover 2. What the packers needed was 3.5 yards average without a 20 yarder offsetting several drive killing zero yarders.

Look, I am the original poster to hammer the more favorable down and distance concept around here, but a 3.5 avg. is not special. Period. End of story. Cedric got carries. He got them early. MM using him properly was the most impressive thing about him. Lacy will do the same, but avg. 4.2 ypc and you will understand that benson stinks and is old. Starks and DeJuan Harris are better backs than Benson was last year.

I agree with both of you, more or less. MM gave up on running too soon at times, especially early in the year and then in the SF playoff game. Even if you're getting 3.5 ypc -- which admittedly is not great -- it's enough of a threat to force the defense to honor the run, which was something defenses often did not do against Rodgers and the passing game.

The running game is improved over having to bring back Ryan Grant...but make no mistake, Rodgers and the passing game is what makes the offense sing. The running game is there to make it more effective with play action, pulling defenses out of cover-2, keep them in manageable down/distances, etc.

...I think we're agreeing on the major points, but I don't think M3 hates running the ball. I think his emphasis on the running game ("big letters", etc.) is proof of that, as is TT's drafting of Lacy/Franklin. I do think he lost confidence in his RBs and maybe the OL (EDS > Saturday and Barclay > Newhouse with run blocking), and either felt forced to throw it or simply got too enamored of letting the previous season's MVP sling it in his offense.

I don't think we'll see a huge change in the run/pass ratio, but I think runs will be more consistently called and more effective thru this season.

[mraynrand]

It's true that the yardage distributions are similar for all backs, but the takeaway is not the very best are average. Those distributions still tell a lot. The lesson is that the differences don't pop out at you, you have to look closely to see the subtle differences that mean everything.

Of course, that's what I've been saying all along. But also that the best runners and running teams make those goddamm curves (better average runs and more of them). Put Packer running backs on there and you'll see their curve shifts to the left. How else can LT look "Average?"

[Guiness]

Chalk one up for RB being the difference: http://jerseyal.com/GBP/2013/08/20/p...ffensive-line/

Wow, really good run by Lacy. Unfortunately he won't be able to consistently do that, that spin move will get him stuffed once defenders learn to recognize it. Hopefully he doesn't over-use it and it stays effective.

Blocking looked horrible. Not sure about the claim that there were 2 ST-L DL right there, EDS was pushing one from behind and it looked like he didn't have much of a chance to make a play on Lacy.

[mraynrand]

It also looks close to being illegal by the new rules.

Some packer O-lineman got flagged for it in last game. Essentially you can't clip near the line of scrimmage when the defender is ...... hell, I don't remember how it works. But what got flagged looks a bit like that reach block.

you can't start a block below the waist. I believe you can finish below the waist, the thinking being sometimes you slip. This last point is critical to protect lousy linemen, aka "Packers"