Me and my pal Wist (or, worst Training Camp EVER!!)

[wist43]

Wist, and I get the impression that fucker tormented you with your fears. It's almost like you NEED to be heard really badly when you see something is wrong because somebody (a sociopath father, maybe) never let the healthy worries and fears be tended to (like don't jump off a bridge because it might kill you.)

You worries on the Packers are completely legit, man. I wanna be optimistic and hope for the best, but I completely understand the things you see as weaknesses or concerns.

lol... nah, having a father like that just forces ya to grow up quick - I was on my own at 16, and was more of a parent to him by the time I was 18 than he ever was to me. It is what it is... He did teach me strategy at a very young age though - and it is true that there is a fine line between genius and madness. In a lot of ways my father was a genius - no one ever doubted his intelligence; but he used it for evil - he really was an evil human being. Enough about that idiot though...

As for strategy - I just see the field and formations different than most I guess. There are a lot of DC's out there that view playing defense the way I do... Dom Capers is not one of them.

I used to tape Chicago Bear games back in the 80's and study them for hours - Buddy Ryan really was a defensive genius... he just failed to adapt when the league caught up to him. Not very Sun Tzu'ish, lol...

I didn't like the 3-4 much back then b/c it was so static... most teams, including the packers ran a very predictable version of it - the Giants did more with it, but they had HOF/Pro Bowl talent all over the place - certainly makes it easier. Dick LeBeau and a few other innovators did much to diversify the 3-4 though, and it became much more of an attack defense over the years. Eventually I switched over my allegiance to the 3-4 b/c of all the versatility it offered and b/c you could, for the most part, build a 3-4 championship calibur defense more cheaply than a 4-3 in the salary cap era. I agree with Brian Bellick on that. Don't know that that's necessary true today, but 10 years ago it was.

----------------------------------------------------

Here's an analogy for you, Anderson Silva vs Chris Weidman

Silva, with all that talent... clowning, taunting - very undisciplined and unsound in what he does. He gets away with it b/c his talent has been better than everyone he's come up against.

Meet Chris Weidman - fundamentally sound fighter. Straight up tough. Act the fool at your own risk. Silva got knocked out.

What Capers does is the equivalent of what Silva did against Weidman - he doesn't do it out of arrogance, or tactically like Silva does, but he does it nonetheless... abandon the basics, and you'll eventually get knocked out - or gashed for huge chunks of yardage and big points.

Capers, and most PackerRats, think it is the players - they're wrong. What Capers is doing is unsound, and we're going to get our asses handed to us again this year by power teams. Unless, of course, Capers pulls his head out of his ass - and actually squares up his front (6).

[wist43]

Not at all. Its an issue that has been developing since 2010 and has some roots in 2009 (pass defense) and even 2007 (pass rush without KGB and Williams, run D with KGB). I am plenty concerned about the deterioration and the farther the Packers get from 2010 without popping back into the Top 10 or 15 defensively makes me think its an institutional problem.

But we disagree on the scope and causes of the problem. Its unclear what will happen with the offense in 2013, but average defense puts the Packers in the NFC Championship Game in each of the last 3 years. That is the scope of the problem.

The cause of the problem is far more mysterious. If the Packers can handle a Seahawks offense, then the LOS isn't the tire fire everyone believes it to be. San Fran was assignment and speed. Walden and Woodson might simply not have been up to the task from a talent standpoint but there are weakpoints of any defense. And the Giants have beaten the Packers will big plays on offense.

Now I used to think the hole on D was personnel related but that has largely be rectified I believe in the last 2 drafts. What remains are assignments and game plans for the players you have.

I agree with you that Capers has picked the wrong game plan for opponents at times. San Fran playoff game was a surprise (CK read option). Giants playoff game in Lambeau was no such thing. But that happens to everyone (ask Atlanta about their gameplan versus Rodgers in the first half of the playoff game in the Super Bowl year).

The problem I have is that while you can say the offense never puts it into a higher gear for comebacks, they do make definitive adjustments and execute differently from half to half. My concern on the defensive side is that once a game goes bad, it does not seem to get better to give the O a chance.

Is this Capers fault? Ultimately yes, and should the D fail again, he will be the one sacrificed. But its more than 2-4 or 3 man pass rush. Why are there still problems with execution and with recovering from a bad start? I think the Defense suffers from odd parts in places, where talent doesn't match scheme (Raji) or the secondary, where talent does not play all coverages well. Capers? Maybe, but I tend to think its the assistants and the development of players to execute the system.

What I don't buy is that Thompson and McCarthy don't value toughness or size or line play nor do I buy that Capers has lost his fastball or is fundamentally unsound. Same way I don't buy that Bob Sanders failed simply because his defense was static.

And its not like he isn't trying. The Game Day thread for the playoff game was screaming for a spy and Capers deployed on to no effect at times in that game and he gave a pretty thorough account of the adjustments they went to in that game. But there is a mismatch between the three guys in charge that keeps putting out a defense that can come unglued.

P.S. Thompson has some culpability here, more than likely. Aside from injuries, a player like Sam Shields who is pressed into service after virtually no training needs time to develop. Its probably not a coincidence that he is only now learning to play off coverages and tackle. And they way the personnel department is setup, he had to be the cornerback on the field, there were no trained but limited vets to come in and help.

I agree with most of that Max...

I will say this about the Thompson/Capers collaberation in selecting the players -

The players they have selected are not traditional 3-4 players. I think most of us agree on that... so that leaves us with having to play the "3-4" in a less than traditional way. No biggy, I'm okay with that - what does that mean though??

If a traditional 3-4 calls for most of the high-end talent to be concentrated at the LB positions - yet we have concentrated our high-end talent on the DL - Capers needs to adjust accordingly, i.e. we should be playing 3-3 and 4-2 nickel packages to take advantage of the talent we have on the DL.

Capers has not, and likely will not, do this.

By playing the 2-4 he is taking our high-end DL talent and parking it on the bench; and taking our pedestrian LB talent, sans Matthews and Perry who are rushing (a static and predictable rush), and putting them in coverage assignments.

He cares nothing about abandoning the middle of the field; he rushes the Ends up the field and gives up contain b/c everyone is in coverage with their back to the play, or too deep to step up and fill the gaps. This is unsound - there's no other way to assess it.

We all see the results - Capers says it's the players, and most PackerRats on this board accept that as gospel. I do not accept that b/c I see that what he is doing is unsound. If he doesn't make the proper adjustments this year - TT will have no choice but to fire him at the end of the year, b/c if he keeps doing what he's been doing?? We're going to keep seeing the same results - and those results have been entirely unacceptable.

[mraynrand]

If a traditional 3-4 calls for most of the high-end talent to be concentrated at the LB positions - yet we have concentrated our high-end talent on the DL - Capers needs to adjust accordingly, i.e. we should be playing 3-3 and 4-2 nickel packages to take advantage of the talent we have on the DL.

Capers has not, and likely will not, do this.

Matthews, Perry, and Hawk are first round picks. Perry is an unknown, Hawk never lived up to draft potential, and Clay is a star. Seems like a lot of talent. D-Line: Jones and Raji are first round. A couple other top round guys who haven't seen the field much due to injury. Raji is in danger of being the Hawk of the D-line. Still, I see more talent at LB. Either way, the problem is pass rush. 3-4, 4-3, 2-5, whatever - if Capres can't get pass rush from the front seven, then he needs better coverage. Seems he is splitting the baby by sending d-backs to rush (esp Woodson who could play LB, corner and pass rush - the "W" position) and or play coverage, but have to hold up longer because the pass rush is mediocre. Part of the problem is the talent drop off (loss of top flight Woodson and Collins in the same year), injuries to linemen and LBs and inexperience. I think Capers could be sound according to your definition, Wist, he just doesn't know what the pieces he has can do yet, so I bet you see a lot of experimentation. He can be alignment sound all you want, but the players have to have the talent to generate pressure and stop the run somewhat consistently. Who among the D-line and LBs do you know the full book on at this point?

[wist43]

Matthews, Perry, and Hawk are first round picks. Perry is an unknown, Hawk never lived up to draft potential, and Clay is a star. Seems like a lot of talent. D-Line: Jones and Raji are first round. A couple other top round guys who haven't seen the field much due to injury. Raji is in danger of being the Hawk of the D-line. Still, I see more talent at LB. Either way, the problem is pass rush. 3-4, 4-3, 2-5, whatever - if Capres can't get pass rush from the front seven, then he needs better coverage. Seems he is splitting the baby by sending d-backs to rush (esp Woodson who could play LB, corner and pass rush - the "W" position) and or play coverage, but have to hold up longer because the pass rush is mediocre. Part of the problem is the talent drop off (loss of top flight Woodson and Collins in the same year), injuries to linemen and LBs and inexperience. I think Capers could be sound according to your definition, Wist, he just doesn't know what the pieces he has can do yet, so I bet you see a lot of experimentation. He can be alignment sound all you want, but the players have to have the talent to generate pressure and stop the run somewhat consistently. Who among the D-line and LBs do you know the full book on at this point?

We have 1 LB (Matthews), 1 tweener (Perry), and a revolving door of prospects at LB - that's it.

You say Raji is in danger of becoming "the Hawk" of the DL - but that is b/c of how Capers is misusing him, and that is the point.

Now you add Jones to the mix, who is also not a natural fit in a 3-4; Daniels - not a fit; Neal - sort of a fit for a 3-4 DE, but never worked out in that role...

All those guys together though... Raji, Neal, Daniels, Jones - and throw Perry in there; and mix in Pickett, Wilson (who has amazingly come around to be a decent player now), and now Jolly... and that group is both much stronger as a unit than the LB's, and much better suited to hybrid 30/40 alignments.

Use them to their strengths, and we could have something - misuse them to what Capers has been doing, and we have a mess.

Perry never wanted to play LB to begin with - let him put his hand on the ground on passing downs, and roam B. Jones (hopefully someone better - soon) behind him; rotate personnel inside, and keep Matthews coming off the edge and on stunts.

I've explained why what Capers is doing is unsound - what I've just described accounts for maintaining gap control, generating pressure, and policing the short middle. All areas of responsibility Capers habitually ignores or doesn't account for with sufficient concern.

We generated pass rush last year - we had 47 sacks (I think); but how many times did we get a sack, or penalty that pushed the offense back to 2nd and 18, 3rd and 17, and then Capers turns around and goes soft with a 3 man rush, or his patented 2-4... and the offense easily busts it and picks up the 1st down??

It happened all too often - Capers has a nasty habit of not pressing his advantage.

[mraynrand]

We have 1 LB (Matthews), 1 tweener (Perry), and a revolving door of prospects at LB - that's it.

You say Raji is in danger of becoming "the Hawk" of the DL - but that is b/c of how Capers is misusing him, and that is the point.

Now you add Jones to the mix, who is also not a natural fit in a 3-4; Daniels - not a fit; Neal - sort of a fit for a 3-4 DE, but never worked out in that role...

All those guys together though... Raji, Neal, Daniels, Jones - and throw Perry in there; and mix in Pickett, Wilson (who has amazingly come around to be a decent player now), and now Jolly... and that group is both much stronger as a unit than the LB's, and much better suited to hybrid 30/40 alignments.

Use them to their strengths, and we could have something - misuse them to what Capers has been doing, and we have a mess.

We generated pass rush last year - we had 47 sacks (I think)

Of the 46 sacks, only 11.5 came from the d-line, 5.5 from the secondary. "Use them to their strengths, and we could have something " Sure, if by using them to their strengths means they can generate pressure and stop the run. I just don't see how you can know whether Perry is being misused when he's hardly played (2 sacks in 6 games, one called back by penalty), certainly not Jones, and nearly the same can be said of Daniels and Neal. I hope Capers uses them to their strengths and that includes pass rush and ability to follow assignments. Maybe Capers won't feel like he has to play coverage on 2nd or 3rd and long if he can get a rush from a three man line. Will be interesting to observe.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Of the 46 sacks, only 11.5 came from the d-line, 5.5 from the secondary. "Use them to their strengths, and we could have something " Sure, if by using them to their strengths means they can generate pressure and stop the run. I just don't see how you can know whether Perry is being misused when he's hardly played (2 sacks in 6 games, one called back by penalty), certainly not Jones, and nearly the same can be said of Daniels and Neal. I hope Capers uses them to their strengths and that includes pass rush and ability to follow assignments. Maybe Capers won't feel like he has to play coverage on 2nd or 3rd and long if he can get a rush from a three man line. Will be interesting to observe.

This defense isn't built for DL to get sacks. They come from the LBs. Pittsburgh's DL had 11 sacks last year. Keisel had 4.5 sacks last year. Nobody else had more than 3. The sacks will come from a variety of positions, but mostly it falls to the OLBs. Perry needs to step up. It would be nice if they had 2-3 DL in the 4-6 sack range though.

[pbmax]

The dilemma is essentially this: in the standard 3-4 (think 2009), Packer personnel did not get enough pass rush even with Matthews out there with Jenkins. Now some of that is a 3 man rush on 3rd and forever, and the Packers inability to play zone for long enough to force the short throw and tackle the guy before he runs for a first. If I have seen the Steelers do this once, I have seen it one thousand times. But great run defense is useless if you can't stop people throwing on 3rd down.

Now you could go 3-3 and play nickel to get more coverage, but those 3 lineman have only one true pass rusher among them (after Jenkins leaves its Raji). The nickel give you a CB to stick on the 3rd WR, but no additional coverage options because you are down a LB. You can zone drop a lineman but that's it. But you have not really improved the coverage that stunk in the first scenario. And unless is a zone or other type of blitz, one of your best pass rushers is in coverage.

So you go 2-4 and have all kinds of options for coverage and designated pass rushers at both OLB and D line. Best of both worlds. Unless you lose gap control and hemorrhage big runs.

One of these scenarios needs to be solved and you get a top 10 defense. Personally I like the odds of 2nd and 18 no matter how you play it.

[mraynrand]

Now you could go 3-3 and play nickel to get more coverage, but those 3 lineman have only one true pass rusher among them (after Jenkins leaves its Raji). .

that leads back to D. Jones and B. Jones. In the 3-3, if Jones cant help increase the pressure, B. Jones will get exposed by the TE, tempting Capers to go 2-4-5 or 2-3-6. Either of the latter two won't work as well as with Woodson at his peak unless Hayward can tackle like a LB and cover either a TE or WR. Asking a lot.

[wist43]

The dilemma is essentially this: in the standard 3-4 (think 2009), Packer personnel did not get enough pass rush even with Matthews out there with Jenkins. Now some of that is a 3 man rush on 3rd and forever, and the Packers inability to play zone for long enough to force the short throw and tackle the guy before he runs for a first. If I have seen the Steelers do this once, I have seen it one thousand times. But great run defense is useless if you can't stop people throwing on 3rd down.

Now you could go 3-3 and play nickel to get more coverage, but those 3 lineman have only one true pass rusher among them (after Jenkins leaves its Raji). The nickel give you a CB to stick on the 3rd WR, but no additional coverage options because you are down a LB. You can zone drop a lineman but that's it. But you have not really improved the coverage that stunk in the first scenario. And unless is a zone or other type of blitz, one of your best pass rushers is in coverage.

Again, our LB's suck... in Capers 2-4 you only have 2 LB's who have responsibility behind the line anyway - the other two are really nothing more than smallish rush DE's. In that sense, it is a 4-2 - an undersized 4-2 with at least 2 shitty LB's on the field, while the strength of your defense is standing on the sideline watching.

So you go 2-4 and have all kinds of options for coverage and designated pass rushers at both OLB and D line. Best of both worlds. Unless you lose gap control and hemorrhage big runs.

We certainly don't have the best of any world right now, b/c when Capers goes to the 2-4 he isn't generating much pressure, the Ends (Matthews and whoever) are flying up the field and if their initial speed rush doesn't get home, we're not getting enough push inside to flush the QB to them, and if we do get enough push to flush the QB, no one is in position to corral the QB or prevent him for shaking loose for big yards on the scramble.

And heaven forbid the offense actually runs the ball!!! We know what happens then in Capers vaunted 2-4.

One of these scenarios needs to be solved and you get a top 10 defense. Personally I like the odds of 2nd and 18 no matter how you play it.

Capers usually backs off - and is willing to give yds underneath... hell, he's willing to give yds everywhere. A long down-distance situation is Capers big chance to go and change his Depends. He comes back to the booth and asks, "what happened"??

----------------------------------------------------------------

Capers is great at dialing up pressure - he really is; but, and it is a huge BUT, his penchant for playing smaller than the situation calls for, his penchant for being passive and static when he is not dialing up pressure, and his lack of coordination between the front and back end are absolutely killing us.

We are getting gashed with huge gains. I know they don't keep a stat on it, but I'm sure we have more busted coverages than any other defense in the league the last 2 years - and when your DC treats run defense like it is little more than an annoyance - you're going to have huge problems. Well guess what?? We have huge problems on defense.

The SF game will tell us very quickly if Capers has actually made adjustments. Yes it's only preseason, but you practice what you are going to run to some extent in the preseason, and we have seen nothing but the same ol', same 'ol from Dom.

He really does seem to think what he is doing is sound - and that it is the players not performing... I completely disagree with that. He's passing the buck and absolving himself - that's not leadership; that's not being self-critical and scouting yourself to improve.

[wist43]

As I pointed out in the other post...

The DL is a much stronger group than the LB's - we should be taking advantage of that.

Raji, Daniels, D. Jones, Neal - and throw Perry in there as a tweener, are all pass rushers - Jolly, Wilson, and Pickett are all nice gap control, run defenders.

At LB we have 1 player - Matthews; and a bunch of junk (Perry being a tweener you could include in either catagory).

Which set of personnel do you want on the field wreaking havoc at the LOS?? Forget coverage at the outset - which personnel group do you want on the field?? You're good, to very good defensive linemen, or your shitty linebackers??

I think the answer, and the solution are obvious and simple.

[mraynrand]

As I pointed out in the other post...

The DL is a much stronger group than the LB's - we should be taking advantage of that.

Raji, Daniels, D. Jones, Neal - and throw Perry in there as a tweener, are all pass rushers - Jolly, Wilson, and Pickett are all nice gap control, run defenders.

At LB we have 1 player - Matthews; and a bunch of junk (Perry being a tweener you could include in either catagory).

Which set of personnel do you want on the field wreaking havoc at the LOS?? Forget coverage at the outset - which personnel group do you want on the field?? You're good, to very good defensive linemen, or your shitty linebackers??

I think the answer, and the solution are obvious and simple.

I still don't understand how you can rank the two, knowing at this point little to nothing about D.Jones, Perry, and somewhat Neal and Daniels. If Perry plays like a pro bowler at LB and Jones, Perry and Neal turn out average (both pass rush and run defense), then the LBs are clearly the stronger group, even with the weaknesses of Hawk and Jones. B. Jones is even a reasonable question mark, as he's only been at ILB for a short time. Barring injuries, I think all these questions of talent will come out this year, and despite your hatred, I suspect Capers will adjust accordingly. If D.Jones, Perry, and Neal (and Perry with a hand onthe ground) are better than B. Jones and Perry standing up as LBs, I bet he shifts to more D-linemen.

[Upnorth]

I still don't understand how you can rank the two, knowing at this point little to nothing about D.Jones, Perry, and somewhat Neal and Daniels. If Perry plays like a pro bowler at LB and Jones, Perry and Neal turn out average (both pass rush and run defense), then the LBs are clearly the stronger group, even with the weaknesses of Hawk and Jones. B. Jones is even a reasonable question mark, as he's only been at ILB for a short time. Barring injuries, I think all these questions of talent will come out this year, and despite your hatred, I suspect Capers will adjust accordingly. If D.Jones, Perry, and Neal (and Perry with a hand onthe ground) are better than B. Jones and Perry standing up as LBs, I bet he shifts to more D-linemen.

Not to nitpick but i don't think Hawk is a weakness, the man has played for 9 seasons now and is consistent. DOes he play like the 5th overall pick, hell no. But he is valuable and if he was released would be starter on most teams in the league. i have complained of him in the past especially when the player he tackles gets an extra 2ish yards after contact, but they are tackeled once he gets them. If jones playes 90% as well as Hawk im a happy man.

[mraynrand]

Not to nitpick but i don't think Hawk is a weakness, the man has played for 9 seasons now and is consistent. DOes he play like the 5th overall pick, hell no. But he is valuable and if he was released would be starter on most teams in the league. i have complained of him in the past especially when the player he tackles gets an extra 2ish yards after contact, but they are tackeled once he gets them. If jones playes 90% as well as Hawk im a happy man.

I think Wist thinks he's JAG. I think Hawk is reasonably solid but has weaknesses. I am concerned with both B.Jones and Hawk in coverage - both TEs and RBs.

[wist43]

Yeah, Hawk is a JAG and I wanted him replaced this offseason. I also wanted a 2-gap DL out of the draft (Brandon Williams), but we ended up with D. Jones.

So, since that is the direction TT went - Capers has to adjust his defense to take adavantage of the types of players he has.

All of our DL have shown skills - Hawk has shown he is very pedestrian; B. Jones the same thing. We're stuck with those guys, and since they just paid B. Jones, we're stuck with him for a while... that said, I'm okay with Jones on the field in passing situations as long as Capers is doing something useful up front.

As it is - we're not controlling gaps, we're not get pressure out of base pass rush looks, and we're not covering... so something's got to change, does it not?? I would submit that populating your on-field lineup with pedestrian players is likely to produce pedestrian results - at best.

In our case, the results have been disasterous at times - yet Capers keeps pointing his finger at the players?? What's wrong with that picture??

[mraynrand]

Yeah, Hawk is a JAG and I wanted him replaced this offseason. I also wanted a 2-gap DL out of the draft (Brandon Williams), but we ended up with D. Jones.

I thought perhaps they'd address two-gap DT in free agency. Risky to go in with just Pickett as a true NT. They are depending on whichever rookie DT they keep, but I suspect that's an insurance policy, and Boyd or Miller will remain inactive until Pickett can't go.
B. Williams:
"Through three preseason games, Williams has recorded 10 tackles with seven solo tackles and one sack." (In William's sack of Cam he was unblocked, untouched)
Packers could have picked Williams at the expense of either Bacteria or tretter and Franklin. Think of how bad things would look without Bacteria right now. who knows what a healthy Tretter would have done? Always gambles, uncertainty in the draft.

All of our DL have shown skills As it is - we're not controlling gaps, we're not get pressure out of base pass rush looks, and we're not covering... so something's got to change, does it not?? I would submit that populating your on-field lineup with pedestrian players is likely to produce pedestrian results - at best.

The difference is one player most of the time and as you say, Perry is a DE, so how can it be that the players you want on the field, when they are on the field aren't getting it done. I suppose you will say they are specifically being assigned to the incorrect gaps and assignments. Could it be that they aren't succeeding, as in the long TD run against Seattle? (Oh wait, that was backups who blew their assignments - so that's again Capers fault because the alignment was unsound, so that if three guys blew their assignments and/or got beat, there should have been extra backups designed into the scheme; you have to forgive me, sometimes I forget your clear, consistent and salient points)

[/QUOTE] Capers keeps pointing his finger at the players?? What's wrong with that picture??[/QUOTE]

When has Capers blamed the players?