Is Aaron Rodgers even good anymore?

[run pMc]

I'm not impressed with this year's draft crop of QBs.
I don't think signing Rodgers was a mistake -- they didn't exactly have someone in the pipeline (Kizer lol), and he hasn't been giving them the "will he, won't he" Favre retirement treatment.
Cousins fully guaranteed contract changed things IMO.
Silverstein's article feels like a clickbait assignment from the Editor's desk. I don't believe for a second he'd seriously entertain trading a proven QB for an unknown rookie QB and expect them to challenge for the NFCN when paired up with their defense and a first time head coach. I'm not even sure Matt Millen would do something that dumb. It's all just a mental exercise intended to get people's attention.

What's a QB who throws for 4000yds and doesn't turn the ball over worth? What are they worth if they've won the SB and been to the NFC Championship a few times and won the MVP?

[pbmax]

I'm not impressed with this year's draft crop of QBs.
I don't think signing Rodgers was a mistake -- they didn't exactly have someone in the pipeline (Kizer lol), and he hasn't been giving them the "will he, won't he" Favre retirement treatment.
Cousins fully guaranteed contract changed things IMO.
Silverstein's article feels like a clickbait assignment from the Editor's desk. I don't believe for a second he'd seriously entertain trading a proven QB for an unknown rookie QB and expect them to challenge for the NFCN when paired up with their defense and a first time head coach. I'm not even sure Matt Millen would do something that dumb. It's all just a mental exercise intended to get people's attention.

What's a QB who throws for 4000yds and doesn't turn the ball over worth? What are they worth if they've won the SB and been to the NFC Championship a few times and won the MVP?

It would be worth it if you doubted your ability to turn around the franchise on a dime. If you really needed a two year rebuild, tear it down to the studs.

Will be interesting to think about this after the draft: does Gute think he is in Year 2 of a reload or is it Year 1 of winning again?

[Rutnstrut]

They could have waited a year and then they would be bidding against the now known Wilson contract. Wilson (reportedly) just topped the biggest QB deal. AR would have had another poor year (2018), but I do not think that tempers the Packers or Rodgers salary expectations. His contract would therefore be larger. It would also have impeded FA signings this spring if they don't know the numbers. There is value to the team in having large costs known.

They could have waited 2 years and its possible another modest year lowers his cost. But its probably just as likely Rodgers carries the offense again and gets more expensive, though at this point, there could be true disagreement among the parties. This is where the Packers and Rodgers might really disagree about value and I think its almost impossible to sign Rodgers if they view him as declining in effectiveness while negotiating after the 2019 season.

Which raises a question: how many years do you need to pro-rate the bonus to make the contract doable? Packers traditionally have done the full five for market value signing bonuses. If you wait 2 seasons to sign a five year deal, then you really are playing with serious money at the end of his career. I think a fair judgement about Rodgers age and health mean the sooner you get the five year deal started, the better off you both are. I think both sides WANTED it to be done the same as last time, with 2 years to go.

I also sincerely doubt a QB of Rodgers stature would play for the tag. He'd hold out and wait for the collapse. If that is the team strategy, you need to invest first round resources in finding a QB to replace him because that replacement is not on the roster. You have two years to do it while you are pissing your current QB off. That might be four years of limbo trying to prepare for a QB succession. I don't think Gute or Murphy has that kind of patience.

Thompson pulled it off with a draft steal, 3 years of info about Rodgers and the whole organization behind him. Plus Favre using his leverage to get the team back into win now mode. Those factors aren't there anymore.

No, I don't think waiting to do a deal makes any sense. The only other plan that made sense was Gary's. He wanted to trade Rodgers before the deal was done, even soon enough to grab Mayfield.

That makes some sense, as the contract question goes away and you likely get maximum value back for Rodgers.

Mayfield struggled with that offense until Kitchens took it over and modified it. We'll see if it continues to upswing or people figure the two of them out. Unscouted looks are very valuable.

It's also very possible he gets hurt yet again this year, which would have made him even cheaper.

[pbmax]

It's also very possible he gets hurt yet again this year, which would have made him even cheaper.

Yeah, but what if he is hurt for four games and is lights out for 12? It could go a lot of ways. He was QB on a 4-1 team when Barr planted him. If its a separated shoulder rather than clavicle, 2017 looks very different.

But I am pretty sure both sides wanted to bet on the youngest version of Rodgers which is why both sides were happy to do the deal.

Its possible Murphy played a role because he was talking about it before Gute was. But Murphy seems like a consensus guy, so I think this was the personnel side's base position.

[gbgary]

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
For the #Seahawks and QB Russell Wilson, it’s a 4-year extension worth $140M, source said. He beats Aaron Rogers as the highest-paid player in the NFL.

another dumb qb contract.

[run pMc]

It would be worth it if you doubted your ability to turn around the franchise on a dime. If you really needed a two year rebuild, tear it down to the studs.

Will be interesting to think about this after the draft: does Gute think he is in Year 2 of a reload or is it Year 1 of winning again?

It would also be worth it if you could trade him for multiple picks a la the Khalil Mack trade and it was a good draft for QBs. It's awful hard to rebound without a quality starting QB, and when you find one you keep them until they aren't a quality-starter. I still think Rodgers is.
I agree it will be interesting to see Gute's approach and attitude. Hiring a young coach like LaFleur makes it a little harder to judge, but from a personnel side TT had a couple of dud drafts and IMO Gute is off to a reasonably good start at cleaning up the mess.

[texaspackerbacker]

It would be all out bonehead stupid to trade the GOAT QB who likely still has 5 to 10 years of excellency left and getting basically a pig in a poke - which is what happens when you draft even a QB of proven excellence in college. Even if you get lucky and the QB you draft turns out to be NFL-good, it's almost certain he will be way short of Aaron Rodgers-good.

[pbmax]

It would also be worth it if you could trade him for multiple picks a la the Khalil Mack trade and it was a good draft for QBs. It's awful hard to rebound without a quality starting QB, and when you find one you keep them until they aren't a quality-starter. I still think Rodgers is.
I agree it will be interesting to see Gute's approach and attitude. Hiring a young coach like LaFleur makes it a little harder to judge, but from a personnel side TT had a couple of dud drafts and IMO Gute is off to a reasonably good start at cleaning up the mess.

Agree about QB certainty. It would have been an easy call if you can get the #1 pick and Andrew Luck is available.

[run pMc]

As far as whether the timing was bad in signing Rodgers, I think signing him and extending the cost of the contract over more years is better, although it could be argued he might have costed less if they waited until this offseason (based on his recent performance). I doubt it though - QB contracts aren't going down. Paying out $100M in the first 12 months is pretty steep, but assuming MLF can keep him healthy he could have a bounceback year and make the argument feel silly in a year.

That said, how likely is Rodgers going to stay healthy for a full season? They will need to look at a quality backup/eventual successor, and Boyle is probably not it. Kizer frightens me. I don't think this is the draft for a successor, but I have to think they will look at next year's group.
Would you trade a R3 pick for Rosen?

[ThunderDan]

I would argue that ARod has a good chance of staying healthy all year.

It doesn't matter who you are if you get planted like ARod did by Anthony Barr you are going to break your collarbone. And getting your leg landed on by a 300 lbs person while in that position it is going to receive sever damage.

Those injuries to me is like an OL or DL getting rolled up from behind and blowing their knee or ankle out. It wasn't their fault and they aren't injury prone. Sometimes in a violent sport there is collateral damage.

[MadScientist]

I would argue that ARod has a good chance of staying healthy all year.

It doesn't matter who you are if you get planted like ARod did by Anthony Barr you are going to break your collarbone. And getting your leg landed on by a 300 lbs person while in that position it is going to receive sever damage.

Those injuries to me is like an OL or DL getting rolled up from behind and blowing their knee or ankle out. It wasn't their fault and they aren't injury prone. Sometimes in a violent sport there is collateral damage.

You make an argument that Rodgers is not inherently injury prone, but staying healthy all season will depend on having a line that can actually stop Mack and the other top rushers, having receivers that are getting open on time and Rodgers not holding the ball for the big play very much. If M3 were still in charge, I'd say Rodgers would be out by week 3. With the new staff, it might be hope and wishful thinking, but at least there is some cause for hope.

[denverYooper]

You make an argument that Rodgers is not inherently injury prone, but staying healthy all season will depend on having a line that can actually stop Mack and the other top rushers, having receivers that are getting open on time and Rodgers not holding the ball for the big play very much. If M3 were still in charge, I'd say Rodgers would be out by week 3. With the new staff, it might be hope and wishful thinking, but at least there is some cause for hope.

I think that was part of the goal in hiring the new staff -- get the ball out of Rodgers's hands faster, keep him from getting hit as much. My gut feeling is they'll get a bump for a while running a new system because they will be using their offensive personnel (esp Rodgers) differently than the last several years. The question will be what happens when the film catches up.

[pbmax]

I think that was part of the goal in hiring the new staff -- get the ball out of Rodgers's hands faster, keep him from getting hit as much. My gut feeling is they'll get a bump for a while running a new system because they will be using their offensive personnel (esp Rodgers) differently than the last several years. The question will be what happens when the film catches up.

I definitely think his offense helped assuage concerns, even if it wasn't priority one.

But now I really wish the Packers had kept JC Tretter, the poor man's Mike Flanagan*.



* I know, I know, from a cap perspective, it wasn't going to happen.

[gbgary]

please tell me it's not starting already. this doesn't sound like someone who's buying-in, wants to be coached, or wants to make the Packers O less predictable...

Rodgers wants to target Adams more in 2019

[texaspackerbacker]

It DISGUSTS me to even see this rotten excuse for a thread resurrected again. Fuck the God damned ingrates who see Aaron Rodgers as anything less than the best in the NFL now and in fact, the greatest ever.

Buying in? It sounds like some in here think the new coach is stupid enough to buy in to de-emphasizing the passing game and shit like that. Dream on.

I absolutely do not want Aaron Rodgers changing what he does. If there is any offensive changing going on, it should be a little bit more creativity in pass routes, emphasis on receivers continuing to try and get open after the original route, etc.

As for targeting Adams more, whatever. Probably that was just Rodgers giving a generic answer to a stupid question from the damned media. Spreading it around just for the sake of spreading it around is not a good thing, although I doubt Rodgers ever did that. It's more about hitting the open receiver. Making the young guys prove they can get open ain't a bad way to go. I expect MVS and St. Brown to do that way more than Cobb did. The media puke writing the article didn't even include Moore in his list of WRs. However, that probably says more about his poor quality of writing than anything else.