The Official other Teams and General NFL News (includes) Management and Coaching moves.

[Patler]

James Campen and Joe Whitt are out as coaches in Cleveland, too. Whitt is going to the Falcons.

Alex Van Pelt is the new OC in Cleveland.

[pbmax]

At least someone did.

I had nothing to offer. Like the last episode of the series.

[KYPack]

The death of GB South. Does Cleveland think they are moving the organization forward? They got a talent upgrade with Dorsey calling the shots. Haslem is beyond a disaster as an owner. I'd imagine the Gute won't be looking at baby Wolf as a personnel man. That would be like bringing his own fox in the hen house. Things looked so rosy for the GB Ex-Pats just a few months ago. Now they are all on the streets.

[bobblehead]

Cranky old man achievement unlocked!

Chris Mortensen
Hall of Fame GM Ron Wolf said the @Browns and others who embrace an analytics-driven model are "out of control."
Wolf: "When something goes wrong, who takes responsibility?
"Their answer: `Well, that's what the data told us.' What a crock. That's what got 'em 1-31."

Ron apparently thinks you plug The M-5 into an outlet and then you are at its mercy.

The NFL has proven time and again that analytics are flawed. The game is and has always been won in the trenches. Going for it on every 4th down is a joke. How the game is playing out has to be factored in. Using data that shows how often this or that happens is flawed. If you want to go for it on 4th and 7 with 8 minutes left in the first half down 14 I want to see that EXACT scenario show me how its the better move. Not 4th and 7 in general. Not expected odds of getting 7 yards in any given situation. Not how often going for it on 4th and 7 against prevent D works. The EXACT situation.

[bobblehead]

I had nothing to offer. Like the last SEASON of the series.

FIFY

[pbmax]

The NFL has proven time and again that analytics are flawed. The game is and has always been won in the trenches. Going for it on every 4th down is a joke. How the game is playing out has to be factored in. Using data that shows how often this or that happens is flawed. If you want to go for it on 4th and 7 with 8 minutes left in the first half down 14 I want to see that EXACT scenario show me how its the better move. Not 4th and 7 in general. Not expected odds of getting 7 yards in any given situation. Not how often going for it on 4th and 7 against prevent D works. The EXACT situation.

Two of the heaviest users of analytics in the League are playing in the Super Bowl.

Analytics on play calls are not usually going to tell you which play is better, but which option gives you the best leverage.

Teams for years over valued punting on 4th and short. Also undervalued 4th and whatever near the goal line. Stranding the opposing offense deep is a good thing.

[hoosier]

Kc 34-20, or 35-10, 36-13

SF 27-20, or 27-16, 29-20

I have insider knowledge that the score WILL NOT be 17-1. The fix is in!

[Zool]

I had nothing to offer. Like the last episode of the series.

[woodbuck27]

Dallas hired it's 'Yes Man' as the new Cowboys Head Coach:

Mike McCarthy

[mraynrand]

Dallas hired it's 'Yes Man' as the new Cowboys Head Coach:

Mike McCarthy

No Man! No Man! No Man!

[mraynrand]

If you want to go for it on 4th and 7 with 8 minutes left in the first half down 14 I want to see that EXACT scenario show me how its the better move.

And you want to know how it works out with your exact players and the oppositions' exact players. Oh wait, that's coaching...

[pbmax]

And you want to know how it works out with your exact players and the oppositions' exact players. Oh wait, that's coaching...

This would be lovely, if it were possible. At best, each coach has 4 or 5 guaranteed play calls against certain defenses. Otherwise they are mostly hopeful and guessing. Remember Stubby couldn't go for 2 at the end of the Cardinals game because he was out of WR. And that is a situation he was prepared for ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Analytics is telling you that the long history of that game situation is (for instance) used too often for FG or punting given actual results. Not every 4th and 3 is from the Patriots or Kansas City offense. Lotta dreck in there too. Its about as average as it could get.

Analytics doesn't pretend what defense will be called or what play will be run. It could comment on run/pass choice or personnel group.

A coach should use what analytics is telling you to prep for more 4th down offense, and then let game situation and the leverage number (or EP or WP) the slide rule is giving you help you decide on the sideline.

And someone else should be suggesting plays so you can decide this. A lot of game situation coaching is bad because coaches are looking for a play rather than thinking critically.

Analytics won't ever call the plays, it will help you know how to prepare and what to be prepared to do.

[mraynrand]

Analytics won't ever call the plays, it will help you know how to prepare and what to be prepared to do.

Lot of extra words to get to this gem. I can't help but think we believe the same thing. Analytics just gives you more info, but ultimately coaching is about knowing your team. Should you go for it on that 4th and one when the other team is tired, or punt and give up a fourth and 26? Will your right tackle slip again on the critical fourth and one, or will he anchor properly? Should you travel out west midweek instead of on Saturday? Can analytics motivate a player who has been snubbed from the pro bowl to play disciplined football, or is coaching needed to channel disappointment into a sublime run-stopping effort?

[pbmax]

Lot of extra words to get to this gem. I can't help but think we believe the same thing. Analytics just gives you more info, but ultimately coaching is about knowing your team. Should you go for it on that 4th and one when the other team is tired, or punt and give up a fourth and 26? Will your right tackle slip again on the critical fourth and one, or will he anchor properly? Should you travel out west midweek instead of on Saturday? Can analytics motivate a player who has been snubbed from the pro bowl to play disciplined football, or is coaching needed to channel disappointment into a sublime run-stopping effort?

Possibly we are.

1. 4th and 1 versus a tired team. Mostly I would be skeptical of these assessments of how tired they are unless dead obvious*. I would rather play the percentages. If you had time to canvas the O line, they are almost always going to vote to run it.

2. Travel I suspect you could get a lot of good information. But then you need to coach the team in that way to prep them for what they must do and how to keep with your schedule. Barry had the Badgers operating on a 26 hour a day with a lot of water in order to travel to Japan to play the Spartans in '93 or whenever it was. And Barry probably just talked with Tom Osbourne or Lou Holtz.

3. Player motivation I have no idea. I suspect that is all coaching and player personnel. Though again I suspect its superficially about motivation but rather more dependent on putting that player in better positions to not betray you.


*And I mean dead obvious to chidden at the top of the bleachers. Not the group of empaths in the Game Day thread who can always detect sloth after one incompletion.

[mraynrand]

For the purposes of this discussion, I have no opinion on the specific answers to those specific situations. My point is only that they are the kind of situations where analytics won't help you much. In other words, analytics is another tool in your kit, but if you lean on it too much, you're gonna get smoked. Hell, an entire analytics regime in Cleveland thought they could ride out three years of accumulating picks before they need to win more than a game. That's the extreme example of course, but you get the idea.