Is Aaron Rodgers even good anymore?

[mraynrand]

Bill Bardwell @billbarnwell
Again: if a quarterback played like Aaron Rodgers did last night over an entire season, he would set the single-season yards per attempt record, the single-season passer rating record, and have the third-most passing yards in league history. Aaron Rodgers’s “problem” is a dream

Interesting. What was his passer rating in the second half and on third downs?

I forget how the rating is computed. Does a QB get rated lower for incompletions on third down or for taking sacks?

[Joemailman]

Interesting. What was his passer rating in the second half and on third downs?

I forget how the rating is computed. Does a QB get rated lower for incompletions on third down or for taking sacks?

Not with passer rating. I believe Passer rating is basically average yards per pass attempt, percent of passes that are TD's and percentage of passes that are INT's.

[pbmax]

And average 24 points a game. Middle of the Pack in today's NFL. Rodgers has a fairly high passer rating this year because he doesn't throw interceptions. It is the only area in which he has been truly elite.

Is that the QB or the offense?

Going by the first half, he average 42 points per game.

[pbmax]

Interesting. What was his passer rating in the second half and on third downs?

I forget how the rating is computed. Does a QB get rated lower for incompletions on third down or for taking sacks?

You want ESPN QBR or Football Outsiders DVOA for context specific ratings.

[pbmax]

The point isn't that this is the best Aaron Rodgers, but that he is still in there somewhere amongst a very problematic offense. And he is hurting himself and the offense at times fighting against it.

[mraynrand]

You want ESPN QBR or Football Outsiders DVOA for context specific ratings.

What's your link for this stuff? Do you just query it at pro-football-ref?

No thanks on the ESPER QBR crap.

[pbmax]

What's your link for this stuff? Do you just query it at pro-football-ref?

No thanks on the ESPER QBR crap.

Actually, QBR got rid of the problematic "clutch" factor a while back. Its more rigorous these days.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

[mraynrand]

The point isn't that this is the best Aaron Rodgers, but that he is still in there somewhere amongst a very problematic offense. And he is hurting himself and the offense at times fighting against it.

wait, what? Fighting against the problematic offense? Or executing the problematic offense inefficiently? Everyone can see that at least one major problem is looking for the big shot 'extend offense' (EO) all the time when alternatives might be easier - especially since he's obviously physically limited by the knee and possibly the shoulder. Sure, he's started at such a high level that knocking him down a peg still makes him better than all but maybe 5 QBs, but running the EO doesn't work when he's not otherworldly. So which is it - that there are either few/no other options or that they aren't consistently being used? And who is responsible?

[mraynrand]

Actually, QBR got rid of the problematic "clutch" factor a while back. Its more rigorous these days.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Do I need premium access to figure out a rating in a specific quarter? Sorry, I gotta run to work; not trying to make you do work for me, but is there an easy way to get that info. I'd pay some money for it, but not a lot.

[Pugger]

Did anyone see the first half?

He is not in a general decline except for aging. Injuries mean he is not as mobile as he once was which is costing him sacks as he does not seem to have adapted yet. Gets caught a lot from behind.

He doesn't trust the limited offense to get him first downs and so he is taking ill advised shots deep.

His footwork and arm mechanics are poor now, but I expect that is fixable with a better pass rush and health.

What I don't know is if a completely new offense will be accepted readily. I expect it would, I don't think he likes being in this position, but cannot be sure.

During the week, its 95% McCarthy's problem. They share the problem 50/50 during the game.

He looked like his old self in the first half. You have to wonder what happened. I suspect Carroll made defensive adjustments and Mac did not. He abandoned the run AGAIN because the seachickens stopped it a couple of times.

I'm sure AR isn't as mobile as he once was. His line is giving him time most of the time but he doesn't seem to trust his young wide outs. He won't take checkdowns either. AR is too in love with deep shots when it isn't necessary. They make it all too damn difficult. I'm surprised Stubby nor his QB coach is addressing this issue.

Rodgers' footwork have never been all that great.

I agree, we don't need a new offense but perhaps a new perspective on this offense might breathe some life into it.

Stubby has never been known as a great game manager. His time management sucks and is stubborn to a fault.

[Pugger]

its just shocking to see the same shit run over and over again on third and short and see the same failed results every single time

Yes, isn't the definition of insanity doing the same damn things over and over again and expecting a different result?

[pbmax]

wait, what? Fighting against the problematic offense? Or executing the problematic offense inefficiently? Everyone can see that at least one major problem is looking for the big shot 'extend offense' (EO) all the time when alternatives might be easier - especially since he's obviously physically limited by the knee and possibly the shoulder. Sure, he's started at such a high level that knocking him down a peg still makes him better than all but maybe 5 QBs, but running the EO doesn't work when he's not otherworldly. So which is it - that there are either few/no other options or that they aren't consistently being used? And who is responsible?

I think both are responsible. I have no idea whether touchdown to check down was actually McCarthy or Rodgers. We have heard that for a long time, so I lean M3, but impossible to know if its design (M3) or explanation (AR).

But this offense has never really been a 12 play TD drive offense like it was variously under Holmgren and Sherman. So I expect its at least partially by design.

Now Rodgers knows this and takes his shot willingly. But I think at least part of the driving factor is the inability of this offense to put together multi-play drives with short throws.

You have seen McCarthy's short play offense. Toss sweep, WR screen and bubble screen. The last two at the discretion of Rodgers. McCarthy also abandons the run for long stretches. He doesn't call slants and has said Rodgers prefers to throw outside compared to Favre who liked the middle.

But when you have run an offense for 12 years and been looking deep the entire time, its hard to unlearn that tendency. So I am not surprised that Jones gets overlooked in the flat on a leak out route. But the history is also that short throws have not worked for this offense to sustain drives. It didn't work for Hundley or the rest.

But you take your poorly designed short throwing game, mix in an indifferent attitude to the run and the middle of the field, the result you get is how Rodgers is playing now.

[pbmax]

Do I need premium access to figure out a rating in a specific quarter? Sorry, I gotta run to work; not trying to make you do work for me, but is there an easy way to get that info. I'd pay some money for it, but not a lot.

They will give you the entire database for the year I believe for the price of a subscription.

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They also have charting data, but I think you want DVOA. However, I am not certain you get splits by quarter or down. I would send them a question.

[pbmax]

There is a LOT of talk about Rodgers and Brady on the downside of careers this year. Brady has been noticeably flat statistically for some time now, but its become more apparent this year, he's still good but rarely great.

Rodgers has struggled overall since 2012. His average yards per attempt are way down. But I think this is very offense and design specific. When teams figured out how to cover the TE-less offense and then the no huddle, McCarthy went to shorter and shorter throws (all those interminable WR screens).

That plus less success downfield has torpedoed his average per attempt. But I don't see this as his decline. I think this offense has melted around him. Less talent hurts, but it especially hurts if your design depends on winning a lot of 1 on 1 matchups.

McCarthy has adjusted this year, but his QB needs more.

[red]

Yes, isn't the definition of insanity doing the same damn things over and over again and expecting a different result?

That’s what Einstein said