More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[LEWCWA]

[QUOTE=bobblehead;1052865]I don't buy certain numbers from the CDC. If normal flu is .1% and we lose 30k a year on average and we only lost 12.5k to h1n1 which we did virtually nothing to stop and only had 60.8 million cases then something doesn't add up.

Edit: Just looked it up to be sure. H1n1 From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

From that article. So far this season, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded 36 million flu cases in the U.S., with 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths. So this years NORMAL flu has killed almost 2x more people in almost half the cases as H1N1 did...something not adding up. This years normal flu was 3x more deadly than H1N1.[/QUOTE

As far as I understand- correct me if I'm wrong-- H1N1 is now part of our seasonal flu cocktail.

[mraynrand]

I understand this is your opinion, but that is a big part of the problem, you phrase it like it is fact. Thing is the guy who is supposed to be leading the charge in this is doing the same things. He states opinions daily as facts, his attention span compare to that of a kindergarten student...One day this is nothing and the few cases will be down to close to 0 next week, I saved countless lives banning travel from China, Uh oh this is getting pretty bad lets follow cdc guidelines to slow this thing down, hmmm the "cure" is now worse than the disease, and so on and so on. He is all over the map and his people are afraid to step on his toes when he floats opinion and fallacy.

These critiques are reasonable but...

You know at the end of the day I would have more respect for him if he had just dug his heals in and stayed his first course come hell or high water.

I don't believe this for a second. You'd be all over him.

[mraynrand]

But the partisan thing was the media and even the CDC. Their was a lot of hoopla about it being so nasty and all, but after the fact CDC numbers claim it was 4.5x LESS deadly than normal flu. I'm simply not buying it. Starting to buy into tex way of thinking. Numbers at the moment have Wuhan flu at 1.1% kill rate in U.S. So its 40x as deadly as previous "scary virsu".

So tex, to put into perspective since you aren't worried. If a normal 30 million people got this thing (if we did nothing) 330k people would die. So its not just the media, the threat is real. And Ismael....the media lies. The CDC is partisan. This doesn't have a "3-4%" death rate that was the early media hype. It wouldn't be a pandemic wiping out millions as the media made it out to be. As I said all along the truth lies in the middle.

The projected infections and death are based on modeling which assumes: where and when the virus originated, infection rate (which assumes things about weather and infectious nature of this class of viruses, but not necessarily this virus), mortality rates, no significant mutation to more or less virulent or deadly versions. The modeling software is over 15 years old (there was a fight on the internet about getting the code, which is in some old version of C. People were skeptical about retrieving it and the author was saying he would have to work with specific groups to retrieve it. Then some language I didn't quite understand about 'codecs', etc. which I assume makes the code readable by newer OSs). Whatever. Modeling always makes me nervous, because the only satisfactory modeling I've worked with has the known outcome as a test. And in this case, there are unknowns that were assumed which are changing as more data comes in.

[George Cumby]

The projected infections and death are based on modeling which assumes: where and when the virus originated, infection rate (which assumes things about weather and infectious nature of this class of viruses, but not necessarily this virus), mortality rates, no significant mutation to more or less virulent or deadly versions. The modeling software is over 15 years old (there was a fight on the internet about getting the code, which is in some old version of C. People were skeptical about retrieving it and the author was saying he would have to work with specific groups to retrieve it. Then some language I didn't quite understand about 'codecs', etc. which I assume makes the code readable by newer OSs). Whatever. Modeling always makes me nervous, because the only satisfactory modeling I've worked with has the known outcome as a test. And in this case, there are unknowns that were assumed which are changing as more data comes in.

Fair point on the modeling.

But can we not look at the current growth curves and extrapolate from there? Pretty concerning.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Fosco33]

‘Regular’ flu is actually many different strains (including h1n1). There are typically two main types with many varieties.

The flu vaccine year to year is a guess based on other countries and their projections. Some years it’s more effective than others.

Social distancing does work. Every year the flu is knocked back a bit with kids out of school. Humidity helps our natural immune response as well. So - at the end of this cycle (before it comes back) - it’s be idiotic to say this is the mortality rate. Because the underlying assumption is full/normal activities. Just wash your hands and stay away from high risk folks and work/public places if you’re definitely sick.... like normal.

My wife’s uncle had a death in his family from covid in Cali - 60s, lifetime vegetarian and homeopathic ‘doctor’. He didn’t take the fever/cough seriously enough and went to hospital too late.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Went to Walmart this morning at 6am for the 'old folks' shopping hour so I could as Walmart put it, avoid the crowds. Well, they were packed, lined up outdoors like sardines. Lotsa old people in Rhinelander I guess...

[George Cumby]

Went to Walmart this morning at 6am for the 'old folks' shopping hour so I could as Walmart put it, avoid the crowds. Well, they were packed, lined up outdoors like sardines. Lotsa old people in Rhinelander I guess...

Did you stay or did you go?

[Zool]

Did you stay or did you go?

He was undecided. He was worried about trouble, and also about it being doubled.

[mraynrand]

Fair point on the modeling.

But can we not look at the current growth curves and extrapolate from there? Pretty concerning.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

That's a good point too, so it should be possible to map back on the original model and say whether it's following predicted rates so as to allow for model adjustment. I'd like to see someone do this for Italy SK and maybe even Germany as the number of deaths/day is no longer rising, suggesting top of the bell curve. (still, for Italy you have to separate out co-morbidity deaths, because Italy scores a death as corona if the postmortem shows an infection, even if the cause of death might be something else).

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Did you stay or did you go?

Didn't get in line, but went in and got my supply of cookies The very weird thing was I saw lots of people wearing masks. I mean, honestly, I never thought I would see that here.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

That's a good point too, so it should be possible to map back on the original model and say whether it's following predicted rates so as to allow for model adjustment. I'd like to see someone do this for Italy SK and maybe even Germany as the number of deaths/day is no longer rising, suggesting top of the bell curve. (still, for Italy you have to separate out co-morbidity deaths, because Italy scores a death as corona if the postmortem shows an infection, even if the cause of death might be something else).

But I think I just saw something to the effect that Italy just had their 2nd worst day ever today, so not sure they are top of the bell. As far as dead people who were infected but death caused by something else, I think that may be splitting hairs.

[George Cumby]

Sigmoid curves not belll, I think.

[mraynrand]

But I think I just saw something to the effect that Italy just had their 2nd worst day ever today, so not sure they are top of the bell. As far as dead people who were infected but death caused by something else, I think that may be splitting hairs.

Well, it may be wrong, but it's not splitting hairs. 45% of the dead counted as corona deaths had 3 other illnesses. So it's entirely possible that they died of from one or more of those illnesses.

[mraynrand]

Sigmoid curves not belll, I think.

sure

[mraynrand]

This is an Oxford study which is the model I was proposing several days ago, based on reports of very high transmission. If the virus is highly transmissible, it's very likely a lot more people are already infected.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-...f-41bea055720b

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https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.