Is Aaron Rodgers even good anymore?

[pbmax]

Football Outsiders has the Packers' O as 5th in DVOA, surprisingly enough.

They've been Top 10 or 12 for a long stretch of the season, which is one reason to suspect the team is getting results worse than it performance would normally earn.

[Joemailman]

They've been Top 10 or 12 for a long stretch of the season, which is one reason to suspect the team is getting results worse than it performance would normally earn.

But what are they doing badly that DVOA doesn't pick up on? I'm kind of wondering how a passing offense that is among the worst in completion percentage and sacks allowed could have such a relatively high passing DVOA.

[pbmax]

But what are they doing badly that DVOA doesn't pick up on? I'm kind of wondering how a passing offense that is among the worst in completion percentage and sacks allowed could have such a relatively high passing DVOA.

I haven't been keeping up with them, but the baseline calculation is, down by down, are you getting a plus grade on the play? Similar to coaches grading players. Get at least 4 yards on first down? Get half the remaining yardage on second and on third down get past the sticks.

So Rodgers increased Yards Per Attempts helps here, he can move the ball and avoid 3rd downs while getting first downs. They can score from depth. Jones has scored from place other than 3rd down. So 3rd down failures and red zone problems, which count against them, aren't as numerous as they could be with a less talented QB.

They are getting an opponent adjustment in their favor for the defenses they have faced (Buffalo, Sea, Vikes twice. and Bears).

They are also getting credit for some garbage time offense versus Washington and Detroit.

They could goose this number by running a bit more, especially after teams adjust in second half. The weird thing is that Jones should be MORE effective in the 2nd half after teams adjust to the opening script and drop safeties into coverage.

[pbmax]

But what are they doing badly that DVOA doesn't pick up on? I'm kind of wondering how a passing offense that is among the worst in completion percentage and sacks allowed could have such a relatively high passing DVOA.

Here's the explanation about how you win DVOA but lose the game to Seattle:

This was not the only game this week where the winning team had the lower DVOA rating. The first game of the week really stands out, as Green Bay lost to Seattle but earns 45.3% DVOA compared to -10.6% DVOA for the Seahawks. Green Bay outgained Seattle 7.5 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play; there were no interceptions and Seattle had both of the game's fumbles. Seattle did a much better job of grouping its successful plays into extended drives, as Green Bay had only one drive of seven plays while Seattle had five drives of at least seven plays. That big DVOA difference moves Green Bay up to No. 8 while Seattle drops from No. 8 to No. 12.

In some ways, this might be the worst kind of team for McCarthy to coach given his predilection for weird game management. His defense can be good but it not reliable. His offense runs hot and cold and is especially cold in the 2nd half unless the game is beyond two scores and the defense backs off. Its a tailored made McCarthy underperformance unit.

[mraynrand]

They could goose this number by running a bit more, especially after teams adjust in second half. The weird thing is that Jones should be MORE effective in the 2nd half after teams adjust to the opening script and drop safeties into coverage.

I wonder if more teams will try crowding the A gaps with LBs. Presumably, MN did that because their LBS are pretty athletic and can drop into coverage pretty fast. Still, the counter to that is interesting, since it can stop a run call and make Rodgers jumpy expecting immediate pass rush. One counter would be to set up a short slant/drag into the LB zone (if the LBs rush) and/or RPO look with a hand off to the back if the LBs sprint back into coverage on the snap. Thoughts?

[pbmax]

I wonder if more teams will try crowding the A gaps with LBs. Presumably, MN did that because their LBS are pretty athletic and can drop into coverage pretty fast. Still, the counter to that is interesting, since it can stop a run call and make Rodgers jumpy expecting immediate pass rush. One counter would be to set up a short slant/drag into the LB zone (if the LBs rush) and/or RPO look with a hand off to the back if the LBs sprint back into coverage on the snap. Thoughts?

Its a hallmark of Zimmer to pressure the A gaps just like Capers did. Only Zimmer's goal is to induce confusion if I understand correctly. He doesn't blitz at an extraordinarily high rate.

But its good plan for an offensive team that doesn't like to throw into the middle of the field. The obvious answer is backs to the flat or short outside zone and TE down the seam. Or slants.

It should be a simple WCO offense call to flood a zone that is missing a backer and get someone open against a LB out of position. You could play action or RPO the LB and if he drops off, then hand it off.

Someone said the WR blocking was bad. The other thing you could do is legally crack back all those inside defenders and toss the ball to the edge like on the first TD.

This is more Nutz area of expertise. I have never designed an offense. I just yell at it while its on TV.

[Bossman641]

Here's the explanation about how you win DVOA but lose the game to Seattle:



In some ways, this might be the worst kind of team for McCarthy to coach given his predilection for weird game management. His defense can be good but it not reliable. His offense runs hot and cold and is especially cold in the 2nd half unless the game is beyond two scores and the defense backs off. Its a tailored made McCarthy underperformance unit.

So DVOA tends to overinflate big play, quick strike performances?

[pbmax]

So DVOA tends to overinflate big play, quick strike performances?

Maybe? It will overestimate your offense if you tend to move the ball but don't score a ton it would seem.

The theory is that possession is the big controlling factor in football. Better to have it and struggle a bit than not have it. But you just have to look at NE #7 rating and see that its fine with ball control 10 play drives for scores too.

Packer are just missing the big passing plays for scores this year. Only Adams is a regular threat. MVS and Allison got deep occasionally.

[denverYooper]

I wonder if more teams will try crowding the A gaps with LBs. Presumably, MN did that because their LBS are pretty athletic and can drop into coverage pretty fast. Still, the counter to that is interesting, since it can stop a run call and make Rodgers jumpy expecting immediate pass rush. One counter would be to set up a short slant/drag into the LB zone (if the LBs rush) and/or RPO look with a hand off to the back if the LBs sprint back into coverage on the snap. Thoughts?

They had Harrison Smith up close as well. That seemed to cause extra indecision.

[pbmax]

They had Harrison Smith up close as well. That seemed to cause extra indecision.

I think the pressure on the line stuff is important, but remember that Zimmer commented that his first adjustment was to drop a safety back into coverage when they were getting burned with Adams one on one outside.

Packers offense looked good until that adjustment.

Then once again versus a Cover 2 look with man underneath the Packers offense folded. Its been more than 10 years since that D befuddled McCarthy and his QB when the Bears ran it under Lovie. They still haven't solved it.

[CaptainKickass]

My theory on Rodgers - with the amazingly below his ability and his average performance this year, particularly the ducks, bounced balls and awkward throwing motions - is that the man is playing injured.
Chicago fucked him up AND he visibly fucked up his throwing hand at least twice during games and shown on replay. He won't be the same until maybe after this season is over. What we're seeing is a 75% Aaron Rodgers. And a 75% Aaron Rodgers is still better than the majority of NFL talent.

[run pMc]

Its a hallmark of Zimmer to pressure the A gaps just like Capers did. Only Zimmer's goal is to induce confusion if I understand correctly. He doesn't blitz at an extraordinarily high rate.

But its good plan for an offensive team that doesn't like to throw into the middle of the field. The obvious answer is backs to the flat or short outside zone and TE down the seam. Or slants.

It should be a simple WCO offense call to flood a zone that is missing a backer and get someone open against a LB out of position. You could play action or RPO the LB and if he drops off, then hand it off.

Someone said the WR blocking was bad. The other thing you could do is legally crack back all those inside defenders and toss the ball to the edge like on the first TD.

This is more Nutz area of expertise. I have never designed an offense. I just yell at it while its on TV.

Philly ate up the Vikings last year in the playoffs using slants. I feel like there are a lot more go routes, digs/comebacks, and deep outs than slants run by the Packers WR. You sure don't see a lot of throws to the RBs, at least not where it's a 1st or 2nd read in the progression.
I think the Packers are more interested in quick strike football than methodical drives, which IMO would benefit a defense that plays a lot of snaps. Would help out poor Kenny Clark and his 80% play snap usage. Trouble is, they have exactly ONE healthy veteran pass catcher, and now the OL is banged up. Maybe switching to a more run oriented offense is the way to go with Jamaal and A.Jones, at least against the Cardinals?

[Rutnstrut]

Philly ate up the Vikings last year in the playoffs using slants. I feel like there are a lot more go routes, digs/comebacks, and deep outs than slants run by the Packers WR. You sure don't see a lot of throws to the RBs, at least not where it's a 1st or 2nd read in the progression.
I think the Packers are more interested in quick strike football than methodical drives, which IMO would benefit a defense that plays a lot of snaps. Would help out poor Kenny Clark and his 80% play snap usage. Trouble is, they have exactly ONE healthy veteran pass catcher, and now the OL is banged up. Maybe switching to a more run oriented offense is the way to go with Jamaal and A.Jones, at least against the Cardinals?

There have been MANY times this season where switching to a run oriented O would be beneficial. Stubby and Rodgers refuse to do it, absolutely refuse. If it's working and they get tied or down by 3 with most of the second half left. Stubby or Rodgers panic and start throwing it deep, not very successfully either. Stubby sure as fuck is broken, I fear Rodgers is as well. They need someone new, with some balls and brains to fix it fast. That probably isn't possible. That's on Murphy for being happy with the status quo for years and letting things slide.

[pbmax]

It doesn't need to be a run oriented offense. If you ran Jones like he was DeMarco Murray or Derrick Henry, he' be out after the halfway mark of the season. You also would be underusing your best weapon. They do need to run more, especially in 2nd half and run more play action.

You need an offense that is built to sustain a drive with first downs, not big plays. They can no longer afford to abandon the middle of the field. Touchdown to check down has to be lit afire.

You run the fast and quick offense that showed up in one drive versus the Vikings last week and other times versus Bears and Vikings at home and you run it every other or every third series to preserve its effectiveness (now that i wrote it, might be too late to worry about it this year but whatever) until you can more fully flesh it out.

You hire an actual OC and put him in charge fo implementing it and calling it. Then you hire a game management guru put him in the booth with an electric shock trigger that reboots McCarthy when he starts calling timeouts on first down while playing defense at the end of the half.

[Rutnstrut]

I would PAY to be the one that gets to activate the shock collar.