Is Aaron Rodgers more of the problem than we might think?

[MadScientist]

Why is it everyone backpedals to the ego claim when all other arguments have failed?

What you call ego is offensive design, largely.

Please see 2016 offense again. When the ONLY offense available was his extended play offense. This was after 2 years of big offensive slowdowns and creeping shortness of routes. When asked about the fix for such things, prior to the start of 2016, the head coach said we need to do less scheming and more winning one on one battles.

When this offense tried to go short, it sputtered. The slowdowns in 2014, especially 2015 and the beginning of 2016 featured a TON of short routes that went nowhere. Just think about Dick Rod on a flat route. Really think about it fits into your narrative. I want you to think about why your ego mad QB kept throwing that stupid, failed, miserable route to Richard Rodgers. That route took 3 years off red's life expectancy. Who wanted that fu**ing route run?

Think about the WR bubble screens. Ego or offensive design? Those took 2 years off my life expectancy.

Sure, Rodgers will throw 4 deep passes more than Brady in a game on 3rd and short. When the offense had overwhelming talent outside, it worked like no one's business. When that talent edge started the crumble, the offense started to fail and that shot play cost them dearly at times. But it needed to work because it was the entire basis of the offense at that point.

That isn't ego. That is problematic design. Even when he was young and was the check down king, this offense never specialized in long, multi-play drives.

The McCarthy offense thrived on going deep and getting offenses into dime packages so it could run. When the deep passing game failed, it all started to come apart.

That TE rout was a perfectly fine play, but the Packers had a pile of shit TE who couldn't run. MM & co should have given up on that after 1 or 2 tries.

The thing that we were seeing was that after the quick routes weren't there, Rodgers only bothered with the extended plays. Defenses adjusted and the extended plays weren't there anymore, and that opened up some of the quick, short plays, but Rodgers didn't seem to be looking for them anymore.

[gbgary]

Remind me how the Atlanta Super Bowl ended? How'd that offense fare in the second half?

Kinda the same as the Rams in the last Super Bowl?

How did this offense do without Garapolo in San Fran last year?

No offense is designed to need to be saved on a play. Yet defenses stop offenses a fair amount. It doesn't matter how good the design is, defenses are good at their job.

no question and you're talking about two super bowl teams, one with basically a rookie at qb, who were stopped by a defensive genius. you could also say those teams were their own worst enemies in those games. can you imagine this O with a compliant rodgers? it should be great. too bad he's not in late 20's with a friendly contract.

[RashanGary]

Pb, I guess we see it differently. I see Rodgers overrode and ignore MMs plan. So I see it as Rodgers trying to be bigger than common sense. Not as McCarthys system ignoring 1/3 of the field.

[RashanGary]

It was never McCarthys plan for Favre to throw into triple coverage. It’s not McCarthys plan for Rodgers to ignore 1/3 of the field, and hold the ball until a receiver has two full yards of separation. And I don’t believe it was ever McCarthys plan to pass 70% of the snaps. But here we are. New coach, same problem.

[Upnorth]

I still maintain that anyone who thinks a qb is thinking about there ego when they are scrambling needs to re-evaluate how people react under short high intense pressure situations.
Even at the extreme 7 seconds the qb does not have ego enter in. Bullriders `win`when they hit 8 seconds, of which their first priority is stay the fuck alive followed by form that they have practiced since they were teens. Just like a qb. Absolutely no time for ego, the human brain is not wired for ego in high adrenaline situations.

[run pMc]

I think it's fair to say M3 and Rodgers didn't see eye-to-eye on the offense and playcalling.
I also think it's fair to say that Rodgers has a pretty strong interest in giving MLF a shot and not being labelled a coach-killer. If MLF limits what Rodgers can audible out of, that's ok with me. I don't know that I like the articles where they are supposedly trying to mash an offense together based on Rodgers ad-libbing and MLF's playbook.

All the stories about MLF and Rodgers that I've read at this point seem like outside the building speculation, and we'll have a good idea by the time Week 4 rolls around and they've played CHI, MIN, and DEN -- all very good defenses.

[pbmax]

So if Michael Bay is Mike McCarthy and Ben Affleck is Aaron Rodgers, who is Liv Tyler?

I prefer Olivia Munn, but I suppose its been recast as Danica Patrick.

[pbmax]

Pb, I guess we see it differently. I see Rodgers overrode and ignore MMs plan. So I see it as Rodgers trying to be bigger than common sense. Not as McCarthys system ignoring 1/3 of the field.

How often did this occur before the run the table in 2016?

[pbmax]

Here is the crucial question:

When and how did McCarthy's offense die an unexpected death?

In 2012, there was a drop off after the record breaking offense of 2011. But they scored 433 points, so doesn't seem that terrible.

In 2013, someone got hurt. Offense still scored 417 point. I think most of that was against Detroit.

In 2014, MVP year. Odd year. Wasn't there a slow start and he came on? 486 points. Not much slowdown, but I think there were signs.

In 2015, offense was a mess even with JJ back to help replace Nelson. 368 points. This was tough, whatever plan there was went out the window when Nelson got hurt.

In 2016, the run the table year. Rodgers pulled a LOT of games out late and the offense was a mess for half the year. Getting Cook back helped. None of the offense that worked seemed like McCarthys.

In 2017, QB injury, no Scott Tolzien or Matt Flynn, 320 points.

In 2018, QB injury but keeps playing, 376 points. Starting QB paying but results like his injury year of 2013.

[pbmax]

Rodgers games under 100 QB rating (I don't think that mark is particularly menaingful, I just want to remember some games where the offense struggled)

                                                                                                           
                                                  Pass Pass  Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass  Pass  Pass
Rk          Player        Date Opp  Result G# Day  Cmp  Att  Cmp%  Yds   TD  Int Rate   Sk  Yds   Y/A  AY/A
1    Aaron Rodgers  2012-09-09 SFO L 22-30  1 Sun   30   44 68.18  303    2    1 93.3    3   24  6.89  6.77
2    Aaron Rodgers  2012-09-13 CHI W 23-10  2 Thu   22   32 68.75  219    1    1 85.3    5   31  6.84  6.06
3    Aaron Rodgers  2012-09-24 SEA L 12-14  3 Mon   26   39 66.67  223    0    0 81.5    8   39  5.72  5.72
4    Aaron Rodgers  2012-10-28 JAX W 24-15  8 Sun   22   35 62.86  186    2    0 95.7    2   14  5.31  6.46
5    Aaron Rodgers  2012-11-04 ARI W 31-17  9 Sun   14   30 46.67  218    4    1 96.9    1   10  7.27  8.43
6    Aaron Rodgers  2012-11-25 NYG L 10-38 11 Sun   14   25 56.00  219    1    1 81.9    5   29  8.76  7.76
7    Aaron Rodgers  2012-12-02 MIN W 23-14 12 Sun   27   35 77.14  286    1    1 98.0    2    3  8.17  7.46
8    Aaron Rodgers  2012-12-09 DET W 27-20 13 Sun   14   24 58.33  173    0    0 80.7    3   25  7.21  7.21\

9    Aaron Rodgers  2013-09-22 CIN L 30-34  3 Sun   26   43 60.47  244    1    2 64.5    4   27  5.67  4.05
10   Aaron Rodgers  2013-10-13 BAL W 19-17  5 Sun   17   32 53.13  315    1    1 84.8    3   17  9.84  9.06
11   Aaron Rodgers  2013-11-04 CHI L 20-27  8 Mon    1    2 50.00   27    0    0 95.8    1    3 13.50 13.50
12   Aaron Rodgers  2013-12-29 CHI W 33-28 16 Sun   25   39 64.10  318    2    2 85.2    3    5  8.15  6.87

13   Aaron Rodgers  2014-09-04 SEA L 16-36  1 Thu   23   33 69.70  189    1    1 81.5    3   14  5.73  4.97
14   Aaron Rodgers  2014-09-21 DET  L 7-19  3 Sun   16   27 59.26  162    1    0 88.8    2   15  6.00  6.74
15   Aaron Rodgers  2014-10-12 MIA W 27-24  6 Sun   24   42 57.14  264    3    0 99.7    3   16  6.29  7.71
16   Aaron Rodgers  2014-10-26 NOR L 23-44  8 Sun   28   39 71.79  418    1    2 93.7    3   19 10.72  8.92
17   Aaron Rodgers  2014-12-14 BUF L 13-21 14 Sun   17   42 40.48  185    0    2 34.3    1   10  4.40  2.26

18   Aaron Rodgers  2015-10-04 SFO  W 17-3  4 Sun   22   32 68.75  224    1    0 99.0    3   24  7.00  7.63
19   Aaron Rodgers  2015-10-11 STL W 24-10  5 Sun   19   30 63.33  241    2    2 82.8    2    5  8.03  6.37
20   Aaron Rodgers  2015-11-01 DEN L 10-29  7 Sun   14   22 63.64   77    0    0 69.7    3   27  3.50  3.50
21   Aaron Rodgers  2015-11-08 CAR L 29-37  8 Sun   25   48 52.08  369    4    1 96.6    5   38  7.69  8.42
22   Aaron Rodgers  2015-11-15 DET L 16-18  9 Sun   35   61 57.38  333    2    0 83.6    3    8  5.46  6.11
23   Aaron Rodgers  2015-11-22 MIN W 30-13 10 Sun   16   34 47.06  212    2    0 86.9    2   16  6.24  7.41
24   Aaron Rodgers  2015-11-26 CHI L 13-17 11 Thu   22   43 51.16  202    1    1 62.4    2   14  4.70  4.12
25   Aaron Rodgers  2015-12-03 DET W 27-23 12 Thu   24   36 66.67  273    2    1 96.2    3   27  7.58  7.44
26   Aaron Rodgers  2015-12-13 DAL  W 28-7 13 Sun   22   35 62.86  218    2    0 99.5    2   13  6.23  7.37
27   Aaron Rodgers  2015-12-20 OAK W 30-20 14 Sun   22   39 56.41  204    1    1 68.8    2   14  5.23  4.59
28   Aaron Rodgers  2015-12-27 ARI  L 8-38 15 Sun   15   28 53.57  151    1    1 66.2    8   70  5.39  4.50
29   Aaron Rodgers  2016-01-03 MIN L 13-20 16 Sun   28   44 63.64  291    1    1 80.8    5   17  6.61  6.05

30   Aaron Rodgers  2016-09-11 JAX W 27-23  1 Sun   20   34 58.82  199    2    0 95.1    1    0  5.85  7.03
31   Aaron Rodgers  2016-09-18 MIN L 14-17  2 Sun   20   36 55.56  213    1    1 70.7    5   33  5.92  5.22
32   Aaron Rodgers  2016-10-09 NYG W 23-16  4 Sun   23   45 51.11  259    2    2 65.0    0    0  5.76  4.64
33   Aaron Rodgers  2016-10-16 DAL L 16-30  5 Sun   31   42 73.81  294    1    1 90.8    1    0  7.00  6.40
34   Aaron Rodgers  2016-11-06 IND L 26-31  8 Sun   26   43 60.47  297    3    1 94.8    3    8  6.91  7.26
35   Aaron Rodgers  2016-11-13 TEN L 25-47  9 Sun   31   51 60.78  371    2    2 79.8    5   46  7.27  6.29
36   Aaron Rodgers  2016-12-18 CHI W 30-27 14 Sun   19   31 61.29  252    0    0 87.0    4   27  8.13  8.13

37   Aaron Rodgers  2017-09-10 SEA  W 17-9  1 Sun   28   42 66.67  311    1    1 86.5    4   25  7.40  6.81
38   Aaron Rodgers  2017-09-17 ATL L 23-34  2 Sun   33   50 66.00  343    2    1 90.7    3   35  6.86  6.76
39   Aaron Rodgers  2017-10-15 MIN L 10-23  6 Sun    2    4 50.00   18    0    0 62.5    0    0  4.50  4.50
40   Aaron Rodgers  2017-12-17 CAR L 24-31 14 Sun   26   45 57.78  290    3    3 71.5    3   26  6.44  4.78

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/28/2019.

[hoosier]

Here is the crucial question:

When and how did McCarthy's offense die an unexpected death?

In 2012, there was a drop off after the record breaking offense of 2011. But they scored 433 points, so doesn't seem that terrible.

In 2013, someone got hurt. Offense still scored 417 point. I think most of that was against Detroit.

In 2014, MVP year. Odd year. Wasn't there a slow start and he came on? 486 points. Not much slowdown, but I think there were signs.

In 2015, offense was a mess even with JJ back to help replace Nelson. 368 points. This was tough, whatever plan there was went out the window when Nelson got hurt.

In 2016, the run the table year. Rodgers pulled a LOT of games out late and the offense was a mess for half the year. Getting Cook back helped. None of the offense that worked seemed like McCarthys.

In 2017, QB injury, no Scott Tolzien or Matt Flynn, 320 points.

In 2018, QB injury but keeps playing, 376 points. Starting QB paying but results like his injury year of 2013.

2015 @ Denver

[pbmax]

2012 was a struggle at times. They were 5-3 when he was under 100 PR. He worst was 80 versus Detroit.

2013 Four games under 100 PR. Worst was Cincy game, a Zimmer defensive special. Though some Bretsky disciple hurt the QB in November and he was out after 2 passes. 2-2 in these games that year.

2014 MVP year that featured 5 games under 100 PR. But only Buffalo was a tire fire. 2 of these games he was 90+. Seattle was the culprit in the second worst 81 PR game. In a possible sign the team is more QB dependent that ever, team is 1-4 in these games.

If you are like me, you are seeing some signs of the offense getting creaky, but I understand if you do not. The talent drain was full on though. Finley and JJ were gone. Nelson is about to get hurt and never really be the same.

2015 In games under 100 PR, team was 6-6. 4 games under 70 PR, 4 games over 90. Injuries wrecked this offense but they were still 10-6 and competitive. And if McCarthy has more than one 2 point conversion play he liked (remember Janis was hurt) the Packers are in the Championship game. This offense had no business going that deep.

For all the crap Capers deservedly takes, his defenses in 2012, 2015 and 2016 were playing well enough at the end to do some playoff damage if the offense could maintain. It couldn't.

2016 MVP caliber season, run the table, only Matt Ryan's marvelous year (in a Shanny Jr. offense) kept the QB off the award podium. 3-4 with the QB under 100. The only tire fire was the Giants at 65.

2017 Recorded 1-3 when under 100 PR but this was the Barr hit year and he wasn't right after returning and Carolina was the game that demonstrated it.

Scott Kacsmar makes an argument that Rodgers has been showing signs of decline since 2012, with his net yards per attempt really trending down.

But to me the evidence in chronological order is periodic slowdowns that looked different that anything in 2009 and 2010 starting in 2012 and continuing against good defenses through 2015. Remember the trouble they had with Zimmer, San Fran and Seattle (who they eventually solved). It all comes to a head with injuries wrecking the offense in 2015 and the team still going 10-6. That to me is the key, as McCarthy's solution, the short passing game, was a disaster and only heroics saved that offense.

And those heroics also saved the 2016 season and nearly got him another MVP.

Did he learn some bad traits on the way? Yes. But McCarthy never got his base offense on track again after the 2015 debacle.

[pbmax]

2015 @ Denver

Brutal game. That was a tough defense though.

[SudsMcBucky]

it would be a colossal mistake to bring in a coach, a completely different offense (that's dynamic and successful) and keep playing the stupid way they have been. the new O is designed to play fast, get the ball out quickly, make everyone a weapon, and keep the D off balance. it's not handcuffing rodgers. he won't need to "audible out of a run" ffs. everything's predicated off the D's reaction to the situation and the O's motion. there should be a lot less pressure on rodgers and the o-line. goff was sacked 16 fewer times than rodgers last year. he was better than rodgers in almost every catagory. outside of the two-minute o, scrambling (because he or someone else didn't do their job), or the defense doing something completely stupid pre-snap, rodgers shouldn't
go off-script, and i don't want to see it otherwise. it's not just rodgers being defiant, he'd be encouraging it from others...undermining MLF, proving he's uncoachable, and making the whole new-coach/offense process a waste of time...when there isn't any to waste. might as well have kept mccarthy.

Only problem is LaFleur didn't coach Goff last year.

[run pMc]

Did he learn some bad traits on the way? Yes. But McCarthy never got his base offense on track again after the 2015 debacle.

pb, I'm coming around to that...going off the data. If you play with your data table you'll see the number of games with Rodgers having QB rating < 90 goes up starting in 2015. A QB's numbers are impacted by so many other things (deflected/dropped balls, bad OL, poor surrounding talent, etc.) that it's hard to point to one thing, but it's interesting to note and consider.

http://pfref.com/tiny/pcUkF

(Interesting note: Rodgers had a bunch of games in 2010 w/ rating under 90, but they also had a monster defense -- best scoring D and best point differential in the NFC -- to lean on. I still recall the 9-0 NYJ game.)


I also wonder if the 2014 SEA-Bostick heartbreak game and the way M3 called it had something to do with Rodgers going into 2015 and beyond...