More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[call_me_ishmael]

Are you kidding? Just 200 something deaths compared to 4-5,000 in Italy or 12-13,000 in one year in this country from H1N1, as well as a huge recovery rate from the corona thing - obvious with the very mild symptoms of it, but still good news to everybody except the Trump haters.

250 today, 500 Sunday, 1000 Tuesday, 2000 Thursday, 4000 Saturday, 8000 Monday, 16000 Wednesday, 32000 Friday, 64K Sunday, and so forth.

People *actually* quarantined here and took it seriously - thankfully - so we'll see if those numbers come to fruition. That's your curve, though.

[pbmax]

The most accurate statistical breakdown I have seen said that without drastic measures the death totals would have been 200k to 400k. Compare that to the annual flu which is 15k to 30k and you see the difference. Part of that is its more deadly and part of that is that its more easily transmissible. The entirely most conservative estimate with standard warnings and high alert measures only came it at about 90k.

Where did you get the numbers Bobble? Would like to read them.

[pbmax]

260 dead as of this morning.

[mraynrand]

250 today, 500 Sunday, 1000 Tuesday, 2000 Thursday, 4000 Saturday, 8000 Monday, 16000 Wednesday, 32000 Friday, 64K Sunday, and so forth.

People *actually* quarantined here and took it seriously - thankfully - so we'll see if those numbers come to fruition. That's your curve, though.

You’re predicting 64,000 dead in two weeks

[mraynrand]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

[Bretsky]

I feel for the elders who this is most dangerous to.

Putting me out of my misery would be a kindness at this point.

really sorry to hear you had a shit day Mad

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

Nice report, but in my mind, it fails to address two things;

1) What politician, or any person, wants to make a decision that ultimately could cause additional deaths? That is why most countries are following the same pattern, i.e. what seems to be working in other countries is a good plan for us, at least until something else works better.

2) The reports of people getting reinfected may mean it is mutating, so suppressing the infection rate as quickly as possible reduces the time for mutations.

Finally, we are starting to see more and more studies on coronavirus, sometimes conflicting studies. The more we study this, the better (hopefully) we will understand how to proceed. In the meantime, isn't it better to be safe than sorry?

[call_me_ishmael]

You’re predicting 64,000 dead in two weeks

Yeah. Maybe. It seems like it takes awhile to kick the bucket with this. Maybe three. Really depends how many people stayed home and continue to social distance. It’s hard to project because states and cities took the appropriate measures that the fed is too pussy to do.

There will be two million cases in two weeks unless A) we don’t have enough tests to verify or B) people continue to socially distance themselves bigly.

The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.

https://t.co/eUvCmFM0lU?amp=1

[pbmax]

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699?s=21

More and more this looks like evidence of an uncoordinated response.

And Aaron Ginn seems very sanguine about hospitals being overrun from the initial rush. UW put out a request for people to sew them masks yesterday. The Governor said that the Federal Emergency supplies contain more equipment and supplies, but it hasn’t arrived yet.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

What the fuck? You want us to trust an article on a wiki-ish site (anyone can publish on our site!), written by a Mongoloid-looking nerd asserting that the COVID-19 is a fucking computer virus?

[LEWCWA]

They also shot and burned about 20,000 people with the virus so the official death number wasn't included....death by bullet is a different category. Business people I know claim that their were over 6000 bodies burned in wuhan in a 3 week period in December. Satellite images and air samples of sulfur dioxide back that claim up. One "whistleblower" claimed it was much more than 6k. Something like 1200 a day for god only knows how long. Believe nothing coming out of china.

This I agree with "not believing any of China's numbers" The rest I have no idea about, lol. China's numbers just don't jive with the rest of the world!

[call_me_ishmael]

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/st...071645699?s=21

More and more this looks like evidence of an uncoordinated response.

And Aaron Ginn seems very sanguine about hospitals being overrun from the initial rush. UW put out a request for people to sew them masks yesterday. The Governor said that the Federal Emergency supplies contain more equipment and supplies, but it hasn’t arrived yet.

Froedert is asking for masks as well. Hell they will even take used safety goggles. What the actual fuck!!!

[bobblehead]

Source? I don't doubt since China's fucking crazy, but never the less, source?

I 100% doubt the numbers coming out of China and Japan. Not a doubt in my mind they're wrong.

I have already told you that there is no point in sourcing anything for you. Even after I refute you with sources and documentation you are back to your same schtick a week later. And 20k shot was half joke, but I also believe the measures they took.... I wouldn't want to live in such a country.

As for the numbers burned that is all over the place. No one can source it with absolute certainty, but as I said, air samples and satellite images source out that they are lying through their teeth.

[mraynrand]

I have already told you that there is no point in sourcing anything for you. Even after I refute you with sources and documentation you are back to your same schtick a week later. And 20k shot was half joke, but I also believe the measures they took.... I wouldn't want to live in such a country.

As for the numbers burned that is all over the place. No one can source it with absolute certainty, but as I said, air samples and satellite images source out that they are lying through their teeth.

Is there a metric (chart) showing relative levels of output year over year from China. Did someone do a comparison to previous years and also previous Body burning increases in China, like when they’ve pulverized bodies in the past?

I think China has about 7 million death/year. That’s around 20,000/day. Depending on the percent bodies normally incinerated, the increase due to a few thousand corona deaths might not even appear as a blip. However, it’s possible most of their dead are processed into Soylent Green to feed the Uyghurs so maybe you could see the increase after all....

[bobblehead]

Where did you get the numbers Bobble? Would like to read them.

Wish I could, but honestly I read so many reports, articles and statistical models that I can't even find most of them again. I have read a mountain of statistical models since Mid January (I became very interested when we shut down travel from china). Many are/were flawed. Some were silly. The assumptions were that we suddenly all start hugging and kissing like Italy and had a similar death rate as they were "guessing" china really had. Some were probably written by Tex assuming no one under 60 would die. The ones I tend to believe were assuming that without the drastic measures, most people would realize this one is bad and take extra measures themselves to avoid it. They assumed a 2% death rate (our medical is top notch, but would be over run). That is about 20x more deadly than the flu (people don't really try to avoid the flu). I believe china reported a 2.7% death rate. Its also considered slightly more contagious than the flu. So we lost 22k to the flu this year. Now multiply that by the range of 1% to 3% mortality rate and you get 220k to 660k. China locked it down, but didn't treat as aggressively as we would. They also smoke at a much higher rate and have worse air quality. Puts the U.S. much closer to 200k to 400k range. That is the gist of what I have read from many sources.