Last Dance Green Bay

[Upnorth]

If Rodgers is still playing for the Packers in 5 years I will be shocked. If he is in the league I think I will be shocked. 43 has been kind to 1 qb in history. That is an exception, not a rule

[Harlan Huckleby]

If Rodgers is still playing for the Packers in 5 years I will be shocked. If he is in the league I think I will be shocked. 43 has been kind to 1 qb in history. That is an exception, not a rule

unless he learns to kick field goals like Blanda.

Since AR is already giving serious consideration to retirement it's unlikely he'll want to start over with a new team.

Although I respect AR's position & sincerity I am on the side of the rich, white males who run the Packers. They didn't fuck up. They undoubtedly knew damn well AR's position on all the vets they shipped out . They just had a different opinion. They were right more often than wrong.

[bobblehead]

A really interesting question for me right now is let's say ARod has an MVP year and Love sucks it up in limited action in preseason. What do the Packers do next year?

Conventional wisdom says they've already agreed to deal him, but what if they're in a really tough spot? Do they try and retain him like they did this year? Do they strong arm him and force him to retire if he won't play, etc? Could be really interesting.

Would the Packers do right by Rodgers and give him an extension in that case so he's not a lame duck?

Look, this was always about Rodgers forcing a long term commitment. He got them to lop off the last year, so now they have to negotiate with him now on a new 4 year deal. Both sides know the score. If Love isn't a stud by end of season they will give Rodgers a total record deal replacing the last year of his contract. $165 million for 4 years with $80 million locked in. Rodgers is part owner of the Bucks. His legacy is Green Bay. He knows it. He never intended to leave. If he has an off year and Love looks awesome is the only way he is dealt. He is pissed about them making a contingency plan and he leveraged his MVP season. If he cared about Jordy he would have said something then. He only cares because this time it was him.

[texaspackerbacker]

unless he learns to kick field goals like Blanda.

Since AR is already giving serious consideration to retirement it's unlikely he'll want to start over with a new team.

Although I respect AR's position & sincerity I am on the side of the rich, white males who run the Packers. They didn't fuck up. They undoubtedly knew damn well AR's position on all the vets they shipped out . They just had a different opinion. They were right more often than wrong.

The way he throws and golfs, I bet he could hahahahaha.

It's a different era now, for QBs anyway - rules keeping them from taking a lot of formerly legal hits, O Linemen allowed to get away with what used to be holding, etc. I've said consistently, and it's damn true, Rodgers is both physically and mentally better than Brady. If Brady can still play as well as he did at 43, Rodgers certainly can play better and longer - barring some freak injury that could hit anybody anytime. On top of that, I think he's ego-driven to outdo Brady.

Bobblehead, I HOPE you are right - about his wanting to negotiate "4 more years" (disclaimer: this is NOT politics hahahaha). More importantly, will the team leadership negotiate that kind of a deal? Or will they prove to be the dumbasses they so far seem to be?

[Harlan Huckleby]

rules keeping them from taking a lot of formerly legal hits, O Linemen allowed to get away with what used to be holding, etc.

That is a legit point. Tom Brady wouldn't survive so long in 1970s.

It's an open question whether a lot of QBs will be playing into their 40s. I doubt it. Late 30s is already later than in old days. (Warren Moon was a REAL freak of nature, come to think of it, he took a lot of punishment.)

[Guiness]

That is a legit point. Tom Brady wouldn't survive so long in 1970s.

It's an open question whether a lot of QBs will be playing into their 40s. I doubt it. Late 30s is already later than in old days. (Warren Moon was a REAL freak of nature, come to think of it, he took a lot of punishment.)

I can't imagine Brady or Rodgers absorbing the punishment and lasting as long as guys like Moon and Favre did, but who knows. I don't think anybody doubts their competitiveness, I just think those two guys in particular had an incredible ability to play through anything.

Having said that, Peyton played until he was 39, Brees 41. Roethlisberger is 39 this year. I think we'll see more franchise guys that can hold onto their skills play into their 40s.

[bobblehead]

The way he throws and golfs, I bet he could hahahahaha.

It's a different era now, for QBs anyway - rules keeping them from taking a lot of formerly legal hits, O Linemen allowed to get away with what used to be holding, etc. I've said consistently, and it's damn true, Rodgers is both physically and mentally better than Brady. If Brady can still play as well as he did at 43, Rodgers certainly can play better and longer - barring some freak injury that could hit anybody anytime. On top of that, I think he's ego-driven to outdo Brady.

Bobblehead, I HOPE you are right - about his wanting to negotiate "4 more years" (disclaimer: this is NOT politics hahahaha). More importantly, will the team leadership negotiate that kind of a deal? Or will they prove to be the dumbasses they so far seem to be?

Dumbasses who hired one of the best young coaches in the game and have produced back to back NFCC games. The 2nd of which would have been a win if someone had ran for the endzone on 2nd or 3rd down.

[jklowan]

Look, this was always about Rodgers forcing a long term commitment. He got them to lop off the last year, so now they have to negotiate with him now on a new 4 year deal. Both sides know the score. If Love isn't a stud by end of season they will give Rodgers a total record deal replacing the last year of his contract. $165 million for 4 years with $80 million locked in. Rodgers is part owner of the Bucks. His legacy is Green Bay. He knows it. He never intended to leave. If he has an off year and Love looks awesome is the only way he is dealt. He is pissed about them making a contingency plan and he leveraged his MVP season. If he cared about Jordy he would have said something then. He only cares because this time it was him.

Don't usually agree with you but this I think is spot on

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Dumbasses who hired one of the best young coaches in the game and have produced back to back NFCC games. The 2nd of which would have been a win if someone had ran for the endzone on 2nd or 3rd down.

You’re babbling about the dumbass frog coach who waved the white flag by sending in the fg unit?

Watch the all-22 film of the 3rd down play prior to LaFleur’s ‘surrender monkey’ decision. 12 was surrounded by pirates. Likely woulda been stopped short at the 3 or 2.

As a shutdown corner in HS who shut down Darren Charles in a game, I learned that in 4th and goal situations inside the 10 where there’s a high probability of the 4th down play being a pass, the offense benefits more by being further back from the endzone. More room for the receivers to operate.

Packers woulda been better off running an obvious passing play from the 6 than the 3. Moot point, as the Frog cowardly surrendered like his French ancestors once did at the Battle of Los Angeles, which, btw, greatly inspired Rage Against the Machine.

[SudsMcBucky]

Look, this was always about Rodgers forcing a long term commitment. He got them to lop off the last year, so now they have to negotiate with him now on a new 4 year deal. Both sides know the score. If Love isn't a stud by end of season they will give Rodgers a total record deal replacing the last year of his contract. $165 million for 4 years with $80 million locked in. Rodgers is part owner of the Bucks. His legacy is Green Bay. He knows it. He never intended to leave. If he has an off year and Love looks awesome is the only way he is dealt. He is pissed about them making a contingency plan and he leveraged his MVP season. If he cared about Jordy he would have said something then. He only cares because this time it was him.

Then why didn't he sign the 5 year contract that would've made him the highest paid player in the league?

[bobblehead]

You talking about the dumbass frog coach who waved the white flag by sending in the fg unit?

Watch the all-22 film of the 3rd down play prior to LaFleur’s ‘surrender monkey’ decision. 12 was surrounded by pirates. Likely woulda been stopped short at the 3 or 2.

As a shutdown corner in HS who shut down Darren Charles in a game, I learned that in 4th and goal situations inside the 10 where there’s a high probability of the 4th down play being a pass, the offense benefits more by being further back from the endzone. More room for the receivers to operate.

Packers woulda been better off running an obvious passing play from the 6 than the 3. Moot point, as the Frog cowardly surrendered like his French ancestors once did at the Battle of Los Angeles, which, btw, greatly inspired Rage Against the Machine.

If the ball had been run to the 3 yard line when Rodgers had the chance do you think we kick the FG on 4th? If he ran to the 3 on 2nd down, maybe he would have avoided the decision altogether on 3rd down.

Kicking the FG in that scenario was correct. Down 8 we had to convert 4th and 9 AND the 2pt just to tie it. THEN we needed a stop.

Kick the FG down 5 we needed a stop. That doesn't change. Now if Rodgers can put it into the endzone with a fresh setup its a win. Don't even need the PAT at that point.

Bottom line is the D didn't get the stop. If we had tied it with a miracle 4th and 9 TD AND gotten the deuce and then didn't get a stop we lose to a FG. We needed a stop either way.

Oh...and fail on 4th like we did on 1st, 2nd and 3rd, game is over unless...you guessed it, we get a stop, a TD AND a 2pt. Then we get to OT.

Game theory says kick the FG. But if its 4th and 3....game theory odds might tilt to going for it.

[Bossman641]

Then why didn't he sign the 5 year contract that would've made him the highest paid player in the league?

My guess is there wasn't enough guaranteed money. They must likely structured it as throwing additional money his way but still having some outs. Rodgers seems to be looking for 3-5 years fully guaranteed.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

If the ball had been run to the 3 yard line when Rodgers had the chance do you think we kick the FG on 4th? If he ran to the 3 on 2nd down, maybe he would have avoided the decision altogether on 3rd down.

Kicking the FG in that scenario was correct. Down 8 we had to convert 4th and 9 AND the 2pt just to tie it. THEN we needed a stop.

Kick the FG down 5 we needed a stop. That doesn't change. Now if Rodgers can put it into the endzone with a fresh setup its a win. Don't even need the PAT at that point.

Bottom line is the D didn't get the stop. If we had tied it with a miracle 4th and 9 TD AND gotten the deuce and then didn't get a stop we lose to a FG. We needed a stop either way.

Oh...and fail on 4th like we did on 1st, 2nd and 3rd, game is over unless...you guessed it, we get a stop, a TD AND a 2pt. Then we get to OT.

Game theory says kick the FG. But if its 4th and 3....game theory odds might tilt to going for it.

Your understanding of game theory ain’t up to date, hombre.

On 4th down, the Packers had a 10.8 percent chance of winning the game had they gone for it. 7.8 percent with a field goal. Furthermore, Josh Fucking Rosen wasn’t playing QB for the Pack that day. In case you haven’t heard, the Great Arm of Butte is pretty good. With 12, there was a 33 percent chance the Packers woulda scored a TD on 4th down, which was above the 20 percent threshold to justify going for it in such situation.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/.amp/news/heres-the-analytics-against-lafleurs-fourth-down-decision

[Fritz]

Look, this was always about Rodgers forcing a long term commitment. He got them to lop off the last year, so now they have to negotiate with him now on a new 4 year deal. Both sides know the score. If Love isn't a stud by end of season they will give Rodgers a total record deal replacing the last year of his contract. $165 million for 4 years with $80 million locked in. Rodgers is part owner of the Bucks. His legacy is Green Bay. He knows it. He never intended to leave. If he has an off year and Love looks awesome is the only way he is dealt. He is pissed about them making a contingency plan and he leveraged his MVP season. If he cared about Jordy he would have said something then. He only cares because this time it was him.

So from your perspective, when Rodgers said his refusing of the Packers' offseason offer proved it wasn't about the money, it was because the offer was just a raise and not an extension?

As for the boldfaced part above, I would suggest that since Rodgers wants more say in personnel matters, they make him part of the Russ Ball salary cap team, so that when Rodgers wants the team to re-sign an aging veteran friend of his, they can ask him to "help us understand how this will fit under the cap, both long- and short-term, given our quarterback's rather large chunk of said cap."

[bobblehead]

Your understanding of game theory ain’t up to date, hombre.

On 4th down, the Packers had a 10.8 percent chance of winning the game had they gone for it. 7.8 percent with a field goal. Furthermore, Josh Fucking Rosen wasn’t playing QB for the Pack that day. In case you haven’t heard, the Great Arm of Butte is pretty good. With 12, there was a 33 percent chance the Packers woulda scored a TD on 4th down, which was above the 20 percent threshold to justify going for it in such situation.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/.amp/...-down-decision

Nice thing about game theory. The input measures determine how it games out. If you factor that 4th and 9 as the same as any down getting 9 yards, or do you use historical data? Do you calculate 3 yards on any goal line situation or do you use only 2pt conversions (or do you use getting 3 yards from anywhere anytime)? Do you factor in the fact that refs swallow the whistle on PI in those scenarios historically?

I stand by my own analysis. Rodgers should have shown some heart on 2nd down, or even 3rd down if he wanted to go for it on 4th down.

Show me real data saying that scoring a TD on 4th and 9 is over 15% (as it would have to be likely 40% to give you a 10.8% chance to win considering the other things you need to happen) I'm not buying your authors conclusion. Now if he is using the odds of getting 9 yards on any given play from anywhere on the field....maybe.