What's the roster makeover going to look like, who stays/goes??

[mraynrand]

early on in his tenure, it was easier to go BPA (except for the Rodgers pick)

Seems to me Rodgers was a BPA pick, all the way.

[beveaux1]

The beauty of having such a talent shortage is that you're more likely to choose the BPA when you draft, because you have so many needs your board's most talented player is more likely to intersect with one of those needs. When you have a more evenly talented roster, it's hard to go strictly BPA - it'd be hard to draft another all-pro at a position where you've already got a couple when you think you might be one outside linebacker or cornerback away from a Super Bowl. I think Ted succumbed to this - early on in his tenure, it was easier to go BPA (except for the Rodgers pick), and Ted had some wonderful drafts. But as the talent level went up, he started shooting for that one player to get them over the hump - that one defensive lineman or outside linebacker (Jerel Worthy, Datone Jones) or corner (Randall), that one missing piece. Thompson didn't bomb everything, as so many here seem to think - thanksted for Kenny Clark, maybe Kevin King, Blake Martinez (Wist is wrong on this guy, sorry), and Aaron Jones. But I do think he started trying to make his draft boards match his needs more and more as time went on.

It's a tough business. The outrage in 2005 when Thompsons drafted a QB whose stock had dropped like a rock when they already had a HOF quarterback and were only a player or two away from a SB was intense and powerful. If only he'd been able to keep drafting that way.

Ted was a very good GM for around 10 years with good drafts and a healthy relationship with MM and success on the field. His last 3 or 4 drafts were not good and we did not use free agency to supplement the poor drafts. Overall, he was deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but a change was needed when he stepped down.

The same can be said for MM. He was highly successful for about 10 years and navigated a difficult transition from Favre to Rodgers. He is deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but again, a change was needed. Let’s hope that Murphy can be successful in navigating that change.

[pbmax]

I think Ted succumbed [edit: subscribed?] to this - early on in his tenure, it was easier to go BPA (except for the Rodgers pick), and Ted had some wonderful drafts. But as the talent level went up, he started shooting for that one player to get them over the hump - that one defensive lineman or outside linebacker (Jerel Worthy, Datone Jones) or corner (Randall), that one missing piece. Thompson didn't bomb everything, as so many here seem to think - thanksted for Kenny Clark, maybe Kevin King, Blake Martinez (Wist is wrong on this guy, sorry), and Aaron Jones. But I do think he started trying to make his draft boards match his needs more and more as time went on.

It's a tough business. The outrage in 2005 when Thompsons drafted a QB whose stock had dropped like a rock when they already had a HOF quarterback and were only a player or two away from a SB was intense and powerful. If only he'd been able to keep drafting that way.

The irony of Ted is that, for him, he was in win now mode since the 2012 draft. Maybe a reach on Sherrod in the 1st in 2011. He was just not normally going to move into FA unless he got all the bells and whistles (position need, position rarity, no compensation pick lost, good deal on great or formerly great player).

Everyone wanted him all in. And he was, for Ted. but when the drafts stopped happening, he was dead in the water.

[pbmax]

I wonder what the cap hit would be if they cut Perry. Guy can play the run well, but for the money they're paying him, he needs to get to the QB more than five or six times a season. Oh, and stay on the field. I think he's just never going to be able to be healthy, but I think you don't have much else, so maybe you keep him to see if maybe, just maybe, you can squeeze one semi-healthy year out of him while you re-tool?

http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/37824/nick-perrys-contract-with-packers-not-as-monstrous-as-it-seems

If Demovsky is right about the roster bonus not being guaranteed and being due the third of fifth day of the new League year, Packers could survive the hit by spread it out over two years.

To get out of 2019 they take an $11,100,000 cap hit with a cap savings of $14,700,000. But they are not going to want to pay that cash, which reduces the cap savings to $11,000,000. Still doable, even more doable if they designate him June 1 cut and spread the dead cap money out over two years.

If he survives 2019, cutting him in 2020 is easy: POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 3 YR, $38,775,000; $7,400,000 DEAD CAP which could be easily absorbed by the 2020 cap savings.

[pbmax]

OK, here we go with the Quinquennial Reevaluation of Mason Crosby

Baseline team stats for 2018. Boo formatting errors.

Percentage Of Field Goals Made Leaders
                  FIELD GOAL                                                           EXTRA POINTS
RK      TEAM      FGM    FGA    PCT     LNG    1-19    20-29   30-39   40-49   50+     XPM     XPA     PCT
1      Atlanta    20     20     100.0   57     0-0     4-4     2-2     8-8     6-6     28      29      96.6
2      NY Giants  26     27     96.3    57     0-0     7-7     11-11   4-4     4-5     21      21      100
3      New Orlean 23     24     95.8    54     1-1     4-4     7-7     9-10    2-2     44      45      97.8
       San Franci 23     24     95.8    53     0-0     6-6     8-8     7-8     2-2     20      22      90.9
5      Kansas Cit 19     20     95.0    50     0-0     7-7     5-5     6-6     1-2     51      55      92.7
6      Miami      16     17     94.1    50     0-0     5-5     3-3     7-8     1-1     26      27      96.3
7      NY Jets    28     30     93.3    56     0-0     2-2     12-13   8-8     6-7     21      22      95.5
8      Baltimore  25     27     92.6    56     0-0     8-8     5-5     8-10    4-4     28      29      96.6
9      Jacksonvil 19     21     90.5    57     0-0     4-4     8-8     3-4     4-5     18      19      94.7
10     Buffalo    17     19     89.5    54     0-0     2-2     5-5     6-6     4-6     15      16      93.8
11     Detroit    23     26     88.5    54     0-0     8-8     11-11   1-2     3-5     23      23      100
12     Tennessee  21     24     87.5    54     0-0     4-5     10-10   4-5     3-4     20      21      95.2
       Carolina   14     16     87.5    63     0-0     3-3     4-5     4-4     3-4     30      33      90.9
14     Washingto  20     23     87.0    56     0-0     5-5     5-5     7-9     3-4     23      24      95.8
15     Dallas     24     28     85.7    55     0-0     7-7     6-7     7-9     4-5     23      24      95.8
16     Houston    29     34     85.3    54     1-1     7-7     9-9     9-12    3-5     29      30      96.7
17     New Engla  22     26     84.6    52     0-0     9-9     7-7     4-5     2-5     37      37      100
18     LA Rams    26     31     83.9    56     1-1     9-10    11-11   3-6     2-3     39      41      95.1
19     Philadelp  19     23     82.6    56     0-0     6-6     7-8     5-6     1-3     23      23      100
20     Indianapo  17     21     81.0    54     0-0     6-6     6-7     3-4     2-4     32      34      94.1
21     Denver     16     20     80.0    53     0-0     3-3     6-6     5-5     2-6     30      30      100
       Oakland    20     25     80.0    52     0-0     7-7     3-3     8-11    2-4     20      21      95.2
       Seattle    16     20     80.0    56     0-0     1-1     6-7     6-7     3-5     37      39      94.9
24     Chicago    19     24     79.2    50     0-0     5-5     5-6     8-11    1-2     35      37      94.6
       LA Charge  19     24     79.2    49     0-0     8-8     4-4     7-10    0-2     27      34      79.4
26     Tampa Bay  14     18     77.8    59     0-0     3-3     9-10    1-4     1-1     34      38      89.5
27     Green Bay  22     29     75.9    53     0-0     3-3     9-10    6-10    4-6     27      29      93.1
28     Cleveland  13     18     72.2    51     0-0     4-4     6-6     2-5     1-3     19      23      82.6
29     Cincinnat  10     14     71.4    51     0-0     2-2     4-5     3-3     1-4     34      36      94.4
       Pittsburg  10     14     71.4    50     0-0     3-3     3-3     3-7     1-1     36      41      87.8
31     Arizona    7      10     70.0    44     0-0     2-2     2-2     3-5     0-1     20      20      100
32     Minnesota  17     26     65.4    52     0-0     3-4     9-10    4-10    1-2     26      27      96.3

[mraynrand]

http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-p...us-as-it-seems

If Demovsky is right about the roster bonus not being guaranteed and being due the third of fifth day of the new League year, Packers could survive the hit by spread it out over two years.

To get out of 2019 they take an $11,100,000 cap hit with a cap savings of $14,700,000. But they are not going to want to pay that cash, which reduces the cap savings to $11,000,000. Still doable, even more doable if they designate him June 1 cut and spread the dead cap money out over two years.

If he survives 2019, cutting him in 2020 is easy: POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 3 YR, $38,775,000; $7,400,000 DEAD CAP which could be easily absorbed by the 2020 cap savings.

This is the exciting stuff that attracts me to the sporting world.

[bobblehead]

QB: Aaron "The Coach Killer" Rodgers, Kizer
RB: Jones, Williams, draftee or free agent
WR: Adams, Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown, Moore, Kumerow, draftee free agent
TE: Graham, Tonyan Draftee free agent
OL: Linsley, Bakhtiari, Taylor draftees, free agents

DL: Daniels, Clark, Lowery, Adams, draftee or FA
ILB: Martinez, Burks Draftees, free agents
OLB: Fackrell, Gilbert, Draftees, Free agents
DBs Josh Jones, Jackson, King, Alexander, Draftees, free agents

The defensive backfield was overhauled over the past two years but there is now a significant hole at the safety position. The Packers will also have a hole at outside linebacker with a serious lack of depth and playmakers. Inside linebacker is also very lean. The Packers will have to spend or draft to fix. The Packers are in decent shape along the defensive line. The real hole on this team is on the offensive line. Bulaga has nothing left. His legs are shot. Spriggs has been a complete disappointment and should be cut. The Packers have gotten very little from Taylor and Bell, and McCray. the other issue is Bakthairi, he is never healthy and also has leg problems, constantly. The Packers misses at the offensive line position in the previous drafts are coming back to hunt them.

I can see where you are coming from at WR, but I think another impact guy is needed. Just not convinced that guy is on the roster unless J'mon Moore lives up to his body all of a sudden or MVS gets polished in an offseason. I think St. Brown is near useless. Kumerow may emerge in next weeks, but we'll see on that. I see the position as 1 star, 1 guy that needs a good offseason to hope he becomes an NFL #2, and not much.

[bobblehead]

Ted was a very good GM for around 10 years with good drafts and a healthy relationship with MM and success on the field. His last 3 or 4 drafts were not good and we did not use free agency to supplement the poor drafts. Overall, he was deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but a change was needed when he stepped down.

The same can be said for MM. He was highly successful for about 10 years and navigated a difficult transition from Favre to Rodgers. He is deserving of being in the Packer Hall of Fame, but again, a change was needed. Let’s hope that Murphy can be successful in navigating that change.

2017 King-very good when healthy, AJones stud- JJones and Mt. Adams still may be players---looks decent
2016 Clark-all world, Fackrell starting to look like a pro, Matinez stud, Lowry and Davis good role players---looks decent
2015 Randall starting with an NFL team, Montgomery solid pro making strides in Balt...helped team in need by switching positions, Ryan good role player, Ripkowski contributed many ways, --- bad draft
2014 haha still starting...everyone loved the pick, DAdams stud, Lindsly rock solid, -- bad draft, but 2 really good starters still
2013 Bacteria stud at 2nd most important Offensive position, Tretter starting in NFL, Hyde all pro in NFL, Lacy very good till he couldn't stop joining MM at dinnertime.

Based on the 3 starters rule were these drafts really that bad? Its becoming more obvious the coaches misused Hyde, Randall, and Montgomery. I think they missed by not making Tretter a guard also. I would argue the decline was MM misusing nearly the entire 2013 draft class.

[pbmax]

Crosby (2018) ranks 25th with kicks inside 39 yards (92%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 28th with kicks up to 49 yards (78%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 27th with kicks over 50 yards (33%)

Pretty consistently among the worst in the League. He has a new holder, so it's impossible to tell where the hangup is exactly, but unlike other work we've done, Crosby no longer looks excellent from all but McCarthy's favorite FG distance.

[pbmax]

BTW, with the new scoring explosion. TDs are worth more relative to FGs than ever before. So all those long distance kicks are costing the team points and possibly field position.

[mraynrand]

Crosby (2018) ranks 25th with kicks inside 39 yards (92%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 28th with kicks up to 49 yards (78%)

Crosby (2018) ranks 27th with kicks over 50 yards (33%)

Pretty consistently among the worst in the League. He has a new holder, so it's impossible to tell where the hangup is exactly, but unlike other work we've done, Crosby no longer looks excellent from all but McCarthy's favorite FG distance.

Crosby's line is: 3-3 9-10 6-10 4-6.

4-6 is 33%? As I see it, only one guy has attempted more from 50+ and only three have attempted more from 40-49. Crosby basically hasn't missed from under 40 (Detroit is the 1), and he's 6-10 rather than 8-10 from 40-50 because of Detroit. Like I said, it looks dramatically worse because of Detroit. The 12-13 from inside 39 ranking 25th is misleading of course. There's no need to incorrectly list his percentages and show misleading percentages to make him look worse. The numbers are all there. The honest summary is that he had one horrible day and 2-3 other keys misses. That's a bad year for a placekicker.

[mraynrand]

Crosby no longer looks excellent from all but McCarthy's favorite FG distance.

Take away Detroit and he's right on his career averages.

[Fritz]

Seems to me Rodgers was a BPA pick, all the way.

Yes, Rodgers was a BPA pick. I wrote that bit badly. "Subscribed" would have been the word to use there.

[texaspackerbacker]

He makes too damn much money for the mediocre job he has done. Teams get as good or better performance from street free agents making a small fraction as much. If Jerry Jones can get rid of and replace Dan Bailey, how much more sense does it make to get rid of Crosby?

[mraynrand]

He makes too damn much money for the mediocre job he has done. Teams get as good or better performance from street free agents making a small fraction as much. If Jerry Jones can get rid of and replace Dan Bailey, how much more sense does it make to get rid of Crosby?

just looking down that list of kickers you can see it’s SOP for a kicker to wear out his welcome and move on. Salary, bad stretches, body odor, these are all reason kickers are let go. Maybe it’s Crosby’s time.