Finley getting 57th opinion on his neck today

[pbmax]

Well, you have succeeded in showing 2 of his three touchdowns and 3 of his 25 catches.

But where are the coverage changes? Each of those throws was within 5 yards of the LOS. If he was playing for Chip Kelly, they might design an offense for him on these routes. Or if he played for Kyle Shanahan, that would be the offense.

The Browns TD has a LB on him (in zone I think). The CB is with Boykin and a fake of a slant by Boykin keeps the safety deep. So in that video, Finley is an outlet receiver who benefits from D coordinators fear of Boykin. Now that is a game changer.

But he isn't helping altering the coverage as an outlet receiver. In fact, contrary to McCarthy's assertion, I bet each of the D coordinators would be happy to give up a reception to Rodgers and Co at that distance multiple times a game.

I think the whole Finley/Rodgers thing was over these routes. He didn't want to head deep into the teeth of cover 2 and wanted something short he could break. Its works for him here. I am not sure it works for the offense as a whole.

[mraynrand]

Sometimes, he is just flat out prone.

Jordy or James would have caught they ball! They NEVER dropped a pass.

Actually, Scott Wells never dropped a pass. BRING BLACK WELLS!!!

[HarveyWallbangers]

Think about what you are suggesting.

People more important than me (e.g. Mike McCarthy) are suggesting what I wrote. Like McCarthy said last year, nobody on the roster can replace what Finley gives them. There aren't that many guys around the league that can. Maybe 10 or so. It's why Thompson paid him $8M/year, and it's why Finley would have a lot of suitors if he was cleared to play.

You can cover average TEs with LBs. Guys like Finley exploit that. That alters coverage. Teams now have to move a safety over that player or tilt coverage towards that TE. That leaves better matchups for the likes of Nelson and Cobb (and Jennings, Driver, and Jones before that).

[Patler]

You were trying to downgrade him with that comment knowing he hasn't played a full 6 seasons and knowing how Rodgers likes to spread the ball around. Finley is still a top 8 TE in the league when healthy and the defense still has to account for him on the field. Now I've gone on the record and stated we should move on from Finley but to complain about him getting too much press about 2-3 short articles deserves an

Finley has played 6 seasons. Finley has played 70 games. No matter how you want to cut it, the result is the same. In six seasons he has achieved certain things.

I have reiterated over and over that his career has been altered by injuries. But no matter how you look at it, he is now entering his seventh season, the downside of a typical career. His career production is what it is, injuries or not. Part of an athletes impact for his team is his availability. A player has no impact standing on the sidelines. In judging any player's career, we can lament the fact that injuries were an overriding factor, but that does not change what his real impact was.

As pbmax pointed out, the Finley of 2011 - 2013 was nothing like the Finley we saw at the end of 2009 and the start of 2010. I think 2013 was a pivotal year for him. Defenses seemed to realize he was not the threat he looked like he might become. Sure, he had an impressive play from time to time; but he had as many excruciating drops. He was not reliable, and it was clear at times that Rodgers did not always have faith in him in crucial situations. In short, I don't think he impacted what defenses would do all that much anymore.

Yet, in March everything was a "twitter" for a few days about him signing with the Seahawks. In April, it was the Dolphins. Just a week ago it was the Vikings. Now the Packers. In each location fans become active, and sportswriters wrote as if it was important. If the past teaches us anything, it is that his impact will be muted, albeit with splashes of excitement.

[pbmax]

People more important than me (e.g. Mike McCarthy) are suggesting what I wrote. Like McCarthy said last year, nobody on the roster can replace what Finley gives them. There aren't that many guys around the league that can. Maybe 10 or so. It's why Thompson paid him $8M/year, and it's why Finley would have a lot of suitors if he was cleared to play.

You can cover average TEs with LBs. Guys like Finley exploit that. That alters coverage. Teams now have to move a safety over that player or tilt coverage towards that TE. That leaves better matchups for the likes of Nelson and Cobb (and Jennings, Driver, and Jones before that).

McCarthy has also said he doesn't pay attention to carries but YPC, also that sometimes just getting carries makes a difference more than YPC indicates, and that Allen Barbre looked great at tackle so your mileage may vary.

But in this specific case, I do not think he said what you said. McCarthy said he was a matchup problem. You said he changes how teams cover us. I say that he dictates less LB coverage and more DB coverage, which means more nickel and dime but no coverage changes. I have yet to see anyone roll coverage to or over him. And that the routes he is running don't help the other receivers like a deep middle threat would.

Finley is not pulling a safety from the middle of the field and leaving teams in Cover 1. Finley has played many games during the great Cover 2 Man crisis and hasn't yet broken teams of playing it. He does not make that difference anymore.

Like everything else with him, he should be doing it, but he isn't. And I was a true believer. Thought he would mature (and I think he has). Thought the drops would sort themselves out (he was better with it at the end of 2012 and most of 2013). Injury is tough because no one can tough out an ACL quickly.

But after that injury and even the year after the year of rehab, he no longer plays the same game.

[pbmax]

Serious question:

Brandon claimed Finley is a Top 8 TE when healthy. Harv thinks average TEs can be covered by a LB.

Where does Finley rank overall? Here are the Top 40 for the last two years according to Pro Football References' Approximate Value. This says nothing about their speed or athleticism, but focuses on their numbers compared to others in the League. Are there eight better than Jermichael? Are there 14 who don't see much linebacker coverage?

EDIT: I changed the filter to last 2 years and still active at TE. The first list, for 5 years, had a lot of old players on it and most of the good young TEs were at the bottom, at or below 40.

Here is the link if you think a different sample would be better: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...=Y#stats::none

                                                    Game  Game Misc Misc Misc Misc
Rk                  Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
1            Alfred Morris 2012 2013 6-173 WAS NFL    32    32    2    1    0   20
2             Jimmy Graham 2012 2013  3-95 NOR NFL    31    20    2    1    1   19
3            Tony Gonzalez 2012 2013  1-13 ATL NFL    32    32    2    2    1   17
4             Jason Witten 2012 2013  3-69 DAL NFL    32    32    2    2    0   16
5           William Beatty 2012 2013  2-60 NYG NFL    32    31    2    0    0   15
6               Greg Olsen 2012 2013  1-31 CAR NFL    32    32    2    0    0   15
7        Martellus Bennett 2012 2013  2-61 TOT NFL    32    31    2    0    0   14
8             Vernon Davis 2012 2013   1-6 SFO NFL    31    31    2    1    0   14
9              Riley Reiff 2012 2013  1-23 DET NFL    32    24    2    0    0   14
10          Rob Gronkowski 2012 2013  2-42 NWE NFL    18    17    2    1    0   13
11            Donnie Avery 2012 2013  2-33 TOT NFL    32    29    2    0    0   12
12           Charles Brown 2012 2013  2-64 NOR NFL    26    17    2    0    0   12
13           Antonio Gates 2012 2013       SDG NFL    31    30    2    0    0   12
14            Heath Miller 2012 2013  1-30 PIT NFL    29    29    2    1    0   12
15        Jermaine Gresham 2012 2013  1-21 CIN NFL    30    29    2    1    0   11
16          Scott Chandler 2012 2013 4-129 BUF NFL    31    20    2    0    0   10
17              Jared Cook 2012 2013  3-89 TOT NFL    29    18    2    0    0   10
18          Kelvin Beachum 2012 2013 7-248 PIT NFL    22    17    2    0    0    9
19             Brent Celek 2012 2013 5-162 PHI NFL    31    29    2    0    0    9
20       Jermichael Finley 2012 2013  3-91 GNB NFL    22    19    2    0    0    9
                                                   Games Games Misc Misc Misc Misc
Rk                  Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
21             Zach Miller 2012 2013  2-38 SEA NFL    30    27    2    0    0    9
22           Brandon Myers 2012 2013 6-202 TOT NFL    32    30    2    0    0    9
23              Mike Adams 2012 2013  2-56 PIT NFL    25    16    2    0    0    8
24             Jason Avant 2012 2013 4-109 PHI NFL    30    20    2    0    0    8
25          Jordan Cameron 2012 2013 4-102 CLE NFL    29    20    2    1    0    8
26             Gabe Carimi 2012 2013  1-29 TOT NFL    30    17    2    0    0    8
27            Charles Clay 2012 2013 6-174 MIA NFL    30    24    2    0    0    8
28            Coby Fleener 2012 2013  2-34 CLT NFL    28    22    2    0    0    8
29            Kyle Rudolph 2012 2013  2-43 MIN NFL    24    24    2    1    0    8
30           Julius Thomas 2012 2013 4-129 DEN NFL    18    14    2    1    0    8
31          Delanie Walker 2012 2013 6-175 TOT NFL    31    15    2    0    0    8
32            Owen Daniels 2012 2013  4-98 HTX NFL    20    19    2    1    0    7
33         Jeff Linkenbach 2012 2013       CLT NFL    28    13    2    0    0    7
34       Brandon Pettigrew 2012 2013  1-20 DET NFL    28    25    2    0    0    7
35            Dennis Pitta 2012 2013 4-114 RAV NFL    20     6    2    0    0    7
36       Donald Stephenson 2012 2013  3-74 KAN NFL    32    14    2    0    0    7
37             Jacob Tamme 2012 2013 4-127 DEN NFL    32     9    2    0    0    7
38       Terrance Williams 2013 2013  3-74 DAL NFL    16     8    1    0    0    7
39            Dallas Clark 2012 2013  1-24 TOT NFL    28     7    2    0    0    6
40             Rob Housler 2012 2013       CRD NFL    28    19    2    0    0    6

[mraynrand]

I think 2013 was a pivotal year for him. Defenses seemed to realize he was not the threat he looked like he might become. Sure, he had an impressive play from time to time; but he had as many excruciating drops.

He had only one impressive play?

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

[Brandon494]

Well, you have succeeded in showing 2 of his three touchdowns and 3 of his 25 catches.

But where are the coverage changes? Each of those throws was within 5 yards of the LOS. If he was playing for Chip Kelly, they might design an offense for him on these routes. Or if he played for Kyle Shanahan, that would be the offense.

The Browns TD has a LB on him (in zone I think). The CB is with Boykin and a fake of a slant by Boykin keeps the safety deep. So in that video, Finley is an outlet receiver who benefits from D coordinators fear of Boykin. Now that is a game changer.

But he isn't helping altering the coverage as an outlet receiver. In fact, contrary to McCarthy's assertion, I bet each of the D coordinators would be happy to give up a reception to Rodgers and Co at that distance multiple times a game.

I think the whole Finley/Rodgers thing was over these routes. He didn't want to head deep into the teeth of cover 2 and wanted something short he could break. Its works for him here. I am not sure it works for the offense as a whole.

Did you not see what I highlighted in bold? You said he was a shell of himself which is not true.

[mraynrand]

PBmax: that ranking seems to be right on the money. I'd probably take Fin over Celek and Olsen, but maybe not Miller. Miller too suffered from unavailability.

[mraynrand]

Did you not see what I highlighted in bold? You said he was a shell of himself which is not true.

He might be NOW, but he sure as hell wasn't against Cleveland, right up to the injury.

[pbmax]

He had only one impressive play?

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

Holy crap, good find. Is this new or do my Google skills need to be refined?

[Brandon494]

As pbmax pointed out, the Finley of 2011 - 2013 was nothing like the Finley we saw at the end of 2009 and the start of 2010. I think 2013 was a pivotal year for him. Defenses seemed to realize he was not the threat he looked like he might become. Sure, he had an impressive play from time to time; but he had as many excruciating drops. He was not reliable, and it was clear at times that Rodgers did not always have faith in him in crucial situations. In short, I don't think he impacted what defenses would do all that much anymore.

He dropped one pass last season...

[mraynrand]

Holy crap, good find. Is this new or do my Google skills need to be refined?

I checked the previous years and it seemed to be right.

[mraynrand]

Tom Crabtree dropped 14% of his passes

[pbmax]

Did you not see what I highlighted in bold? You said he was a shell of himself which is not true.

That is not the Finley I remember. It is impressive, none-the-less, but not what this offense needs in my opinion.

I remember a TE who could sky above coverage to snag a contested ball. His catch radius was huge. And he went deep with aplomb and fearlessness. He was never quite the seam breaker that Chmura (Chmura would get blasted on those routes sometimes aided by a Favre cannon shot right into a defender) or Keith Jackson were. But he regularly threatened the deep middle of the field, enough that you didn't let him simply run past a LB while you simultaneously left the safety deep.

Now, teams simply put a coverage DB on him and leave the safeties deep to defense Nelson and Jones. No idea what happens this year without Jones.

Oddly, if there was a season he needs to be here, this year might be it. But that is due to attrition elsewhere.