Is Aaron Rodgers even good anymore?

[MadScientist]

With all the, totally justified, bitching about the offensive scheme and play calling, are we just glossing over the quality of play of Rodgers. Rodgers' numbers are way off from his norms, and looking at individual plays, his accuracy has been terrible. Nobody is hit in stride anymore. even short passes require receivers to reach for the passes. Deep balls require significant adjustments by receiver to get to the ball.

Looking at the tape, it looks like Rodgers' mechanics are all wrong. Lets look at a few similar type throws. Here's the deep TD to Tonyan last night:
https://twitter.com/thecheckdown/sta...209729/video/1

Here is the Detroit hail mary:

and one in Arizona:

The footwork is really bad now. That's probably because his knee is still hurting him badly. It's harder to clearly identify, but it also looks like his throwing motion is different as well. The follow-through is not there. On some of the shorter passes in the game, it looked like he was unnecessarily side-arming the throws.

The knee problem will probably be improved during the off season. The greater concern is if the arm motion changes are not because of the knee, but due to lingering effects of the collar bone injury which probably won't get any better.

The Packers may be paying top dollar to a middle of the road QB, for the next 3 years.

[mraynrand]

Definitely truth to declining skills. He was doubly injured, played though a knee sprain that would have resulted in missed games for most QBs. How could he not b compromised? He is in decline. How severe is anyone's guess. Oh, he is also watching the pass rush now - both because of play-calling and probably because of the vagaries of age.

You know what helps older QBs? Play-action. You know what hurts older QBs? A Fran Tarkenton offense. Choose wisely.

[call_me_ishmael]

I have the same questions and concerns. We'll know more if and when they run an offense that is predicated on short passing routes and moving the sticks. Timing, timing, timing. How often do you see Brady throw 40 yards down the field? I am genuinely curious as I don't know. My guess is the number is lower than you'd think.

[mraynrand]

How often do you see Brady throw 40 yards down the field?

Maybe a better question is how long on average does Brady hold the ball before looking downfield. Or Brees. And do they allow a defense to tee off on those two QBs by employing an unbalanced attack.

[Teamcheez1]

Rodgers still has tremendous skills. Either MM is not tailoring the offense to take advantage of his play, or Rodgers is not playing within the system. I would say a little bit of both.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

2 1sts, 2 2nds and Carr for the Great Arm of Butte.

Gruden loves to acquire aging vets of NFL wars. Don’t be surprised to see the German Shepherd accept the trade.

[MadScientist]

2 1sts, 2 2nds and Carr for the Great Arm of Butte.

Gruden loves to acquire aging vets of NFL wars. Don’t be surprised to see the German Shepherd accept the trade.

That would lead to a $60M cap hit next year.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...-rodgers-3745/
They could wait another year (still brutal 30M cap hit), but Gru will probably be shit-canned by then.

[beveaux1]

[QUOTE=beveaux1;993499]There are lots of reasons for his significantly lower completion percentage...But I believe the top reason for Rodgers' problems are the losses of Nelson, Allison, and Cobb for significant amounts of time this year. Rodgers expects receivers to be in particular places, to move towards him, away from him, to the right or left based on game conditions and it takes experience to know these spots. The only receiver that does is Adams and he's caught 8 TD passes and many first down catches. Rodgers will not throw interceptions, so he throws a pass that no one can catch.

Watching this game, this strongly appears to be the case. We know that Rodgers dislikes checkdowns, but after passes were incomplete to Scantling and St. Brown in the 2nd half. Passes that he showed anger or made gestures showing where he expected the receiver to go, he did not target those receivers much at all. In fact, he appeared to be targeting only Adams. He gave Adams 7 targets in the 2nd half, 5 completions. Scantling had 2 targets, 1 completion. St. Brown had 2 targets, 1 completion. In both of these receivers' cases the completion came before the incompletion in a single drive and they were not targeted again for the rest of the game. Jones had three targets in the 2nd half with no success at all. In each of these checkdowns, it appeared that Rodgers could have had success with the play had he thrown it sooner in the progression.


I don't buy that he wants to run MM out of town, but I do believe that he doesn't trust his #2 and #3 wideouts. This makes for a very difficult time sustaining long drives if there is only one receiver that he truly trusts.


I'll be interested to see what happens when Cobb can play. His game has always been getting open when Rodgers scrambles since he doesn't have the moves or speed to beat many DBs.

[gbgary]

he's just good now...and over paid...and uncoachable. the chance to trade was this last off-season. at the very least they should have waited to see how he was before extending him. now all of that is too late. he trending down with a horrible cap number. and think people cuss cobb's salary. i told you so. smh

[Anti-Polar Bear]

That would lead to a $60M cap hit next year.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...-rodgers-3745/
They could wait another year (still brutal 30M cap hit), but Gru will probably be shit-canned by then.

As a wise man once said, the cap can always be cooked.

For the record, I do not advocate trading the Great Arm of Butte. But Favre single-handily turned around a moribund Packer franchise, and in the end, he still got shipped off to Siberia. Anything is possible.

Btw, Gruden has a decade long contract. He’ll be in Vegas for a while.

[pbmax]

Did anyone see the first half?

He is not in a general decline except for aging. Injuries mean he is not as mobile as he once was which is costing him sacks as he does not seem to have adapted yet. Gets caught a lot from behind.

He doesn't trust the limited offense to get him first downs and so he is taking ill advised shots deep.

His footwork and arm mechanics are poor now, but I expect that is fixable with a better pass rush and health.

What I don't know is if a completely new offense will be accepted readily. I expect it would, I don't think he likes being in this position, but cannot be sure.

During the week, its 95% McCarthy's problem. They share the problem 50/50 during the game.

[beveaux1]

Did anyone see the first half?

He is not in a general decline except for aging. Injuries mean he is not as mobile as he once was which is costing him sacks as he does not seem to have adapted yet. Gets caught a lot from behind.

He doesn't trust the limited offense to get him first downs and so he is taking ill advised shots deep.

His footwork and arm mechanics are poor now, but I expect that is fixable with a better pass rush and health.

What I don't know is if a completely new offense will be accepted readily. I expect it would, I don't think he likes being in this position, but cannot be sure.

During the week, its 95% McCarthy's problem. They share the problem 50/50 during the game.

This is true. He still looks like he can make the throws, what the team has had trouble doing is sustaining drives and coming out with touchdowns.

For only the 2nd time in his career (the first being 2015), I'm not confident that Rodgers and his offense can score in a must-score situation.

I don't believe that MM has completely forgotten how to put together an offensive game plan, I also don't believe that Rodgers has somehow lost his ability to make the throws he needs to make.

Like 2015, he lost go-to receivers and this year is struggling to sustain drives with talented, athletic, but inexperienced receivers. He relies on the one he trusts and sometimes that one is covered and he tries to run, he throws it away, or he gets sacked.

The first solution is to force throws to the rookies, but he won't do that for fear of interceptions. The 2nd solution is to get Cobb back which means he has two receivers he trusts. No other options this year with Allison on IR.

Our biggest hope is that the young receivers prove themselves to Rodgers by the end of the year.

[texaspackerbacker]

It's all about the pathetic offensive line. Damn near every snap, Rodgers is rushed to more or less of a degree, and teams do that with just 4 or even 3 pass rushers the great majority of the time, allowing them to load up in coverage on the back end. And Rodgers still plays well enough to win almost every game.

In the Seattle game, the line wasn't even able to open holes for Aaron Jones - actually, it was more about deception/misdirection even in the Miami game.

[mraynrand]

Seattle doesn’t even play the run. They just go
full speed upfield. They know the Packers will stick to form. And even if they give one up odds are Stubby/Rodgers can’t help but revert to form. Odds are always in their favor.

[red]

the national rose colored glasses have come off

will cain just had a guy on his show about an hour ago (already forgot the guys name), but he's an nfl analyst and former DB

they were talking about how rodgers seems to only be concerned about making "oh wow" plays, highlight reel plays. he seems to have almost no use for a regular offense, he only wants the big play that keeps people talking.

they also mentioned something i have been screaming about for years. he's making his own life and the o-lines life way more difficult then it needs to be by scrambling around, even when there is no need to do that. many times you'll see a pocket that is just fine, but he'll bring the ball down and move out of the pocket, completely fucking everything up. they think this is also an example of him wanting to make an "oh wow" play, instead of just standing in the pocket and making an easy pass for 5 or 6 yards

i've never listened to these 2 guys before, but its refreshing to hear them, you all, and other all around the media finally bringing up things that i've felt have been obvious for years, but have been told over and over that i'm just nuts or being negative

the writing has been on the wall for a long time, and you people by putting the blinders on for so long have allowed it to continue. now that a mob has finally formed people are willing to see the truth and might finally force something to happen