Yes Bretsky, that's part of the risk we talk about. Moss's knees/ankles held up. Even if they didn't, it was a good, calculated risk to give up a 3rd rounder for him. I think Arrington was such a physically strong player that he was worth an investment as well. Woodson the same. Hindsight tells us that two were good and one bad. With that in mind it's probably not good to run around dumping dough on the UFA market. It just doesn't seem to be as reliable as signing your own (knowing their health history), drafting and using more low risk UFA moves (although some big ones do work out).
It's a complex risk/reward balance. It's something I think I have a feel for, but I don't have enough of a grasp of it to really explain it in a post (obvioulsy because I can't make you see what I see). There are a lot of variables and ultimately you have to balance it all out and put a number on what the player is worht. He might flop, but the reward potential has to be big enough to take that risk. With the way UFA is used by some desperate GM's, I don't think it's a very good way to build a team unless you have a winning team and older, good players want to be on yoru team. NE is benefiting by this.
It's a complex risk/reward balance. It's something I think I have a feel for, but I don't have enough of a grasp of it to really explain it in a post (obvioulsy because I can't make you see what I see). There are a lot of variables and ultimately you have to balance it all out and put a number on what the player is worht. He might flop, but the reward potential has to be big enough to take that risk. With the way UFA is used by some desperate GM's, I don't think it's a very good way to build a team unless you have a winning team and older, good players want to be on yoru team. NE is benefiting by this.


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