Is Aaron Rodgers more of the problem than we might think?

[RashanGary]

45/55 is still balance. PB, you focus so much on details, you often miss the general point. Try balance in your thinking patterns.

[mraynrand]

Try balance in your thinking patterns.

lol

You didn't get any sleep, did you?

[RashanGary]

If you were to take 12 minutes of time clock away in a drive, that is 20% of the total time in a game. A team, that on average scores 30 points per game now has lost 20% of time, therefor 20% of their likely point total. Now 24 points is more likely. And you just scored 7, so you need just 17 more compared to their 24. If you were to do that a second time in the game, now that 30 point offense is more likely to score 18. And you scored another 7. So now you have 14 against a team likely to score 18. The remaining 60% of the game require just 5 points against their estimated 18.


Two long touchdown producing drives makes winning very likely.

And we haven’t even talked about turnovers yet. Ypa efficiency loses even more of its all telling forecasting power at this point.

And then 3rd down percentage, redzone effectiveness, penalties.....

And now let’s go even deeper. Let’s say a balanced team that can run and pass effectively makes it and three other teams that are super efficient passing teams. But a buzz saw of a pass rushing team like the NY Giants of a few years ago is in too. Now who’s likely to get mowed down in the playoff gauntlet? The balanced team that invested in its run game or the predictable pass happy team?

We can go on and on......

And on and on

And on

And efficiency still won’t equate to championships. Too many variables. Hence you’re constant critique of people who value the run game, as much as you keep finding some misphrased detail to call “stupid” .... maybe you’re the stupid one for over obsessing about stats.

[RashanGary]

people can observe and predictably expect that the sun will stay out longer in the month of June than the month of January without ever taking a clock and making a stat out of it. Reality is reality whether a stat is there to show it or not.

I’ve come up with mathematical ways to show how a couple long, time eating, touchdown producing drives makes winning more likely. But even in absence of the math, the reality still exists.

Having the ability to run or pass effectively creates adaptability, something needed to get through the various types of good defenses in the playoffs.

The reliance on pff stats isn’t necessarily smart. The part that’s most surprising is how smug a person can be, calling people stupid while exposing themselves as incapable of seeing practical realities while only being able to read stats. Any idiot with a pathetic United States 7th grade education can regurgitate stats.

[mraynrand]

The reliance on pff stats isn’t necessarily smart. The part that’s most surprising is how smug a person can be, calling people stupid while exposing themselves as incapable of seeing practical realities while only being able to read stats. Any idiot with a pathetic United States 7th grade education can regurgitate stats.

easy, hoss. There's merit in both perspectives.

[bobblehead]

1. Running the ball more makes an offense less efficient, generally.
2. Packers running 32.5% last year was an outlier because of injuries and being behind for more often than previously.
3. 50/50 is a dumb number to apply to any game. Numerical balance is NOT the goal. Or shouldn't be.
4. Did M4 actually say his target is 50/50? If he did, he will be out of a job within 2 years if he actually tries to implement it.

1) Not true. It totally depends on several factors....generally and specifically
2) Agree. 35% is fine if its the RIGHT 35%.
3) Correct. The goal is a balance that keeps the D off guard. If a D is selling out to stop the run then I have no problem with 100% pass.
4) I don't think M4 has a set number. He seems to understand the game in its entirety which means you can't put static numbers on things. Run effectively when its given. Keep the other teams O on the sidelines and out of sync. Wear down the other D so they can't stop you when game is on the line in the 4th.

[bobblehead]

Lets talk TE. Anyone notice the play to Tonyan over the middle splitting the seam. That play hasn't existed in GB in years. I was a WR pull the safety and *a back in a route* pulling the LB. Tonyan split the seam for a big gain. Since I now Know its in the playbook we will see if its Rodgers or M3 at fault for it not existing for years.

[mraynrand]

Since I now Know its in the playbook we will see if its Rodgers or M3 at fault for it not existing for years.

how will you know?

[RashanGary]

There are more scenarios than we can possibly list. I try to be open to the uniqueness of each situation so as not to be constantly surprised that things aren’t fitting into the box I tried to force them in.

Maybe a part of the reason Aikman won 3 Super Bowls was because he was selfless enough to hand the ball off a bunch instead of needing to rack up stupid ass stats. The longer drives may have rested his defenses and made them better too.

[mraynrand]

Maybe a part of the reason Aikman won 3 Super Bowls was because he was selfless enough to hand the ball off a bunch instead of needing to rack up stupid ass stats. The longer drives rested his defenses and made them better too.

Sure, but he handed off because they had a monster line and a collection of receivers/TEs that prevented teams from loading the box. And it wasn't because the guy running the show didn't like passing (Ernie Zampese*, the OC was with Air Coryell in SD and with Rams offenses that lit up the sky). The easiest way to have great balance is if you have the horses to run and pass. Last time the Packers had that was 2014, when they were 6th passing and 14th running.


*It is a little known fact that Zampese smoked 12 packs of cigarettes a day. Remarkably, he is still alive today at 84, even though he has to breath pure oxygen.

[RashanGary]

Sure, but he handed off because they had a monster line and a collection of receivers/TEs that prevented teams from loading the box. And it wasn't because the guy running the show didn't like passing (Ernie Zampese*, the OC was with Air Coryell in SD and with Rams offenses that lit up the sky). The easiest way to have great balance is if you have the horses to run and pass. Last time the Packers had that was 2014, when they were 6th passing and 14th running.


*It is a little known fact that Zampese smoked 12 packs of cigarettes a day. Remarkably, he is still alive today at 84, even though he has to breath pure oxygen.

But the argument is that running takes away from efficiency and makes winning less likely.

[mraynrand]

But the argument is that running takes away from efficiency and makes winning less likely.

Yes, that's the argument. But let's stay with your approach where we throw out exact statistic and just talk generalities and common sense. If you have a killer passing game, and a marginal run game, an emphasis on the run game would surely reduce your efficiency. If you totally ignore the run game, you might then force the defense into permanent dime which might also reduce your efficiency, right? So where you set that needle on run/pass percentage depends on relative strengths, taking advantage of what the defense gives you/keeping the defense 'honest.' Packers would be foolish to force the run game if they don't have the horses to run/block effectively. But if they did, they'd be foolish to ignore it, because they could force the defense out of dime and nickel and then eviscerate them in the passing game.


Some real talent lies in the coaching staff and the QB knowing where that sweet spot is and then making the right play call for the defense.

I realize this is kinda boilerplate/football 101.

[RashanGary]

2010 packers 42% run
2011 giants 40% run
2012 ravens 43% run
2013 Seattle 52% run
2014 patriots 41% run
2015 Broncos 41% run
2016 Patriots 46% run
2017 Eagles 46% run
2018 Patriots 46% run

The average super bowl winner over the last 9 years is 44% run with 56% pass. The lowest run percentage is 40% with the highest 52%. These are balanced teams with a slight lean to passing. 32% rushing is just ridiculous. I don’t feel like digging through but I’ll bet no team has ever won a Sb and come within even 5% of that idiotic number. SB winning teams are in the realm of balance because it slows pass rush down, rests defenses and engages the offensive line in physical aggression.

A big part of the reason the Packer suck ass at running the ball is ARs insistence on slow paced line of scrimmage dilly dallying. Him and Manning are the dilly dally statistical GOATs but they don’t win superbowls in their big stat years. Wonder why?

Brady wasn’t winning SBs in his huge stat years either.

[mraynrand]

Brady wasn’t winning SBs in his huge stat years either.

He faced the same buzzsaw defense the Packers did in 2007/11 - that Giant's front four that could generate tons of pressure and stop the running game with mostly their front four.

[pbmax]

Maybe focus more on winning football game than statistics? Rams, Saints and Patriots all ran the ball 45% of the time last year. Three of the top 4 teams. Maybe your pff articles aren’t really making you smarter? Maybe some good old fashion common sense applies sometimes?

They were also winning.

Not to mention 45% =! 50%