More Banjo - Packers at Lions

[ThunderDan]

We scored on a fake FG a while ago. It was against the Bears and I was at the game. Tom Crabtree got a shovel pass and ran it in.

[George Cumby]

Enjoy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8BZwImBRDY

[sharpe1027]

How has Campbell (The king of "go for it") fared recently? I think I understand probabilities better than the vast majority of the population but those probabilities don't factor in a lot of things. If my defense is lights out against a bad offense and my offense is facing a really good defense do the probabilities stay static vs. historical averages??

He's done just fine on average. Maximizing your chances doesn't mean it works out every time or you win every game. It's just shifting the odds slightly. The rest is up to the players and luck.

[sharpe1027]

It also doesn’t take into account emotion and momentum in the game.

When the Packers stuff the Lions deep in our territory it gives us a huge boost. Taking the 3 makes it a 1 score game again and doesn’t pump up the other team.

Making a first on a fourth down is also a huge boost, and you still have the ball.

[Fritz]

Enjoy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8BZwImBRDY

That WAS fun to watch.

So . . . when do we gotta start thinking about da Bears??

[ThunderDan]

Making a first on a fourth down is also a huge boost, and you still have the ball.

The problem I have with the whole process is that usually you are not guaranteed a TD even if you convert on 4th down.

[bobblehead]

He's done just fine on average. Maximizing your chances doesn't mean it works out every time or you win every game. It's just shifting the odds slightly. The rest is up to the players and luck.

I guess my point is that there is no way a statistician can calculate the variables for every situation and come up with a static answer that applies to even 80% of the real world situations. Its just junk science. You show me the methodology and I'll poke 100 holes in the logic. Better yet, you tell me the conclusion you want to draw and I'll show you mathematically why its the right call.

[bobblehead]

Making a first on a fourth down is also a huge boost, and you still have the ball.

But how often do you THEN settle for a FG anyway? How often do you turn it over and lose the 3 you had? And don't get me started on the 1000 other micro variables that can alter a the past history compared to today here and now.

[pbmax]

Evan Williams, run stopper from the deep half.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/green-bay-packers-analysis/75641/evan-williams-safety-statistics-performance-detroit-lions

I would recommend heading to Farrar's Twitter link in the story, he's got good video (four of them) showing what Williams can do in run support.

[George Cumby]

Evan Williams, run stopper from the deep half.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/green-bay-packers-analysis/75641/evan-williams-safety-statistics-performance-detroit-lions

I would recommend heading to Farrar's Twitter link in the story, he's got good video (four of them) showing what Williams can do in run support.

There's actually eight vids, four from Det, four from earlier in the season.

But all illustrate the point that 33 is REALLY good. His ceiling is very high. Dude is like The Predator back there.

[sharpe1027]

The problem I have with the whole process is that usually you are not guaranteed a TD even if you convert on 4th down.

Agreed that's highly relevant. It is, however, taken into consideration when they look at the statistics.

[sharpe1027]

I guess my point is that there is no way a statistician can calculate the variables for every situation and come up with a static answer that applies to even 80% of the real world situations. Its just junk science. You show me the methodology and I'll poke 100 holes in the logic. Better yet, you tell me the conclusion you want to draw and I'll show you mathematically why its the right call.

It's not perfect. Here's how I look at it. You can use the best data and analysis possible to make a decision, or you can throw that out because it's not perfect and make a decision based on what? Intuition? .

[pbmax]

There's actually eight vids, four from Det, four from earlier in the season.

But all illustrate the point that 33 is REALLY good. His ceiling is very high. Dude is like The Predator back there.

He's got some ground to make up in coverage though, pardon the pun.

[George Cumby]

He's got some ground to make up in coverage though, pardon the pun.

LOL.

[Fritz]

He's got some ground to make up in coverage though, pardon the pun.

I was listening to a Packer podcast (Jon Meerdkink? Is that his name?) yesterday and he agreed with a listener that Micah Hyde was a pretty good comparison.

More interesting to me is that he said that Ted Thompson kept arguing that Hyde should be playing safety and not the slot position. Dom Capers did not agree and kept Hyde at the slot. So when Hyde came up for possible re-signing, Ted said basically well, if you're going to keep him at the slot when he should be a safety, then we're not paying the high safety-like dollars Hyde wants when slot corners (at that time) make less.

I did not know that. Ted was already apparently physically diminishing, but was not yet so far gone mentally that he couldn't scout a player accurately.